Will traditional battery 18650 phosphate battery technology give way to new technologies? What will the competitive landscape be like in the future?

　　Prediction of the development pattern of high-energy power batteries

　　As mentioned earlier, the country's policy orientation has been very clear, strongly supporting the development of new lithium-ion power batteries with high energy density, and corresponding policy details have been reflected. It is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the dual-point policy issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in June 2017. When the battery quality is reduced through high energy density and the low electric energy consumption per 100 kilometers Y is obtained, 1.2 times the points can be obtained; second, at the end of last year The subsidy policy emphasizes that when the energy density is high (passenger car battery energy density >120Wh/Kg), 1.1~1.2 times of subsidies can be obtained; thirdly, judging from the new energy vehicle promotion catalog that must be entered to obtain subsidies, passenger car third The proportion of Yuan lithium-ion battery models continues to increase. This year’s sixth batch of models accounted for more than 70%, which has promoted the development of high-energy-density batteries.

　　However, although good results have been achieved in the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, pure electric passenger vehicle products for private consumers are still subject to the impact of range anxiety and have not yet achieved large-scale application. Breakthroughs in the private demand-side market and meeting requirements have further improved the energy density of power batteries. As far as the current situation is concerned, only ternary lithium power batteries and solid-state lithium power batteries may achieve the 2020 target. This will trigger a new pattern of domestic power battery technology.

　　The first category is technology-leading, represented by CATL. CATL itself already possesses ternary lithium battery technology. Its products will use silicon carbon materials as negative electrodes and are expected to achieve the 350Wh/kg target during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. At the same time, CATL has advanced technologies in solid-state lithium batteries (lithium-sulfur batteries and polymer cells). Breakthroughs have been made. For example, the polymer battery core with a capacity of 325mAh designed and manufactured by CATL has good high-temperature cycle performance. Technology leadership and advance layout can ensure that enterprises occupy the commanding heights when applying and promoting new technologies.

　　The second category, the technology follower type, is represented by Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lishen, etc. Companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Lishen have strong market foundations and are accelerating the research and development of ternary lithium battery technology with high battery energy density. For example, the official website of the Ministry of Science and Technology, regarding the breakthrough of Guoxuan Hi-tech's ternary lithium battery technology, states that it uses high-nickel positive electrode + silicon-based negative electrode as battery materials, and the laboratory battery energy density level reaches 281Wh/kg. However, such companies have little or no solid-state lithium battery technology reserves. Such companies may accelerate joint ventures with companies with all-solid-state lithium battery technology such as Samsung Japan Research Institute, Sakti3 (USA), and Qingtao Energy.

　　The third category, technological transformation category, bids farewell to BYD, Wanxiang, etc. Companies such as BYD and Wanxiang have limited room for increasing the energy density of their core products, battery 18650 phosphate batteries. They are gradually reducing the impact of battery 18650 phosphate batteries and accelerating the transformation of ternary lithium battery technology routes. Among them, the energy density of Wanxiang's A123Systems battery 18650 phosphate products has stopped at around 140Wh/kg; BYD plans to reach around 240Wh/kg in ternary lithium battery energy density in 2018 and around 300Wh/kg in 2020.

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