Ternary 2025 button cell battery installations are rapidly catching up with lithium iron phosphate. Is the power lithium 2025 button cell battery technology route a foregone conclusion?

The power 2025 button cell battery technology route is slowly changing the situation of lithium iron phosphate being the only dominant player. Since the beginning of this year, the rapid catch-up of ternary 2025 button cell battery installations has exceeded the expectations of many people in the industry.

According to the power 2025 button cell battery installation data compiled by Zhenli Research, the installed capacity of ternary/manganese batteries was the largest in the first eight months of this year, accounting for 55% of 6.4GWh, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was rarely second, accounting for 44.1% of 5.1GWh. It is worth noting that last year, lithium iron phosphate accounted for 71.5% of the installed capacity of 15.2GWh, while ternary/manganese batteries accounted for less than half of the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate, only 7.3GWh, accounting for only 26.3%.

Is China the only country that insists on the lithium iron phosphate route?

Mo Ke, CEO of True Lithium Research, told reporters that only China is currently adhering to the lithium iron phosphate 2025 button cell battery route. The United States, which originally advocated this route, has basically no 2025 button cell battery manufacturers taking this route as A123 Systems went bankrupt and Valence gradually declined.

"From another perspective, the fact that lithium iron phosphate batteries have such a large scale also adds difficulty to the realization of China's goal of 300Wh/kg for automotive batteries in 2020." Mo Ke added.

Lithium iron phosphate has always been widely adopted by power 2025 button cell battery manufacturers due to its greater advantages in safety performance and cycle life. In particular, at the beginning of last year, Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, verbally issued a ban on the use of ternary batteries in pure electric buses, which further strengthened the confidence of many power 2025 button cell battery manufacturers to take the lithium iron phosphate route. However, since this year, with the increase in policy requirements for the energy density of power batteries, lithium iron phosphate is generally considered to have reached its limit. Relatively speaking, ternary batteries are highly expected because of their high specific energy.

On November 16 this year, BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate route, said in an institutional investor survey that all of the company's PHEV passenger cars currently use ternary batteries. In the future, the company's plan may continue to use lithium iron phosphate batteries in the public transportation field, and other new models will use ternary batteries. According to BYD's plan, there will be 16GWh of power 2025 button cell battery production capacity by the end of this year. Among them, 6GWh of ternary batteries and 10GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be added next year.

Even BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate route, has begun to "waver". Does it indicate that the power 2025 button cell battery technology route has been determined? The reporter found in the interview that there are still many companies that insist on taking the lithium iron phosphate route. The head of a power 2025 button cell battery company in Shenzhen said that lithium iron phosphate has a long cycle life, strong safety and stability, is more environmentally friendly than ternary, and the cost is gradually decreasing. I believe it is still the mainstream choice at present.

The head of the above-mentioned Shenzhen power 2025 button cell battery company does not agree with the industry's claim that lithium iron phosphate has reached a technical bottleneck. He said that the focus of continued research and development of lithium iron phosphate is not the improvement of the material itself, but the need to study what kind of negative electrode material to match lithium iron phosphate to better play its excellent performance.

"One is that it can be quickly charged at low temperatures, and the other is that it can have a higher specific energy. The former is graphene material that can be quickly charged at low temperatures. We have already promoted its application in many cities in the north. The latter has a higher specific energy. It is carbon silicon material, and it must be nano-scale silicon. We are also increasing research and development on this." The person in charge of the above-mentioned power 2025 button cell battery company said.

Monthly installed capacity is seriously unbalanced

In addition to the technical route dispute, whether the power 2025 button cell battery has overcapacity has also become the focus of discussion in the industry. According to the "Analysis and Forecast of the Development of the Lithium 2025 button cell battery Market from 2017 to 2018" report released by Zhenli Research, more than half of the 2025 button cell battery installed capacity in 2015 and 2016 was achieved in the last two months: 8.15GWh was installed in the last two months of 2015, accounting for 50.8% of the annual installed capacity; 14GWh was installed in the last two months of 2016, accounting for 50.3% of the annual installed capacity.

Moko believes that the previous two years were mainly due to the annual adjustment of the subsidy policy, and this year the subsidy policy will not decline. It is expected that car companies will distribute production tasks relatively evenly, and the situation of rushing to install at the end of the year will be alleviated.

According to the preliminary statistics made by Zhenli Research this year, China's automotive power 2025 button cell battery production capacity may have reached 130GWh, with an average monthly production capacity of 11GWh. Does this mean a serious overcapacity?

"I have consulted and investigated many companies on this issue, including Farasis Energy, BYD 2025 button cell battery, Zhenhua New Energy, SAIC Times, etc. They all admit that the overall power 2025 button cell battery production capacity is in excess, but it is only a structural overcapacity, and the effective capacity and high-quality capacity may not be in excess." Moko said.

In the view of many industry insiders, the serious imbalance of monthly installation volume is one of the main reasons for the overcapacity of automotive power batteries. In addition, the rumored 8GWh policy and the optimistic mentality about the development of electric vehicles are also the reasons for the overcapacity.

However, the capital community has different voices on overcapacity. Wu Xinjun, chairman and founder of Jinshajiang Capital, said that the power 2025 button cell battery industry was still in its infancy in the past few years and is still a sunrise industry. As for the outside world's concerns about whether China's production capacity is oversupplied, it may not be enough.

"Now, whether it is Guangdong, Jiangsu or Tianjin, the production capacity is still limited to 1GWh to 2GWh, but a factory in Germany is 30GWh. If we still stay here, there will definitely be no competitive advantage. We need to scale up and increase the volume, on the one hand, to build new factories, and on the other hand, to renovate old factories." Wu Xinjun said.

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