Research on the development status and forecast of 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry chain

　　Lithium batteries, as they are now commonly known, are accurately called lithium-ion batteries. They mainly rely on the movement of lithium ions between the positive electrode and the negative electrode to work: when charging, lithium ions are deintercalated from the positive electrode, swim through the separator in the electrolyte, and embed in the negative electrode. The negative electrode is in a lithium-rich state; the opposite is true during discharge. The relevant materials in this process - positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte (liquid electrolyte) and separator - are called the four key materials of lithium-ion batteries. In addition, other materials required for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries include aluminum foil (carrier for bonding positive electrode materials), copper foil (carrier for bonding negative electrode materials), adhesives, insulators, structural parts (casing cover board) etc.

　　Compared with other secondary batteries (rechargeable batteries) such as lead-acid batteries, nickel metal hydride batteries, and nickel cadmium batteries, lithium-ion batteries came out the latest. The world's first 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v was introduced to the market by Sony in 1990. Because of its high energy density, relatively safe use, no memory effect (superior overall performance), and environmental protection (does not contain lead, cadmium, mercury and other elements that pollute the environment), lithium-ion batteries have developed rapidly since their inception, and the market size has grown rapidly. Expanding, in the next few years it will definitely surpass lead-acid batteries and become the most widely used secondary battery product.

　　Lithium-ion batteries are completely replacing other secondary batteries. In the power tool market, which was once the largest application market for nickel-cadmium batteries, lithium-ion batteries have completely replaced it, and the current market share has exceeded 95%. In the consumer electronics market, nickel-metal hydride batteries have been squeezed out by lithium-ion batteries and have basically withdrawn. In the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) market, although nickel-metal hydride batteries still occupy the mainstream, the proportion of applications is declining year by year. In the main application markets of lead-acid batteries such as electric bicycles, electric tricycles, low-speed electric vehicles and mobile base station power supplies, lithium-ion batteries are being replaced by lithium-ion batteries at an increasingly accelerated rate; in the vehicle starting power supply market where lead-acid batteries are the largest and most robust, lithium-ion batteries are also replacing Start trying alternatives.

　　The development of intelligence is inseparable from lithium-ion batteries. Accordingly, lithium-ion batteries are constantly opening up new huge markets. The rapid development of intelligent mobile communication terminals - the rapid popularity of smartphones, benefits from the application of lithium-ion batteries. The premise of automobile intelligence is automobile electrification. The current wave of electric vehicle development is only possible because of lithium-ion batteries. In the future, the power grid will also be intelligent, and the implementation of smart grid will also rely on lithium-ion batteries. In summary, every wave of intelligence will definitely cause the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v market to grow exponentially.

　　Will there be new secondary battery technologies to replace lithium-ion batteries in the future? True Lithium Research believes that this requires a better overall trade-off between performance (with energy density as the core) and cost, which is not feasible at least in the foreseeable future (15 years or even longer). Arrived. The reason why lithium-ion batteries have become a definite trend to replace lead-acid batteries is because its overall performance is several times better than that of lead-acid batteries. At the same time, when the market size is only half of that of lead-acid batteries, its cost is very close to that of lead-acid batteries ( At present, the price of lithium-ion batteries has dropped to less than 1 yuan/Wh and continues to fall, and the price of lead-acid batteries is 0.6 yuan/Wh and is no longer falling). New secondary battery technologies such as lithium-sulfur batteries and lithium-air batteries, whose energy density is significantly higher than that of lithium-ion batteries, are generally accepted to be large-scale applications only after 2025 or even 2030. However, the cost must be close to that of lithium-ion batteries. It's something more distant. At the same time, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the energy density of lithium-ion batteries, and there is also a lot of room for a reduction in cost. Taken together, lithium-ion batteries will dominate the secondary battery market for a relatively long time.

　　Development of the global lithium battery industry chain

　　As mentioned earlier, the development of intelligence has benefited from the application of lithium-ion batteries, which has also led to the explosion of the lithium battery industry chain. Consumer electronics products represented by laptops, mobile phones, and tablets have started the first stage of intelligence. Sony's first commercial 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v (18650 cylindrical battery) was used in laptops, which directly promoted The rapid popularity of notebook computers; the successful development of prismatic 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v products has directly promoted the rapid popularity of feature phones; and the application of soft-pack lithium-ion batteries has allowed smartphones to quickly become popular, and notebook computers have developed into thinner and lighter ultrabooks , at the same time, we are constantly creating new products and new markets, such as tablets, Bluetooth speakers, smart watches and other wearable devices. Statistics from True Lithium Research show that the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the consumer electronics market has grown rapidly from 5,000 kWh in 1990 to 66.09 million kWh in 2017, with an average annual compound growth rate of 40.4% in 28 years. At present, the demand for lithium batteries in the consumer electronics market has been basically saturated.

　　The popularization of intelligent mobile communication terminals and the development of 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v technology have provided fertile ground for intelligent automobiles, and electric vehicles have emerged as the times require. In December 2010, General Motors and Nissan successively launched electric vehicle products VOLT and LEAF in the U.S. market, starting the second stage of intelligence. In 2011, the first year of commercialization of electric vehicles, a total of 68,000 electric vehicles were sold worldwide, corresponding to a demand for lithium-ion batteries of 1.767 million kWh. In 2017, a total of 1.4 million electric vehicles were sold globally, with an average annual compound growth rate of 54% over the past seven years; the corresponding 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v demand was 53.7 million kWh, with an average annual compound growth rate of 63%. The era of vehicle electrification has arrived. The great development of electric vehicles has also directly driven the application of lithium-ion batteries in other means of transportation such as electric bicycles, electric tricycles, and low-speed electric vehicles. In 2017, the demand for lithium batteries in the entire transportation market was 66.67 million kWh, surpassing consumer electronics products. The market has become the largest application market for lithium-ion batteries.

　　The electrification and intelligence of cars have just begun. Most major countries and car giants have released ambitious electric vehicle development plans, and they are constantly raising their target values. China plans to produce and sell more than 2 million electric passenger vehicles in 2020, and the proportion of electric vehicle sales in 2025 will reach 25% (based on a total of 30 million vehicles, it will reach 7.5 million in 2025), and it will reach 50% in 2030 ; Germany, the United Kingdom, India, the Netherlands and other countries have successively released timetables for the suspension of sales of fuel vehicles, generally between 2030 and 2040. The German Volkswagen Group just signed several power battery purchase contracts on May 3, with a total bid amount of up to 40 billion euros, which is double the total purchase amount announced by the group a few weeks ago. Volkswagen Group promised investors at its annual shareholder meeting held on the same day that by 2025, the group plans to sell 3 million electric vehicles per year. Other overseas car giants such as General Motors, Renault-Nissan, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and even Toyota, as well as major Chinese car companies, also have similar grand plans, so I won’t go into details here. In summary, the demand for lithium batteries in the electric vehicle market will maintain rapid growth in the coming years.

　　In terms of battery power carried by end products, consumer electronics such as mobile phones are measured in Wh, and electric vehicles are measured in kWh. The great development of electric vehicles has made it possible for humans to explore the application of lithium-ion batteries at the MWh level (1MWh = 1000kWh = 01,000kWh). Therefore, intelligence has opened the third stage - the smart grid energy storage market. Starting roughly in 2011, major countries and regions such as Japan, the United States, China and Europe have increasingly carried out empirical tests of related energy storage projects. Among them, the "Zhangbei Wind and Solar Storage and Transmission Demonstration" put into trial operation by the State Grid of China on December 25, 2011 "Project" was the largest project at the time, using a total of 95,000 kWh of secondary batteries to store power generated by wind power and photovoltaics, including 63,000 kWh of lithium-ion batteries.

　　The potential scale of the energy storage market is much larger than that of the electric vehicle market. At present, humans consume about 68 billion kWh of electricity every day. Due to the significant differences in electricity consumption in various time periods, the required power generation is significantly more than 68 billion kWh. The use of energy storage can realize peak shifting and valley filling, reducing the huge investment in power generation facilities. If 1% of the daily power consumption comes from secondary batteries, it will generate 680 million kWh of lithium battery demand, which is approximately equivalent to the battery usage of 15 million electric vehicles. If the peak-shifting and valley-filling of electricity is fully realized, it may require 10% or more. The battery demand for this alone is much larger than the electric vehicle market (the total global vehicle production in 2017 was 97.3 million units, and has grown slowly over the years). Moreover, the popularity of energy storage allows people to use electricity anytime and anywhere, and will also create more new demands for electricity. Just like the surge in demand for mobile phone WIFI traffic driven by the development of 3G, 4G, and 5G, the scale of these new energy storage demands that are currently difficult to predict may be even larger than the above-mentioned energy storage market.

　　Generally speaking, every wave of intelligent development will bring about exponential growth in the size of the lithium battery market. Coupled with the replacement market for other secondary batteries such as lead-acid batteries, the development prospects of the lithium battery industry chain are unlimited.

　　The great development of the lithium battery market has directly led to the great development of materials required for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries (including the four key materials of cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, separators and other auxiliary materials), raw materials required for manufacturing related materials and other industries. , also rapidly increasing the demand for the resources required for the manufacturing of these materials and raw materials. Table 2 is a description of the lithium battery industry chain. The specific industrial development of these materials and resources is not described here.

　　From the perspective of development history and region, the development of the global lithium battery industry chain can generally be summarized as the "Romance of China, Japan and South Korea", with China catching up from behind. In the last decade of the last century, the industry was almost entirely concentrated in Japan, and then began to spread to China and South Korea. In the first decade of this century, the lithium battery industries of China and South Korea were catching up with Japan. Korean companies represented by Samsung SDI and LG Chem relied on their superior imitation capabilities in automated production equipment to reduce costs and surpassed Japan in the mid-to-high-end market, forcing some Japanese giants to merge and reorganize (Sanyo Electric, the world's largest 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v company at the time) Merged by Panasonic in 2009), or withdraw from the lithium battery industry (such as Toshiba, NEC, etc.). Chinese companies represented by BYD, Tianjin Lishen, ATL, BAK, etc. have also emerged strongly relying on the "BYD model" of "semi-manual and semi-mechanized" and occupied the mid-to-low-end market. With the strong development of the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry in China and South Korea, the related materials and raw material manufacturing industries required for battery manufacturing have also grown rapidly from scratch. In most fields, they have also caught up with Japan.

　　The second decade of this century started the process of China's lithium battery industry surpassing Japan and South Korea. After the new generation of leaders came to power, they attached great importance to the development of new energy vehicles and launched a vigorous policy package that achieved immediate results. Since 2013, China's electric vehicle and lithium battery new energy industries have developed rapidly. By 2015, China's electric vehicle production and sales began to account for half of the world's total. . Driven by the demand for electric vehicles, in just a few years, China's 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v and related materials and raw material industries have surpassed Japan and South Korea in scale. At the same time, their manufacturing capabilities and technical capabilities have also made great progress, moving towards China. The high-end product market is making great strides. From a global perspective, the current development of China's lithium battery industry chain is "uniquely good here."

　　Let’s take a closer look at the development of China’s lithium battery industry chain.

　　Development status of China's lithium battery industry chain

　　The development of China's lithium battery industry chain has gone through a process from scratch to extremely complete. Tianjin Lishen was registered and established in 1997, marking the beginning of the localization of lithium-ion batteries. Immediately after BYD intervened in the lithium battery business, TCL Jinneng, ATL, Bangkai, Jingjin Energy, BAK, etc. were successively established from 1999 to 2001. Lithium-ion batteries The production team expanded rapidly. With the clustering and scale of the battery industry, the localization process of materials, raw materials and resources is also rapid. In 2000, CITIC Guoan Alliance Guli was established, and the localization process of the most critical cathode materials began. At almost the same time, Shanghai Shanshan's anode material project achieved mass production, marking the beginning of the localization of anode materials. Since then, materials such as electrolytes, separators, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and lithium carbonate have been gradually produced locally.

　　With the deepening of localization, China has an extremely complete lithium battery industry chain. As of the end of 2017, in terms of the four key materials, the localization rate of cathode materials reached 92%, the localization rate of negative electrode materials and electrolytes exceeded 98%, and the localization rate of separators has rapidly increased to 90% in recent years. A number of world-class companies have emerged in China's key materials. While achieving self-sufficiency, a considerable number of them are exported to overseas markets.

　　The rapid development of electric vehicles in recent years has enabled China's lithium battery industry chain to catch up with Japan and South Korea in terms of scale. As can be seen from the figure above, the global share of the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry has increased rapidly in recent years, reaching 50% by the end of 2017. The industrial scale of the four key materials is developing faster. By the end of 2017, the global proportion of cathode material industry scale accounted for more than 60%, anode material accounted for more than 75%, electrolyte accounted for more than 70%, and separator accounted for more than 50%. In terms of other materials, at present, except for the aluminum-plastic film industry, which is the packaging material for soft-pack batteries, the scale is still relatively small (note: the base materials required by domestic aluminum-plastic film companies currently basically come from overseas, and have not yet been domestically produced in essence), other The industry scale of materials occupies a considerable share in the world.

　　Industrial scale is mainly reflected in two aspects: market share and number of companies. What is mentioned above is market share. In terms of the number of companies, in almost every link of the lithium battery industry chain, the number of Chinese companies far exceeds that of other overseas countries combined, and it has completely surpassed it in scale. China has successfully taken the first step in its development plan from small to large and then from big to strong.

　　The development and expansion of scale has promoted the rapid progress of enterprises in China's lithium battery industry chain in terms of manufacturing capabilities and technical capabilities. In terms of manufacturing capabilities, in terms of lithium-ion batteries, Chinese companies represented by CATL, BYD, Tianjin Lishen, etc. have reached or surpassed Japanese and Korean giants such as Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI in terms of automated production. Great progress has been made in control and product quality in recent years. The number of control nodes on the battery production line was only about 100 among leading Chinese companies in 2014. By 2017, it had grown to more than 1,000, which is basically the same as that of Japanese and Korean giants. Correspondingly, the yield rate has increased significantly: the yield rate of China's leading companies has increased from about 70% in 2014 to more than 90% in 2017. As the capabilities of engineers continue to improve, the yield rate of China's leading companies is expected to be on par with Japanese and Korean giants around 2020. Significant progress in batteries is of course inseparable from advances in materials and equipment, which will not be discussed in detail here.

　　In terms of technical capabilities, China's leading companies may have reached the level of Korean giants, and are generally not inferior to overseas companies. Above 200Wh/kgIn terms of the application of high-energy-density batteries, the installed capacity of pure electric passenger cars in China accounted for 1/3 in 2017. In overseas markets, in addition to Panasonic and Tesla, the electric passenger car products of other car companies The energy density of installed batteries of Korean giants LG Chem and Samsung SDI generally does not reach 200Wh/kg. In terms of the production of high-nickel NCM811 materials, more than 80% of the world's NCM811 materials were produced by Chinese companies in 2017 (the supply of Chinese companies was more than 1,100 tons).

　　As cars have entered an era of electrification, China's rapid progress in lithium batteries has attracted great attention from countries such as Japan, South Korea, the United States, and Europe. In the recent YYW-US trade dispute, the United States has clearly expressed relevant concerns. For China, doing a good job in the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry will be very conducive to achieving "overtaking around the corner" in the automotive field, and will also lay a solid foundation for the development of key industries and infrastructure intelligence such as smart cars and smart grids in the future. Thus, it has the ability to promote the continuous upgrading of the entire industrial economic structure and ultimately achieve the take-off of China's economy.

　　Development characteristics of lithium battery industry chain

　　Usually, the development of a country's secondary industry will go through three stages from low to high in terms of production methods: from labor-intensive to capital-intensive to technology-intensive. Generally speaking, an industry usually only has one of the attributes of one type. Therefore, from a national perspective, when the economy develops to a certain level, the industry needs to "vacate the cage and change the bird." This is to adjust the industrial structure. The lithium battery industry chain is a special industry. There are two special features: first, the lithium battery industry has transitioned from labor-intensive to capital-intensive; second, the lithium battery industry has been technology-intensive from beginning to end, which is why its market continues to expand. root cause. Specific to enterprises, survival and development need to continue to rely on technological progress, otherwise they will be eliminated. These two points are the most distinctive features of the development of the lithium battery industry chain.

　　As mentioned earlier, the rise of China's lithium battery industry chain relies on the "BYD model" of "semi-manual and semi-mechanized". This model was very suitable for the social characteristics of China's abundant and relatively cheap labor force at that time, and it was also very consistent with the market characteristics of the time. At that time, lithium-ion batteries were only used in the consumer electronics market. Generally speaking, a consumer terminal product is only equipped with one battery; laptop computers are relatively complex, with 4-6 batteries in one computer. Generally speaking, the market did not have high requirements for the consistency of batteries at that time. Chinese companies were able to rely on their low-cost advantages and the diligence and wisdom of the Chinese people to quickly develop the lithium battery industry into one of the "three pillars."

　　With the advent of the electric vehicle era, the main application scenarios have changed. The number of lithium-ion batteries assembled in a vehicle ranges from hundreds to thousands or even tens of thousands, which requires high consistency of batteries. The "semi-manual and semi-mechanized" "BYD model" is no longer suitable. Large-scale, highly automated production has become a must. In this way, the battery production method must transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive. At present, the production of power lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles in China is basically automated. Among them, the advanced production equipment of leading companies such as CATL and BYD even surpasses that of Japanese and Korean lithium battery giants. China's lithium battery industry has generally successfully transformed into a capital-intensive industry.

　　In the future energy storage market represented by smart grid applications, the number of lithium-ion batteries in an energy storage system may be tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands. This requires higher consistency of batteries, requiring larger scale and higher With high-level and higher-efficiency automated production, the capital intensity will further increase, and at the same time, the technological content of the production itself will also further increase.

　　The consistency of batteries not only requires large-scale and automated production of the battery itself, but also puts forward increasingly higher requirements for the consistency of various required materials. The material field also requires large-scale and high-level automated production. Therefore, , the materials industry, like batteries, is gradually developing into a heavy-asset industry, and capital intensity is constantly increasing.

　　The technology-intensive nature of the lithium battery industry chain runs through the birth and development of the industry. As far as the most critical 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v energy density indicator is concerned, the energy density of the first battery launched by Sony in 1990 was less than 120Wh/kg. Now the energy density of lithium-ion batteries used in high-end mobile phones has generally reached 250Wh/kg, while electric The leading company in the energy density of automotive power lithium-ion batteries has achieved more than 300Wh/kg. Every small improvement in battery energy density requires concerted efforts from all links in the industry chain to promote it. Today, with the rapid development of electric vehicles, this feature is becoming more and more obvious. In the new energy vehicle subsidy policy launched by the Chinese government in the past two years, we can see that the relevant technical requirements are improving year by year, which is equivalent to requiring companies to significantly improve their products every year, otherwise they will be eliminated from the market. In this way, the survival and development of enterprises need to continue to rely on technological progress.

　　Data from the Ministry of Science and Technology show that in 2017, total social R&D expenditure (investment in research and development) was approximately 1.76 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.15% of GDP, exceeding the average level of 2.1% among the 15 EU countries. True Lithium Research's tracking shows that in 2017, the R&D expenditures of major companies in the lithium battery industry chain accounted for the proportion of corporate revenue, and most of them reached a high level of more than 4%. The prospectus of CATL, China's largest 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v company, shows that the company's R&D expenditures in the first half of 2017 even accounted for more than 10% of its current revenue. The corresponding R&D team has as many as 3,628 people, most of whom have master's and doctoral degrees. . The direct result of high R&D investment is the rapid progress of China's lithium battery industry. Chinese companies are conquering the global market. Among them, CATL's capabilities have been widely recognized by European car giants, such as BMW, Renault, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and other LG Chem and Major customers of Samsung SDI have signed huge battery purchase orders with CATL. It is foreseeable that under the continuous policy promotion of the Chinese government, the technology-intensive characteristics of China's lithium battery industry chain will become increasingly strengthened.

　　In addition, through the previous analysis, we can actually see that 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v products may have the basic attributes of bulk commodities in the future. Like crude oil, non-ferrous metals, steel, etc., they are widely used in industrial and agricultural production and consumption in large quantities. Necessary material goods for buying and selling. However, what is significantly different from general commodities is that lithium-ion batteries require increasingly high technical content, which also requires the materials and raw materials required to manufacture batteries, as well as related production equipment and testing equipment, to also have increasingly high standards. technical content. Such a commodity is a basic element that promotes the continuous upgrading of industrial and agricultural production and consumption. Becoming a special, high-tech commodity will also be a significant feature of the development of the lithium battery industry.

　　Lithium battery industry chain development forecast

　　Among the three major markets for lithium-ion batteries (consumer electronics market, vehicle electrification market, and industrial & energy storage market), the vehicle electrification market demand represented by electric vehicles has surpassed the consumer market to become the largest in 2017. market. It is not difficult to see that in the next few years, the demand growth of the lithium battery market will rely more on electric vehicles. After that, the energy storage market represented by smart grids will rise, giving the lithium battery industry chain greater room for demand growth.

　　In 2017, the "Medium and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Lianzhuang [2017] No. 53, hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") clearly stated that the development goal of China's new energy vehicles is: 2 million in 2020 More than 20% of sales in 2025 (corresponding to 7 million vehicles). At present, almost all new energy vehicles are electric vehicles. Based on this goal, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in China's electric vehicle market may reach more than 100GWh in 2020. The total demand for lithium batteries in all markets will reach 183GWh, and the total output value will reach 183 billion yuan (according to the government Target 1 yuan/Wh), plus materials, raw materials and related equipment industries, the total output value of all links in the lithium battery industry chain (excluding downstream applications) will reach more than 400 billion yuan.

　　(Note: This forecast was made around the Spring Festival in 2018. The actual situation shows that the total installed capacity of lithium batteries in China's electric vehicle market is significantly higher than the forecast at that time)

　　It is expected that by 2025, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in China's electric vehicle market alone will reach 350GWh (if the "Plan" goal can be roughly achieved). In this way, taking into account the gradual decline in battery and material selling prices, the entire lithium battery industry chain in the Chinese market (Excluding downstream applications) the total output value of each link may exceed 1 trillion yuan. By then, the energy storage market may fully explode, continuing to bring sustained and strong high-growth momentum to the development of the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry.

　　In terms of battery energy density and cost, the goals set forth in the "Plan" are: by 2020, the energy density of a power battery cell will reach more than 300Wh/kg, and strive to achieve 350Wh/kg. The system energy density will strive to reach 260Wh/kg, and the cost will be reduced to Less than 1 yuan/Wh. Among them, if the system energy density target is achieved, it will basically solve the "range anxiety" problem of electric vehicles. If the cost target can be achieved, electric vehicles will have usage benefits. If both goals are achieved, electric vehicles will usher in an era in which they can develop rapidly without subsidies. At the same time, China may lead the global development of lithium batteries and even electric vehicles. True Lithium Research predicts that the cost target will generally be achieved by then, while some high-end products can achieve the system energy density target, and the time for general realization may be delayed by one to two years.

　　While the market scale continues to expand, as energy density and cost targets continue to advance, the industrial concentration in each link of the lithium battery industry chain will also continue to increase. This will be reflected in both the number of enterprises and the regional distribution of industries. In terms of the number of companies, taking automotive power lithium-ion batteries as an example, the centralization process started in 2017 and there was also a reshuffle. At the end of the year, the number of battery companies was 89, a decrease of 20 from the previous year. True Lithium Research predicts that there will be a further reduction of 30 companies in 2018, and there may be only about 20 companies left by the end of 2020. At the same time, the production capacity of each surviving company will be significantly expanded compared to the current level. Various related materials and raw materials have also started a process of centralization and reshuffling. The market share of companies whose technological progress cannot keep up with the development level of the industry is shrinking, while the market share of technology-leading companies is expanding at a high speed. The specific situation I won’t go into details here.

　　The high subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has stimulated the rapid development of the industry, but it has also led to a combination of mud and sand. As the subsidy policy gradually increases the technical requirements, it is increasingly difficult for backward enterprises to survive. True Lithium Research believes that there will be two successive waves of reshuffle in the lithium battery industry before 2025. The current wave is the first wave, which is directly reflected in changes in market share. Behind it is the gap in capabilities, including technical capabilities and manufacturing capabilities. . It is expected that a second wave of reshuffle will begin after 2020, which will be directly reflected in technological changes. Behind it is the possession (or acceptance) and transformation ability of innovative technologies. Possible new technologies include solid-state 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v technology, solid solution cathode material technology including lithium-rich manganese-based materials, etc. Some new technologies may bring about revolutionary changes in production methods. Therefore, the lithium battery industry structure formed after the current wave of reshuffle is not stable.

　　In terms of regional distribution, True Lithium Research believes that within China, the lithium battery industry chain will definitely be highly concentrated in a few places. This is mainly determined by the following two factors: first, product technology development requires an increasingly high degree of collaborative cooperation, and even requires centralized groups to tackle key problems. Partners are close to each other, which is conducive to collaborative development; second, how to layout production to reduce costs, Enterprises will increasingly focus on comprehensive considerations. The main factors for enterprise location selection include: proximity to the market or resources to reduce transportation costs, choosing a place where production factors (land, talent, energy, capital, etc.) are cheap or easy to obtain to reduce production costs, and expectations for a stable policy environment. , which is conducive to the company's progress as a team, consideration of employees' living costs, etc. At present, corporate location selection generally focuses on one or two factors, resulting in a relatively fragmented lithium battery industry. After comprehensive consideration of various factors, some regions will stand out.

　　Regarding the resources needed for the development of the lithium battery industry, True Lithium Research believes that except for the certain demand for lithium resources, the demand for other resources is more or less uncertain because they may be replaced. The soaring price of cobalt in the past year or so has promoted the rapid application of high-nickel and low-cobalt cathode materials, which will eventually lead to the early arrival of the cobalt-free era; if solid-state lithium-ion batteries are commercialized, they will compress the electrolyte and The living space of the membrane reduces the demand for petrochemical resources; etc. This possible uncertainty in resource-side demand makes it more difficult for us to judge the future development pattern and technology development trends of the lithium battery industry, but it also gives opportunities to latecomers, making the development of lithium batteries full of charm.

　　Conclusion

　　The fourth industrial revolution may have arrived. Throughout history, every industrial revolution has profoundly affected the destiny of the country. The first industrial revolution began in the United Kingdom from the 1760s to the 1840s. Marked by Watt's improved steam engine, Britain took the lead in completing the transition from factory handicrafts to large-scale machine-based industrial production, creating the "Empire on which the Sun Never Sets". brilliant. The second industrial revolution began in the United States from the second half of the 19th century to the early 20th century. Electricity replaced steam, making industrial production more efficient and larger in scale. The United States thus replaced Britain's international status. After World War II, mankind entered the third industrial revolution represented by the technological revolution. Technology triggered the Internet information revolution and made industrial production more complex and advanced. The United States continued to lead and developed into a super country, dominating the global landscape. status.

　　The large-scale application of lithium-ion batteries may be the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution. The application of lithium-ion batteries has promoted the popularity of notebook computers and brought mankind into the era of mobile work. At the same time, lithium-ion batteries have also made mobile communication terminals intelligent, making the release and acquisition of information faster and more convenient than ever before. The current wave of vehicle electrification that is in full swing has made the prospects for intelligent transportation increasingly clear. In the near future, power grid infrastructure and even industrial production may gradually become intelligent based on lithium-ion batteries, and human production and life will enter a higher level.

　　For China, missing the first industrial revolution caused China to fall behind and its national strength began to decline; missing the second industrial revolution caused China to suffer bullying from Western powers in modern times, which eventually triggered Japan to launch a full-scale war of aggression against China. Reform and opening up has allowed China to catch up with the last train of the third industrial revolution. China's economy has embarked on a miracle of sustained rapid growth, and its comprehensive national strength has increased significantly. It is now ranked second in the world after the United States. Now, if the 18650 lithium ion battery 3.7v industry can successfully grow from large to strong, then China will not only achieve "overtaking in the corner" in the field of electric vehicles, but may also take the lead in smart grids and other intelligent fields. China's future will be even more... bright.

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