Ternary battery installations are rapidly catching up with lithium iron phosphate. Has the technical route for power lithium batteries been determined?

The technical route for power 102450 polymer battery is slowly changing the situation of lithium iron phosphate being the only dominant player. Since the beginning of this year, the rapid catch-up of ternary battery installations has exceeded the expectations of many people in the industry.

According to the power lithium-ion battery installation data compiled by relevant agencies, the installed capacity of ternary/manganese batteries was the largest in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 55% of 6.4GWh, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was rarely ranked second, accounting for 44.1% of 5.1GWh. It is worth noting that last year, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 71.5% of the installed capacity of 15.2GWh, while ternary/manganese batteries accounted for less than half of the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate, only 7.3GWh, accounting for only 26.3%.

Is the lithium iron phosphate route only being adhered to in my country?

Industry insiders told reporters that only my country is currently adhering to the lithium iron phosphate battery route. The United States, which originally advocated this route, has basically no battery manufacturers following this route as A123 Systems went bankrupt and Valence gradually declined.

"From another perspective, the large scale of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also added difficulty to the realization of my country's goal of 300Wh/kg for automotive batteries in 2020." Industry insiders added.

Lithium iron phosphate has always been widely used by power lithium-ion battery manufacturers due to its greater advantages in safety performance and cycle life. In particular, at the beginning of last year, Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, verbally issued a ban on the use of ternary batteries in pure electric buses, which strengthened the confidence of many power lithium-ion battery manufacturers to follow the lithium iron phosphate route. However, since this year, with the increase in policy requirements for the energy density of power 102450 polymer battery, lithium iron phosphate is generally considered to have reached its limit. Relatively speaking, ternary batteries are highly expected because of their high specific energy.

On November 16 this year, BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate route, said in an institutional investor survey that all of the company's PHEV passenger cars currently use ternary batteries. In the future, the company's plan may continue to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in the public transportation field, and other new models will use ternary batteries. According to BYD's plan, by the end of this year, there will be 16GWh of power lithium-ion battery production. Among them, 6GWh of ternary batteries, 10GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and 10GWh of ternary batteries will be added next year.

Even BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate route, has begun to "waver". Does it indicate that the technical route of power 102450 polymer battery has been determined? The reporter found in the interview that there are still many companies that insist on taking the lithium iron phosphate route. The person in charge of a power lithium-ion battery company in Shenzhen said that lithium iron phosphate has a long cycle life, strong safety and stability, is more environmentally friendly than ternary, and the cost is gradually decreasing. I believe it is still the mainstream choice.

The person in charge of the Shenzhen power lithium-ion battery company does not agree with the claim that lithium iron phosphate has reached a technical bottleneck in the industry. He said that the focus of continuous research and development of lithium iron phosphate is not the improvement of the material itself, but to study what kind of negative electrode material to match with lithium iron phosphate to better play its excellent performance.

"One is that it can be quickly charged at low temperature, and the other is that it can have a higher specific energy. The former is graphene material that can be quickly charged at low temperature. We have already promoted its use in many cities in the north. The latter has a higher specific energy. Carbon silicon material, and it must be nano-scale silicon. We are also increasing research and development on this." said the person in charge of the above-mentioned power lithium-ion battery company.

Monthly installed capacity is seriously unbalanced

In addition to the controversy over the technical route, whether the power lithium-ion battery is overproduced has also become the focus of discussion in the industry. According to the report released by the industry organization, more than half of the battery installed capacity in 2015 and 2016 was achieved in the last two months: 8.15GWh was installed in the last two months of 2015, accounting for 50.8% of the annual installed capacity; 14GWh was installed in the last two months of 2016, accounting for 50.3% of the annual installed capacity.

Industry insiders believe that the main reason for the previous two years was the annual adjustment of the subsidy policy. This year, the subsidy policy will not decline. It is expected that car companies will distribute processing tasks relatively evenly, and the rush to install at the end of the year will be alleviated.

According to preliminary statistics made by industry organizations this year, my country's automotive power lithium-ion battery production may have reached 130GWh, with an average monthly output of 11GWh. Does this mean a serious oversupply?

"I have consulted and investigated many companies on this issue, including Farasis Energy, BYD Battery, Zhenhua New Energy, SAIC Times, etc. They all admit that the overall production of power 102450 polymer battery is in excess, but it is only a structural oversupply, and the effective output and high-quality output may not be in excess." Industry insiders said.

In the view of many industry insiders, the serious imbalance of monthly installation volume is one of the main reasons for the oversupply of automotive power 102450 polymer battery. In addition, the rumored 8GWh policy and the optimistic attitude towards the development of electric vehicles are also the reasons for the oversupply.

However, there are different voices in the capital market regarding oversupply. Wu Xinjun, chairman and founder of Jinshajiang Capital, said that the power lithium-ion battery industry was still in its infancy in the past few years and is still a sunrise industry today. As for the outside world's concerns about whether my country's production is oversupplied, it may not be enough.

"At present, whether it is Guangdong, Jiangsu or Tianjin, the production is still limited to 1GWh to 2GWh, but a factory in Germany is 30GWh. If we still stay here, there will definitely be no competitive advantage. To achieve scale and increase volume, on the one hand, we need to build new factories, and on the other hand, we need to renovate old factories." Wu Xinjun said.

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