Regarding power lithium battery technology development and production expansion

　　Entering 2017, life is not easy for power battery manufacturers - upstream raw material prices have increased, and downstream new energy vehicle subsidies have declined, urging battery cost reduction. However, even so, for the power battery industry, a new round of technology and production capacity expansion But it is pressing ahead.

　　In the process of advancing the research and development of high-energy-density batteries, various companies are vying to be the first. Battery companies have increased investment in research and development, improving the energy density of batteries and battery systems by improving raw material systems such as positive and negative materials, separators, and electrolytes, and optimizing PACK structures. The leaps in battery energy density of CATL, Guoxuan High-Tech, Tianjin Lishen, BYD, AVIC Lithium Battery, BAK Battery, Thornton New Energy, etc. have frequently attracted industry attention.

　　The increase in energy density is, on the one hand, the inevitable result of the development of new energy vehicles pursuing longer cruising range, and on the other hand, it is closely related to the amount of government subsidies. Entering 2017, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has been adjusted, including battery energy density as an important reference indicator for subsidies. On March 1 this year, four central ministries and commissions issued a notice on the "Action Plan to Promote the Development of the Automotive Power Battery Industry", which clearly pointed out that increasing the battery specific energy will be one of the key development goals in the future. In terms of product performance, it is proposed that the power battery system ratio will be 2020. The energy reaches 260Wh/kg, the cost drops to less than 1 yuan/Wh, and the specific energy of a power battery cell reaches the target of 500Wh/kg in 2025.

　　In addition, in order to improve China's power battery research and development level, form R&D synergy among enterprises, and jointly promote technological progress in the industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also took the lead in establishing the National Power Battery Innovation Center last year. The goal is that my country's power batteries will catch up with the level of Japan and South Korea in 2020. According to Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, "Building a manufacturing innovation center is to make up for the broken links in the innovation chain, especially to solve the so-called 'valley of death' between laboratory products and industrialization, and to integrate dispersed innovation resources." and the power of innovation.”

　　Under a series of incentive measures, power battery energy density has repeatedly broken records. Recently, Minister of Science and Technology Wan Gang stated at the 8th Clean Energy Ministerial Conference and the 2nd Innovation Mission Ministerial Conference that since the large-scale development of electric vehicles was launched in 2010, the energy density of electric vehicle batteries has increased every four years or so. Doubling the cost reduces the cost by approximately 50%.

　　China is making great strides at the forefront of increasing energy density, and various battery technology routes are innovating, such as graphene, lithium-air batteries, supercapacitors, etc., which appear in the newspapers from time to time.

　　Continuously climbing to new heights of energy density not only breaks the key constraint of new energy vehicle mileage, but also promotes the advancement of the entire battery industry's technical level. However, in this round of competition, the pure pursuit of high energy density has also caused concerns in the industry - if higher energy density means more subsidies, will battery safety, lifespan and other other factors be ignored because of the pursuit of energy density? Important indicators.

　　Regarding battery safety and lifespan, it is no longer a new topic. In recent years, combustion incidents in new energy vehicles are not uncommon. The service life of power batteries in new energy vehicles is only 3-5 years. At the same time, in extreme environments, the attenuation of power battery energy density is a non-linear change. These doubts have to some extent discouraged consumers from purchasing new energy vehicles.

　　A third party has conducted a survey and found that more than 90% of ordinary consumers travel within 80 kilometers on average every day. So do new energy vehicles as means of transportation must pursue high energy density? In addition, the longer the driving range, the higher the price. Comprehensive cost-effectiveness and rational selection of appropriate driving range will become mainstream concepts.

　　Therefore, it is biased to only use battery energy density as the only indicator. Other factors such as safety, lifespan, and economy are equally important. This is also an aspect that battery companies must focus on in future research and development.

　　Let’s take a look at the capacity expansion wave of power batteries. Entering 2017, the momentum is strong. Those investing in capacity expansion include: BYD 6GWh, CATL 10GWh, Microvast 11GWh, Mengshi Technology 6GWh, Guoxuan Hi-Tech 4GWh, Xinwangda 6GWh, Tianjin New power source 10GWh, etc. According to incomplete statistics, since 2017 alone, the number of lithium battery companies has expanded production to nearly 20, with the total expansion exceeding 64.2GWh.

　　This wave of production capacity expansion is driven by companies reducing production costs through economies of scale on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also affected by the country’s guidance on battery production capacity thresholds. Although the 8GWh production capacity threshold stipulated in the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017) (Draft for Comments)" issued at the end of 2016 has not yet been implemented, its guiding role for battery companies is self-evident.

　　From the perspective of the industry, signs of excess battery production capacity have begun to appear, but this excess refers to low-end production capacity, while high-end production capacity is actually insufficient. Therefore, from a long-term development perspective, power battery companies still have huge room for expansion.

　　The development of the battery industry should take into account both speed and quality. The expansion of speed and scale should be based on the actual needs of industry development, rational judgment of the market, and innovative development of material technology, rather than blindly following the trend of enterprises. At the same time, it should also be noted that as the energy storage market gradually picks up steam, batteries will also have the opportunity to flex their muscles in the field of energy storage. There is no technical difficulty in converting power batteries to batteries for energy storage.

　　At present, for the majority of battery companies, the most important thing is to take the market, demand, and technology as the entry point to ensure that batteries are of high quality, appropriate scale, and innovation-driven to create irreplaceable market competitiveness.

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