Research on the power 1.5V rechargeable battery industry

　　In recent years, my country's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly and has become one of the world's leading industries in my country. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2017, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 794,000 and 777,000 respectively, with a cumulative ownership of 1.8 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of the global market ownership, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years.

　　1. Analysis of industrial policies in the new energy industry

　　As an emerging industry, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry is inseparable from the support of national policies. In order to accelerate the industrialization process of new energy vehicles, the state has successively promulgated a series of relevant policy documents, formulated and implemented subsidy policies, double points policies, etc., which have a significant impact on the development of the new energy vehicle industry.

　　Subsidy policy

　　In order to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the central government has arranged special funds to subsidize the production and sales of new energy vehicles. After experiencing new energy vehicle subsidy fraud and other incidents, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions have made substantial adjustments to the subsidy standards for the new energy vehicle industry, and strengthened the requirements for energy consumption, driving range, battery performance, safety and other aspects of new energy vehicles. The current specific subsidy standards are as follows.

　　Subsidy standards for new energy buses:

　　Technical requirements for new energy buses are: ①Energy consumption per unit load is not higher than 0.24Wh/km˙kg; ②The driving range of pure electric buses is not less than 200 kilometers; ③The total mass of the battery system accounts for no more than 20% of the vehicle's curb weight; ④The energy density of the battery system of non-fast-charging pure electric buses must be higher than 85Wh/kg, the fast-charging rate of fast-charging pure electric buses must be higher than 3C, and the fuel-saving rate of plug-in hybrid buses must be higher than 40%. Subsidy amount = vehicle battery capacity × unit power subsidy standard × adjustment coefficient (adjustment coefficient: system energy density/charging rate/fuel-saving level).

　　Subsidy standards for new energy passenger vehicles:

　　Technical requirements for new energy passenger vehicles are: ① The maximum speed of pure electric passenger vehicles in 30 minutes shall not be less than 100km/h; ② The mass energy density of the power battery system of pure electric passenger vehicles shall not be less than 90Wh/kg, and subsidies shall be given at 1.1 times for those above 120Wh/kg; ③ For pure electric passenger vehicle products, according to the different curb weights (m), the power consumption per 100 kilometers under working conditions (Y) shall meet the following requirements: When m≤1000kg, Y≤0.01 4×m+0.5;10001600kg, Y≤0.005×m+13.7;④ The fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger cars with a pure electric driving range of less than 80km in B state (excluding the fuel consumption of electric energy conversion) is less than 70% of the corresponding limit in the current national standard for conventional fuel consumption. The power consumption per 100km in A state of plug-in hybrid passenger cars with a pure electric driving range of 80km or more in A state meets the same requirements as pure electric passenger cars.

　　Subsidy standards for new energy trucks and special vehicles:

　　The technical requirements for new energy trucks and special vehicles are: ① The mass energy density of the loaded power battery system is not less than 90Wh/kg; ② The unit load mass energy consumption (Ekg) of pure electric trucks and transportation special vehicles is not higher than 0.5Wh/km˙kg, and the power consumption per 100km of other types of pure electric special vehicles (based on the test mass) does not exceed 13kWh.

　　From 2017 to 2020, the subsidy standards for other models except fuel cell vehicles will be appropriately reduced. The subsidy standards for 2017-2018 will be reduced by 20% from 2016, and the subsidy standards for 2019-2020 will be reduced by 40% from 2016.

　　In addition, not all new energy vehicle manufacturers that meet the technical requirements can obtain subsidies. In order to obtain subsidies, new energy vehicles must first be equipped with power battery products from companies listed in the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" enterprise directory; secondly, new energy vehicles must be included in the "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalog". New energy vehicle products can only apply for subsidies after being included in the "Catalog" for sales and promotion.

　　The implementation of the new subsidy policy will undoubtedly bring a huge impact to the new energy vehicle industry. The new requirements such as battery energy density and energy consumption coefficient introduced in the new policy make the previous business model that relied on low-priced and low-end models such as micro cars and small cars to make profits unsustainable. Companies that master core technologies will have an advantage in the competition, and the new energy vehicle industry has entered a period of survival of the fittest.

　　Double credit policy

　　On September 27, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly announced the "Parallel Management Measures for Passenger Car Enterprise Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Credits", also known as the "double credit policy", which will manage the future corporate fuel consumption credits (CAFC) and new energy vehicle credits (NEV), and will be implemented on April 1, 2018 (only credits will be counted in 2018). The implementation of this policy not only requires automakers to continuously reduce the average fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles, but also to produce and sell new energy vehicles.

　　The calculation formula for fuel consumption credits is (the enterprise's average fuel consumption compliance value-the actual value of the enterprise's average fuel consumption) x annual production. Enterprises with negative fuel consumption credits can purchase fuel consumption credits from their affiliated automakers with positive credits or produce more new energy vehicles, purchase new energy credits from other automakers, and use enough new energy credits to make up for it.

　　At the same time, according to the requirements of the double-point policy, the proportion of new energy vehicle points of auto companies in 2018, 2019 and 2020 must reach 8%, 10% and 12%, respectively. New energy vehicle points can be traded freely, but cannot be carried forward.

　　2. The booming new energy vehicle market

　　In 2017, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 777,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.25%. Among them, the sales of new energy passenger cars reached 578,000 units, an increase of 72.02% over 2016; the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 198,000 units, an increase of 15.79% over 2016. According to the "Medium- and Long-Term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology in April 2017, by 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country will reach 2 million units, and by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy in my country will reach more than 20%. In order to achieve the goal of producing and selling 2 million units in 2020, the compound growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country from 2017 to 2020 will reach 37%.

　　New energy passenger car market

　　Since 2014, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in my country has continued to increase. The sales volume in 2017 increased by more than three times compared with that in 2015. Although the year-on-year growth rate in 2017 declined, it still remained at a high level of 72%. Taking into account the growth rate of fuel passenger cars and the requirements of the double-credit policy, it is estimated that the sales volume of new energy passenger cars in my country will reach 950,000, 1.34 million and 1.84 million respectively from 2018 to 2020, with an annual compound growth rate of 47%. Affected by the subsidy policy of heavy electric and light hybrid, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles has gradually become the mainstream of new energy passenger car sales. The proportion of pure electric vehicle sales in the total sales volume of new energy passenger cars has increased from 64% in 2015 to 81% in 2017. With the advancement of power battery technology, the increase in energy density and the improvement of market recognition of new energy vehicles, the proportion of pure electric vehicles is expected to increase further.

　　From the sales area point of view, the regional market concentration of new energy passenger vehicles was high in 2017, with sales in the top ten sales areas accounting for 55.1% of the total sales. Five of the top ten sales areas are restricted cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Guangzhou. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the five restricted cities accounted for 42% of the total sales. In general, the sales of new energy vehicles are highly dependent on restricted cities. Specifically, in terms of quarterly sales and individual automakers, the sales in non-restricted cities accounted for 26.6% in the first quarter of 2017, 38.6% in the second and 44.9% in the third quarters respectively. New energy brands represented by Jiangling, JAC, Zhidou and Chery have already moved out of restricted cities, and their market share in non-restricted cities has exceeded 50%. The market acceptance of new energy vehicles in non-restricted cities has gradually increased. In the future, as the market demand of non-restricted cities starts, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will continue to grow steadily.

　　Judging from the sales of domestic new energy vehicle companies, BYD and BAIC New Energy have always maintained an absolute leading advantage in both 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. In 2017, the sales of passenger cars of both companies exceeded 100,000 units. In the first quarter of 2018, BYD and BAIC New Energy ranked second with sales of 28,499 and 21,251 units respectively. It is worth noting that in 2018, domestic new forces car companies also began to achieve sales breakthroughs. Xiaopeng Motors achieved sales of 39 units in January, becoming the first Internet car manufacturer to enter the new energy vehicle sales list. By March, Yuntu Automobile's Yuntu π1 Intercity Edition, Yuntu π1 City Edition, and Yuntu π3 sold 75, 25, and 15 units respectively, and Xiaopeng Motors IDENTYX sold 30 units.

　　New Energy Commercial Vehicle Market

　　New energy commercial vehicles are divided into passenger car and special vehicle markets. New energy buses are mainly used as buses in the public sector. New energy special vehicles are divided into sanitation special vehicles, engineering special vehicles, special special vehicles, business special vehicles, transportation special vehicles, special special vehicles and other types. In 2017, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in my country was 198,000, a year-on-year increase of 15.79%. Pure electric vehicles account for a large proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, accounting for 80% in 2015 and 93% in 2017.

　　New energy buses

　　In 2017, the sales volume of domestic new energy buses was 867.67 million, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%. The reason is that at the end of 2016, due to the uncertainty of future subsidy policies, the car companies overdrew part of the demand in 2017. With the implementation of the new subsidy policy and the weakening of the overdraft effect, the sales volume of new energy buses in the first two months of 2018 was 4,021, a year-on-year increase of 75%. New energy buses are mainly divided into seat buses, school buses, public buses and sleeper buses. In 2017, the sales of various types of buses were 11,410, 1, 75,991 and 24,587 respectively, with public buses accounting for the largest proportion of 68%.

　　The development of new energy public buses is inseparable from the support of national policies. Since 2015, the subsidy for the price increase of public transportation refined oil has been linked to the number of new energy promotions, and at the same time, operating subsidies have been given to new energy buses. Major cities have introduced new energy bus promotion plans: Beijing strives to put 10,000 pure electric buses into service by 2020, Shaanxi Province plans to have more than 7,000 new energy buses in the province by 2020, Hainan Province plans to have new energy buses account for 90% by 2020, etc.; Specifically, in terms of the number of buses put into service in 2018, Shaoyang City plans to invest in 400 new energy buses, Chengde City plans to purchase 100 pure electric buses of various models, Huangshi City plans to purchase 145 pure electric buses, and Xiamen strives to put 800 pure electric buses into service, etc.; Multiple promotion measures jointly promote a significant increase in the electrification rate of buses. In addition to the increase brought by the promotion of new energy buses in various cities, the replacement of new energy buses in the next few years will also be one of the main growth points of new energy buses.

　　From the perspective of the overall new energy bus market, in the first 11 months of 2017, the electrification rate of buses was about 34%, among which the electrification rate of seat buses with a relatively high sales volume was relatively low. As the cost reduction and technological progress bring about the improvement of bus economy, it is expected that the electrification rate of seat buses will also be further improved. There is still a large space for long-term growth of new energy buses.

　　New energy special vehicles

　　According to the three batches of "Recommended Model Catalogs for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2018, new energy special vehicles account for 25-35% of the promotion catalog. According to the energy type classification, new energy special vehicles are mainly pure electric special vehicles and fuel cell special vehicles, and pure electric vehicles account for more than 90%. Among pure electric special vehicles, transport vehicles rank first.

　　The development of new energy transport vehicles is closely related to the prosperity of the express delivery industry. As major cities have implemented restrictions on fuel trucks, license plate restrictions, and restrictions on entry into cities, new energy logistics transport vehicles have gradually become the first choice for urban distribution tools. According to statistics, the domestic production of new energy logistics vehicles in 2017 was 125,000, a year-on-year increase of 118.8%. It is expected that by 2020, the national production of electric logistics vehicles is expected to reach 206,000, and the market penetration rate will reach 21.9%.

　　The good development prospects of new energy logistics transport vehicles have attracted many companies to join the market. In May 2017, Cainiao Network released the ACE Future Green Smart Logistics Vehicle Plan, which will form a demand for 1 million new energy logistics vehicles; in October 2017, JD Logistics announced that it will work with a number of large electric vehicle manufacturers across the country to jointly test, promote, develop and introduce thousands of new energy vehicles, and at the same time form a new energy industry alliance, planning to replace hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the system with new energy vehicles in the next five years. In addition, the "Action Plan for Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Road Freight Industry (2017-2020)" issued by the Ministry of Transport and others clearly pointed out that the country will comprehensively promote the electrification of urban freight vehicles, and the "Opinions on Promoting the Coordinated Development of E-commerce and Express Logistics" issued by the State Council encourages the logistics field to accelerate the promotion and use of new energy vehicles. In addition to the support of national policies, local governments have also proposed plans for the electrification of logistics vehicles. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 28 provinces and cities have clarified the operation plans of electric logistics vehicles in 2017, and it is expected that the electrification of logistics vehicles will be further accelerated.

　　3. Forecast of sales volume of new energy vehicles and demand for power lithium batteries

　　The core technologies of new energy vehicles are mainly power batteries, motors and electronic control technologies. Among them, power batteries are the most important core components of electric vehicles. Whether power battery technology can be broken through is the key to the development of electric vehicles. Lithium batteries are the most mature, stable and widely used types of batteries in the current power batteries. After comprehensively analyzing data from various sources, the Yisanban Research Institute made the following forecasts for domestic new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries: with the goal of achieving the "double-credit policy", the domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles will be 950,000, 1.34 million and 1.84 million respectively from 2018 to 2020; and it is estimated that the average battery capacity of pure electric passenger vehicles will increase by 10% annually; the proportion of pure electric passenger vehicles in new energy passenger vehicles will increase by 2% annually and remain at 85%; the average battery capacity of pure electric buses and special-purpose vehicles will increase by 5% annually; the average battery capacity of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles and buses will remain unchanged. It is estimated that the demand for power batteries from 2018 to 2020 will be 56.53GWH, 81.15GWH and 114.12GWH respectively, and the compound annual growth rate will reach 42%.

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