The 14250 battery over technology routes has reignited. Is it too late to switch to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?

　　As the leader of the overall expert group for the national key new energy vehicle projects during the "11th Five-Year Plan", "12th Five-Year Plan" and "13th Five-Year Plan", Ouyang Minggao's statement was naturally resounding. He said bluntly: "We must analyze rationally. The technology itself cannot be followed blindly!”

　　In the PPT played during Professor Ouyang's speech, it was written more clearly: "Pure electric drive will be carried out to the end!"

　　The dispute over the technical route of new energy vehicles is not a new topic. However, as plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and pure electric vehicles (EV) gain favor in policies and markets, fuel cell vehicles (FCV) such as hydrogen and methanol were once "relegated to the sidelines."

　　Nowadays, FCV has the momentum of "rising" again, and China's new energy vehicle industry is also likely to have another "technical route dispute." After making the decision of "left or right", whether it is "overtaking on a curve" or "changing lanes to overtake", the best opportunity may no longer exist.

　　3 ministries and commissions mentioned “hydrogen fuel”

　　This sends a strong signal: the country is not satisfied with the weak accumulation of fuel cell technology and will invest more resources in technological research.

　　"In terms of fuel cell systems, there is still a clear gap between the scientific research level of my country's stacks and foreign countries." said Xu Chaoqian, deputy director of the Department of High-tech Development and Industrialization of the Ministry of Science and Technology.

　　Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Economic Construction Department of the Ministry of Finance, also said: "Power batteries have not yet made a fundamental breakthrough, some key components are still controlled by others, the fuel cell vehicle industry chain is fully backward, and there is also a gap in product quality compared with foreign advanced levels. "

　　In view of this, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have made fuel cell technology one of the focuses of the next phase of work.

　　Xu Chaoqian said that one of the two focuses of the Ministry of Science and Technology in the later stages of the 13th Five-Year Plan and the 14th Five-Year Plan will be to “focus on the key core technologies of hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles, as well as core technologies such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, and hydrogenation. research and development, and continue to strengthen advanced power battery technology and next-generation power electronic device technology."

　　Qu Guochun, deputy director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also said that in the future, he will "carry out demonstration operations of fuel cell vehicles, select areas with government enthusiasm and good fuel cell industry foundations to carry out promotion and application demonstrations, open up key links in the industrial chain, and improve standards and systems." ".

　　Visited Japan 2 times

　　According to Ouyang Minggao's statement at the TEDA Forum, the "reversal" of the industry's attitude towards fuel cells is not only due to the increase in subsidies, but also seems to be related to the previous visit to Japan by national leaders.

　　On May 11 this year, Premier Li Keqiang visited Toyota Motor's Hokkaido plant.

　　Toyota has concentrated its most advanced high-tech products and technologies in this factory in Tomakomai City. When visiting MIRAI (Future), a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle developed by Toyota, Li Keqiang showed great interest.

　　Official media reported that Li Keqiang focused on safety issues such as hydrogen compression storage and hydrogen refueling station layout.

　　At that time, some domestic analysts believed that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which have always been ignored in China, are expected to turn around. By the end of August this year, Minister of Science and Technology Wang Zhigang visited Japan again.

　　When visiting Kyushu University, Wang Zhigang focused on the school's Hydrogen Energy International Research and Education Center, visited the 250-kilowatt large-scale fuel cell in demonstration demonstrations, new household combined electricity and heat fuel cells and hydrogenation stations, and discussed hydrogen production, We had in-depth exchanges with Japanese experts on hydrogen storage and hydrogen power generation.

　　Wang Zhigang expressed the hope that the two sides will strengthen cooperation in hydrogen energy research and development.

　　According to the news released by the Chinese Consulate in Fukuoka: "Following Premier Li's visit to Japan in May this year, the Ministry of Science and Technology's mission to Japan has also released a new signal for deepening cooperation between China and Japan in the energy field. Through exchanges, we can learn from Japan." Advanced hydrogen storage technology, hydrogen refueling station layout, and hydrogen vehicle systems will greatly promote the development of my country's hydrogen energy industry."

　　With the visits of the Prime Minister and Ministers to Japan, hydrogen-fueled vehicles seem to be "coming to light" in the Chinese market.

　　Is it too late?

　　For a long time, Japanese car companies represented by Toyota have shown little interest in developing plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles.

　　In Toyota's view, the ultimate form of alternative energy in the future is hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Before that, hybrid power, plug-in hybrid power, and pure electric power can all be used as transitions.

　　Currently, Toyota has sold more than 10 million hybrid vehicles globally. Even in the Chinese market, where market acceptance is relatively low, dual-engine models account for 10% of sales.

　　After becoming the dominant player in the hybrid market, Toyota launched the world's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, MIRAI (Future), in 2014, which is inseparable from its years of technology accumulation in the hybrid field.

　　Some car companies have also followed Toyota's lead. In 2015, Honda also launched its own hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, Clarity.

　　In fact, in addition to Toyota and Honda, South Korea's Hyundai Motor is also a "fan" of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It started related research and development work in 1998 and launched Tucsonix FCEV in 2013. In 2018, its new generation fuel cell Model NEXO is launched.

　　Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a series of advantages such as long cruising range, short hydrogenation time, low noise, wide sources of hydrogen, and renewable energy. However, the material costs of their core parts, proton exchange membrane and platinum catalyst, are quite expensive, making their cost much higher than Costs for traditional internal combustion vehicles and pure electric vehicles.

　　For Chinese car companies, in addition to expensive cost issues, the lag in technology accumulation is also a big difficulty.

　　At present, Chinese car companies are focusing their funds and energy on the research and development of plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles, and are basically in a state of "technological follow-up" for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

　　According to Xu Zaoqian, deputy director of the High-tech Development and Industrialization Department of the Ministry of Science and Technology, “Currently, the country does not even have the ability to produce hydrogen storage tanks that meet standards.”

　　There is no doubt that if the Chinese automobile industry wants to catch up with Japanese and Korean automobile companies in the field of hydrogen fuel cells, it will inevitably invest considerable resources and overcome considerable technical difficulties. At the same time, China also lags far behind Japan in the construction of supporting facilities and hydrogenation stations.

　　According to data from Sein Think Tank, as of the end of 2017, there were 139 operating hydrogen refueling stations in Europe, 68 in North America, and 128 in Asia (91 of which were in Japan). Currently, there are only 14 hydrogen refueling stations in operation in China, and another 33 hydrogen refueling stations are under planning and construction.

　　European hydrogen refueling station site distribution map

　　Distribution map of hydrogen refueling stations in Asia

　　North American hydrogen refueling station site distribution map

　　Japanese hydrogen refueling station site distribution map

　　China has operated hydrogen refueling stations (Source: Shiyin Think Tank)

　　Hydrogen refueling stations under construction in China (Source: Shiyin Think Tank)

　　Energy Chain believes that it is not too late to vigorously develop hydrogen fuel cell technology, based on the following reasons:

　　Industrial division of labor is still in its initial stage, and segmentation and collaboration are far from mature, which means that there are opportunities at many nodes in the industrial chain.

　　Whether they are Chinese companies or foreign companies, most companies have not yet made profits in the hydrogen fuel cell business, which means that this industry still has great prospects to be tapped. Ballard, a world-renowned stack company, has suffered losses for 30 consecutive years. It was not until last year that it achieved historic profits due to the Chinese market (technical licensing cooperation with several companies).

　　The most important infrastructure is the hydrogen refueling station. China is unparalleled in terms of infrastructure investment and construction. It can use this advantage to vigorously develop the construction of hydrogen refueling stations to drive the development of hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, commercial vehicles, material handling equipment, energy storage, microgrids and other terminal applications. .

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