New energy technology route stirs up controversy again. Will lithium 18650 battery phosphate return to its peak?

　　Abstract: In recent years, passenger car batteries have gradually switched from lithium 18650 battery phosphate to ternary lithium batteries under the influence of subsidies linked to energy density. However, with the cancellation of local government subsidies, the national subsidy standard has been reduced by more than 50%, and lithium 18650 battery phosphate has The cost advantage of batteries is gradually becoming apparent.

　　Since China's automobile industry encountered this "cold winter", domestic automobile sales have declined for 15 consecutive months. Due to drastic changes in the economic environment and continued decline in consumer demand, both independent brands and joint ventures are looking forward to market recovery. But at present, not only the sales of traditional fuel vehicles have continued to decline, but the new energy vehicle market, which has doubled in growth over the years, has also declined for the first time, with no signs of recovery in a short period of time.

　　According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to July 2019 were 701,000 and 699,000 respectively, an increase of 39.1% and 40.9% compared with the same period last year. However, it is worth noting that the production and sales of new energy vehicles in July were 84,000 and 80,000 respectively, a decrease of 37.2% and 47.5% from June. By analyzing the sales reports of some leading new energy car companies, the overall sales of new energy vehicles may still show a downward trend in August.

　　How should China's new energy automobile industry develop? It has become a difficult problem facing enterprises and governments.

　　The battle over technical routes is stirring again

　　As early as 2008, China issued its first policy to support the development of pure electric vehicles. However, due to objective factors such as technical conditions, pure electric vehicle operations at that time were mainly public transportation such as buses and special vehicles. By 2013, with the new With the introduction of the energy vehicle subsidy policy, the development of new energy vehicles in China has been on the right track. China has also confirmed the development path of new energy vehicles with pure electric vehicles as the mainstay and hybrid power as the supplement.

　　After six years of development, I thought that everyone from the national top-level design to the end-market consumption level would readily accept and clarify this technical route. However, at this year’s TEDA Forum, Yang Yusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, expressed his views and caused an uproar.

　　The "pure electric drive" technology route that once had the upper hand now seems to be in an unstable position.

　　This worker who has dedicated his life to education and scientific research said that the long-range pure electric vehicles that China is vigorously developing at present do not save energy and reduce emissions. By focusing on long-mileage pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, micro and small Analyzing the five new energy models of pure electric vehicles and extended-range electric vehicles, he believes that extended-range hybrids are the future, and even the currently popular hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot achieve the effects of energy conservation and emission reduction.

　　Yang Yusheng explained that the reason why long-range pure electric vehicles do not reduce emissions is because their electric energy mainly comes from coal burning. Although they do not consume fuel, blind pursuit of high mileage and high performance can only lead to vehicle energy consumption of only If it increases without decreasing, real energy saving and emission reduction cannot be achieved when charging "thermal power". Emission standards based on carbon dioxide and other harmful substances emitted during power generation are the final standards. Regarding the recent popularity of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the academician also bluntly said that it is difficult to save energy and reduce emissions. He believes that fuel cells use hydrogen as energy, but hydrogen has no mineral deposits. Although water contains hydrogen, hydrogen is completely different from water. The problems to be solved are not simple. The first is to produce hydrogen with high energy efficiency and low emissions. At present, many hydrogen production methods are electrolysis of water. If electrolysis of water is directly used to produce hydrogen, and then added to the fuel cell to generate electricity, the calculated efficiency of electrolysis is about 85%, and the fuel cell is about 50%. These two steps require a 10-degree electrical transformation. When the temperature is 4 degrees, it is sent to the highway. In addition, the fuel cell itself consumes electricity, and its operation consumes electricity. So the final efficiency is not very high.

　　The second is the safe transportation, distribution, and storage of hydrogen, which all have technical problems; the third is the short life of the fuel cell, which can last more than 20,000 hours in experiments, but is not feasible on the road. Because of the high price and high production cost, the energy consumption of fuel cells is much higher than that of internal combustion engines.

　　Why do you say that extended-range electric vehicles are very energy-saving and emission-reducing? Yang Yusheng concluded that they have fewer batteries, have little impact from subsidy cancellation, are easy to market, are more than 50% more fuel-efficient than fuel vehicles, are more economical, can be recharged, and do not need to build charging piles. Big advantage.

　　Li Wanli, an expert on the Expert Academic Committee of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation and former deputy inspector of the Industrial Policy Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, agreed with this view. "Under the guidance of the dual-point policy, extended-range hybrid vehicles will become the protagonist of China's automobile industry." He said in his speech that in the post-subsidy era, companies must consider reducing costs, reducing battery usage, and reducing costs based on market conditions. Driving mileage indicator.

　　Li Wanli believes that pure electric vehicles will be polarized in the post-subsidy era. Pure electric vehicles may return to the position of short-distance vehicles, and high-end products may be mainly extended-range hybrid vehicles.

　　However, Yi Baolian, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, strongly supports hydrogen fuel cells. He believes that the performance of fuel cell vehicles has now reached the level of fuel vehicles in terms of driving range, hydrogenation time, driver experience, comfort and adaptability. , so if there are no two highs, fuel cells can completely replace fuel vehicles.

　　However, Song Qiuling, a first-level inspector of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, has repeatedly emphasized that the technical route oriented to pure electric drive must be adhered to, which is the key to achieving rapid development of China's new energy vehicles in 10 years.

　　Regarding the fuel cell technology roadmap, Song Qiuling believes that my country's fuel cell vehicle core technology and component technology have not yet made breakthroughs, infrastructure construction is insufficient, standards and regulations are missing, and a hydrogen energy management system has not yet been established. conditions for promotion and application.

　　Comments from all parties indicate that even at the top levels of the government and scientific research academia, there is still considerable controversy over the future development direction of new energy vehicles.

　　Regarding the dispute over technical routes, Cai Tuanjie, deputy director of the Transportation Services Department of the Ministry of Transport, lamented: "The industry cannot keep up and is always changing. Today we promote hybrid power and tomorrow we promote hydrogen energy. So we still need to make a rational choice in the market." and structured proportions.”

　　lithium 18650 battery phosphate returns to its peak?

　　The technical path of "pure electric drive" is being threatened by more technical solutions, and within electrification, the debate over which battery to use is gradually becoming louder.

　　As subsidies for new energy vehicles decline, lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries, which were once "abandoned" by passenger cars, are now gradually increasing.

　　In recent years, passenger car batteries have gradually switched from lithium 18650 battery phosphate to ternary lithium batteries due to subsidies linked to energy density. However, with the cancellation of local government subsidies, national subsidy standards have been reduced by more than 50%, and the cost of lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries has The advantages are gradually highlighted.

　　It is reported that many vehicle manufacturers have confirmed that they will start switching to lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries in some passenger vehicles, including JAC, BAIC New Energy, Jiangxi Changhe Automobile, Hezhong New Energy, Nanjing Jinlong, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and Chery Commercial Vehicles , Dongfeng Motor, etc. have all announced the landing of lithium 18650 battery phosphate models.

　　The DEV Lite model launched by Xint Auto, a new force in car manufacturing, for the personal consumer market will use lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries. The purpose is to avoid losses even after subsidies are completely cancelled.

　　Xu Xingwu, executive vice president of Guoxuan High-Tech Engineering Research Institute, said that in terms of price, the price of lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries is 20% lower than that of ternary material lithium batteries. The cost of lithium 18650 battery phosphate battery systems is already 1 yuan/watt hour. Below, while the ternary material lithium battery is still above 1 yuan. Yang Yusheng also said that there is no risk in high-nickel ternary lithium batteries, and iron phosphate batteries should be the main force to increase lifespan and reduce costs.

　　In terms of battery safety, Yang Yusheng also questioned ternary lithium batteries. Since the beginning of 2019, spontaneous combustion accidents of electric vehicles have occurred frequently. According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 40 electric vehicle safety accidents related to power batteries reported by domestic and foreign media. This data shows more on the new energy vehicle national big data platform. According to the "New Energy Vehicle National Supervision Platform Big Data Safety Supervision Results Report", since May 2019, the new energy vehicle national supervision platform has discovered a total of 79 safety incidents. The accident involved 96 vehicles.

　　Yang Yusheng said that more than 90% of self-igniting vehicles are pure electric vehicles using ternary lithium batteries. If a spontaneous combustion accident occurs in such a vehicle, there will be no time to escape inside the car and no time to rescue outside the car. The "2019 Power Battery Safety Research Report" released by the Tsinghua University Battery Safety Laboratory also directly confirmed Yang Yusheng's concerns.

　　The report shows that as the installed proportion of ternary lithium batteries and square case batteries increases, the causes of accidents have a common feature. From the perspective of battery type, most of the accident vehicles are equipped with ternary lithium-ion batteries. From the shape, more accidents come from Square case battery.

　　In the future, more stable lithium 18650 battery phosphate batteries may gradually boost installed capacity and return to its peak.

　　How can China take the next step in electrification? Industry insiders have analyzed that the best way to enter the new energy vehicle market is to adhere to one technical path as the main one, with other supplements as the premise, and to enter the new energy vehicle market steadily and steadily.

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