Will the ternary 32700 battery, which is currently the most technologically mature battery in production, continue to improve its formula?

Let’s popularize some knowledge about power batteries: First of all, in terms of naming, NCA and NCM are the names of the elements that make up the positive electrode of the battery. NCA is nickel cobalt aluminum, and NCM is nickel cobalt manganese. Because among the four major battery materials (positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte and separator), the positive electrode material accounts for more than 40% of the cost, so power batteries are often named after the positive electrode material.

Next is the meaning of the numbers. The numbers represent the proportions of the three elements in the cathode material. For example, NCM111 represents the proportion of the three elements nickel, cobalt and manganese in a ratio of 1:1:1.

Popular science completed.

At present, the main choices for power batteries are ternary lithium batteries (NCA/NCM) and lithium iron phosphate batteries. Taking passenger cars as an example, the main choice of power battery is ternary 32700 battery.

Most car companies use NCM batteries, but only a few car companies, such as Tesla, use NCA batteries. Initially, BYD chose lithium iron phosphate batteries. Due to the technical bottleneck of battery energy density and the influence of policies, BYD also invested in NCM batteries.

According to Benchmark’s predictions, NCM batteries will account for 70% of the market share of power batteries by 2026. Only a few companies will choose NCA. Of course, Tesla is still the main player.

From the perspective of material ratio, the common ratio of NCA is 8:1.5:0.5, while the common ratio of NCM is 1:1:1 or 5:2:3. At present, domestic NCM batteries are mainly NCM523. However, with the increase in cruising range and cobalt price, ternary lithium batteries are generally developing towards high nickel and low cobalt. Each company uses NCM811 (lowering the proportion of cobalt). to 10%) as the technical route.

Unfortunately, while various companies are still working hard to make NMC811, Musk said that Tesla’s batteries have reduced the proportion of cobalt to less than 10%. I don’t know what these companies thought after seeing this.

As mentioned above, Tesla’s demand for cobalt decreased by 59%. In 2012, Tesla consumed 11kg of cobalt per vehicle, and by 2018, it consumed 4.5kg of cobalt per vehicle.

However, as Tesla Model 3 production capacity increases, demand for cobalt will still surge. Not only that, as the electric vehicle market continues to expand, the demand for battery raw materials will further expand. According to Benchmark’s forecast, driven by the wave of electric vehicles, the use of cobalt in the power battery industry will triple by 2026.

Obviously, it is important to maintain the supply of battery raw materials. Boss Ma is very prescient and has been involved in the 32700 battery raw material supply market very early: In April 2017, Tesla executives discussed the issue of lithium batteries with officials from the Salta Province in Argentina; at the end of 2017, Musk personally went to Chile Examining the situation of 32700 battery raw materials, in January 2018, Tesla launched negotiations with Chilean lithium mining giant SQM to ensure the supply of lithium raw materials.

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