lithium carbonate fell again!

Since the price of lithium carbonate fell in April, the price of lithium carbonate still did not rebound trend. By the end of July, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 93,600 yuan / ton, down 19.3% compared with 116,000 yuan / ton on April 1, down 68% compared with the same period last year; the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 yuan / ton, down 12% from 107,000 yuan / ton on April 1, down 67% compared with the same period last year.

Supply side: in the first half of the year, the supply of lithium resources is loose, overseas supply continues to increase, domestic lithium mining is accelerating, and at the same time, the recycling of lithium is also accelerating the layout, and the total end is bad. In this case, lithium carbonate enterprises choose to stop production and guarantee the price. According to statistics, in July, 7 domestic production enterprises stopped production for maintenance, which is expected to reduce the supply by 1400 tons, but the effect of the price increase is not obvious, and the oversupply situation in the field has not been significantly improved.

Demand side: the new energy vehicle market is not as good as expected. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles increased by 11% year on year, far less than the sales growth rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (88%), so the actual growth rate of actual lithium carbonate consumption is much less than the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles.

Inventory: At present, the inventory of lithium carbonate exceeds 110,000 tons, reaching a new high. The high inventory triggers the wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market. Due to the price uncertainty, the downstream enterprises generally choose to run with low inventory and purchase on demand to reduce risks.

Favorable policies: On July 25, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on several measures to further support large-scale equipment renewal and the exchange of old consumer goods for new ones. The document calls for "overall arrangement of about 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special Treasury bond funds to support large-scale equipment renewal and the replacement of old consumer goods", which is expected to drive 100 GWh lithium battery installed, but the actual impact still needs to be paid attention to.

Business agency lithium carbonate analysts think: the market surplus situation still exists, and there is no good short-term