Global layout and deep cooperation power 16340 battery industry development trend research report

Due to the expansion of production, the power lithium-ion battery equipment manufacturing market has huge potential and will become the next competitive field. In the aftermarket, new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries have begun to enter the retirement period, and recycling and cascade utilization will also become a focus of corporate competition. At the same time, electric vehicles and renewable energy will form the best match, and automotive power lithium-ion batteries will play a vital role. This combination is of great significance to energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation field and renewable energy consumption.

The strong will always be strong, and the market will gather towards superior companies in the future

From the perspective of the entire industry, the global power lithium-ion battery market has been occupied by several major companies in China, Japan and South Korea for a long time. These companies generally have strong technical accumulation, sufficient financial support, rational market positioning and the ability to respond quickly to the market. In the future, the market will further gather towards superior companies, and the situation of the strong will continue to be strong.

Top 10 companies in global power lithium-ion battery sales from 2015 to 2017

Companies at the middle and low end of the market generally lack core technology, have low overall automation levels, and face serious homogeneous vicious competition. Some companies are seriously under-operated. In addition, due to the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles and the increase in prices of upstream raw materials, companies are under pressure from both ends, and the survival of small manufacturers will become difficult. The "small, scattered, and chaotic" power lithium-ion battery companies that have blossomed everywhere before will be eliminated in the market competition. According to statistics, from 2015 to 2017, the number of power lithium-ion battery supporting companies in my country has dropped from 150 to about 100, and 1/3 of the companies have been eliminated.

The layout of power lithium-ion batteries tends to be globalized

From the perspective of company layout, the global layout trend of power lithium-ion battery companies is clear. One is the globalization of company supporting, and the other is the gradual globalization of processing and R&D.

Supporting situation of the top 10 companies in global power lithium-ion battery sales in 2017

Processing layout of the top 10 companies in global power lithium-ion battery sales in 2017

From the perspective of global layout, Japanese and Korean companies have a higher level of globalization in consumer electronics business, rich globalization experience and early layout, and the internationalization process of power lithium-ion batteries is faster than that of Chinese companies. The layout of Chinese power lithium-ion battery companies is mainly concentrated in China.

Batteries and complete vehicles have shifted from pure parts supply to deep cooperation

At present, battery companies and car companies are no longer satisfied with simple supply and demand relationships. More and more companies choose deeper strategic cooperation, such as strategic cooperation, alliance cooperation and joint ventures.

Changes in the relationship between batteries and complete vehicles

The first is a strategic cooperation relationship. Car companies and battery manufacturers will carry out in-depth technical exchanges and joint R&D cooperation, and form technical and market barriers through exclusive agreements. For example, CATL and Guoneng, CATL and Dongfeng, the two sides have established a comprehensive strategic partnership, and jointly built an industrial ecology through in-depth technical exchanges and R&D cooperation.

The second is the alliance cooperation model, which is a deep binding cooperation formed by considering multiple dimensions such as product development, market development, and business model innovation. For example, Wattma initiated the Wattma New Energy Vehicle Industry Innovation Alliance in my country, and built a collaborative mechanism for the entire new energy industry chain. There are more than 1,000 alliance companies.

The third is cooperation based on capital. The two parties jointly invest to establish a joint venture company, such as BAIC and Guoxuan High-tech, SAIC and Wanxiang, JAC and Hua Ting Power, SAIC and CATL, etc. Among them, Guoxuan High-tech participated in the establishment of two companies by BAIC New Energy, CATL and SAIC jointly established two companies, and the power lithium-ion battery company reached a deep binding cooperation with the vehicle manufacturer to seek breakthroughs in technology improvement, cost reduction and locking market share.

These cooperation models also reflect the new trend of transformation and upgrading of the new energy vehicle and power lithium-ion battery industry from the side. The deep cooperation between power lithium-ion battery companies and car companies can, on the one hand, make the two become a community of interests, which is conducive to a more solid cooperative relationship between the two; on the other hand, the company is conducive to quickly binding the production of high-end batteries.

Output will become an important factor in the company's competition

Globally, both existing participants and transformed companies have been expanding their production in recent years. According to IEA statistics, global lithium-ion battery production has reached 200GWh in 2017 and is expected to reach 600GWh in 2022. Driven by the new energy vehicle industry, the production of mainstream companies is still expanding further. Statistics show that the current production of mainstream companies is basically above 5GWh, and the production will reach about 20GWh around 2020.

Output of automotive power lithium-ion batteries of major companies

Production of typical companies in my country (unit: GWh)

Note: 1. The production of Li-ion Battery in 2020 is temporarily unknown

2. Yiwei Lithium Energy's production is in 2019

3. AVIC 16340 battery's production is in 2021

Companies expand their production, first, to share the costs of R&D, manufacturing equipment, and human resources through economies of scale, second, to attract external investment through expanded production, and third, to respond to the outbreak of market demand, thereby gaining market competitive advantages. In the future, the competition threshold of the industry will become higher and higher, and it will be difficult for companies without production advantages to form competitiveness in the market.

Equipment has become an important part of the battery industry

In addition to the competition of battery company products, an important link in the power lithium-ion battery industry is equipment manufacturing, such as the processing and manufacturing of lithium-power lithium-ion batteries, which involves pulping, coating, assembly, formation and other links.

Lithium-power lithium-ion battery processing technology case

The processing and manufacturing of batteries is the way to achieve the design, which is crucial to battery companies. First, the quality of equipment has a great impact on battery consistency and safety. Second, the automation level of processing can improve processing efficiency and reduce processing costs. Third, the automation level of processing can avoid errors caused by manual labor and improve product qualification rate

According to the data disclosed in the prospectus (draft) of CATL, the average equipment investment of 1GWh of domestic battery manufacturers is about 230 million yuan. According to the IEA lithium-ion battery production data, it is roughly calculated that the total market size of power and energy storage lithium-ion battery processing equipment will reach 137 billion yuan in 2022.

Total market size of power lithium-ion batteries and energy storage lithium-ion battery equipment (unit: 100 million yuan)

Power lithium-ion battery recycling and cascade utilization are gradually being valued

The earliest new energy vehicle power lithium-ion batteries put on the market have begun to enter the retirement period, and the first round of large-scale power lithium-ion battery scrapping period is coming. According to EVTank research data, it is estimated that the recycling volume of power lithium-ion batteries in my country will reach 422,000 tons in 2022, and the cascade utilization and recycling and disassembly market size will reach 13.1 billion yuan.

my country's automotive power lithium-ion battery recycling volume from 2018 to 2020

my country's automotive power lithium-ion battery cascade utilization and recycling and disassembly market size from 2018 to 2020

The recycling of retired power lithium-ion batteries will be a very important category, and recycling is of great significance to environmental protection, economic benefits of the battery's entire life cycle, and resource reuse. At present, more and more companies have begun to study and plan the recycling and cascade utilization of power lithium-ion batteries.

Typical company recycling and cascade utilization layout

Power lithium-ion batteries will be combined with renewable energy

In the future, electric vehicles will be closely integrated with renewable energy. The green and emission-reducing electric vehicles rely on the power supply of renewable energy, while the effective utilization of renewable energy on a large scale relies on the support of energy storage carriers. Electric vehicles and renewable energy form the best match, and automotive power lithium-ion batteries will play a vital role. The synergy between electric vehicles and renewable energy is of great significance.

First, renewable energy supplies clean electricity for electric vehicles. In terms of greenhouse gas emission reduction, the combination of electric vehicles and renewable energy will make their emissions throughout their life cycle approach zero. At present, my country has a serious phenomenon of wind and solar abandonment. Data shows that in 2016, the national wind abandonment reached 49.7 billion kWh, and the abandoned light in the five northwestern provinces (Gansu, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Qinghai and Shaanxi) reached 7.042 billion kWh. If all the abandoned wind and abandoned light in 2016 are reasonably used, it can also guarantee the annual electricity demand of 15.5 million passenger cars.

Wind power and photovoltaic power generation can support the number of electric passenger vehicles (unit: vehicle)

Second, electric vehicles and retired batteries can reduce the investment in regulating energy storage facilities and reduce the huge regulating capacity obtained by additional investment.

Electric vehicles and retired batteries regulate the intermittency of renewable energy

Third, power lithium-ion batteries will participate in the peak and frequency regulation and auxiliary services of the power grid. The study stated that electric vehicles are parked more than 90% of the time, which means that a large number of idle electric vehicles will be connected to the power grid to ensure the next driving needs of electric vehicle users, and respond to the different dispatching needs of the power grid through orderly charging and discharging.

Electric vehicles regulate the peak and valley of the power grid

Fourth, electric vehicles regulate the power system regulation, which will bring additional benefits. The combination of electric vehicles and the power system will create more value for users.

Value structure of electric vehicles in the scenario of high proportion of renewable energy 35 (unit: yuan/kWh˙year)

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