Who will dominate future aa battery technology?

　　To promote coordinated development and achieve battery-led innovation, Zhang Yongwei, secretary-general and chief expert of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, summarized the following ten aspects:

　　First, repositioning the battery industry.

　　One conclusion found in our research is that the battery industry should be at the forefront of innovation in the entire electric vehicle industry and should play the role of "locomotive". The development of electric vehicles is indeed a systematic project. The innovations of this system include forward research and development of the entire vehicle, "three electrics", lightweight, intelligent and many other aspects. However, the most basic and important thing should be the breakthrough in battery technology. , the battery should be a key to solving many problems of electric vehicles, especially range anxiety, high cost and the need to improve performance. In the past, batteries did play an important role in the entire layout of electric vehicles, but now it seems that more emphasis is needed, especially for the lithium-powered battery route. It is indeed necessary to accelerate innovation and have a strong sense of urgency. . Pure electric technology routes, mainly lithium batteries and ternary batteries, need to accelerate innovation and find areas where they can exert their core competitiveness in the competition of technical routes, otherwise they will face the risk of being replaced. However, battery innovation is also facing many problems now. The chairman also mentioned just now that the entire battery ecology still has imbalance and uncoordinated problems. Materials are not coordinated with batteries, and batteries are not coordinated with the entire vehicle. There is also disharmony in the entire battery manufacturing and environmental protection industry chain. Therefore, the battery industry is at the forefront. To solve the current problem of imbalance and disharmony, this requires a repositioning of batteries.

　　Second, we need to attach great importance to upstream resource issues strategically.

　　In the early days of development, we rarely discussed resources and always believed that resources were endless. When resources now become a bottleneck, we feel that strategic resource planning should be put on the agenda as early as possible. This is how the industrial chain has evolved in the past. There are some shortcomings in the planning. Now all over the world, as everyone saw yesterday, India also proposed to use the power of the country to acquire and control key lithium and cobalt resources around the world. Now we lack a big layout. Our country's lithium resources are relatively abundant, but cobalt resources are poor. China only accounts for a little more than 1% of global cobalt reserves. Therefore, the resource bottleneck will slowly break through as electric vehicles increase from 100,000 to 100,000 units. When the scale reaches millions, and tens of millions by 2030, this bottleneck should be very prominent, so our second suggestion is to strategically plan upstream resource issues early. Now resource prices have become a prominent aspect of the entire disharmony. That is to say, the technical bottleneck of upstream resource development has led to our low self-production rate. Therefore, the supply of resources has tightened, so prices have skyrocketed. The skyrocketing prices have caused the entire industry chain to Cost pressure has risen sharply. Therefore, the room for price increase is passed on to the battery, to the vehicle, and then to the consumer. Therefore, this price has become the most important aspect of cost reduction in the electric vehicle industry. Supply-side reform, the supply side of our electric vehicle industry, and cost reduction of upstream resources should be our most important aspect, so that electric vehicles can enter the market faster.

　　Third, China’s competitive performance is better.

　　The chairman also mentioned just now that we account for half of the world's ten companies. In terms of output, production capacity, shipments, especially in terms of competitiveness, we have a rare opportunity to take the lead. Among our many emerging industries, the most satisfying one is electric vehicles, which can be praised by people in the world. When it comes to electric vehicles, in the entire automobile industry chain, the most effective thing is actually the battery. There are still problems in other aspects. So many shortcomings. Our production capacity is very large, and there is also the problem of wasted investment. The so-called investment blurring means that a large amount of investment is accumulated around some solid technologies and some low-end fields, which can easily create some production capacity that has no actual competitiveness. These production capacities may eventually become obstacles to industrial innovation, so production capacity Being bigger is not necessarily the biggest advantage, but without production capacity it is difficult to cross the threshold to build competition, so this is a double-edged sword.

　　Fourth, industry competition is mainly unfolding in the Asia-Pacific, including China, Japan and South Korea.

　　The chairman also mentioned just now that many Korean companies attended the meeting today. SK, LG, Samsung, Korean, Japanese and Chinese battery companies each have their own strengths, but we should really feel that in the next generation of batteries, In this round of competition, we are running on production capacity and using our management practices to make domestic companies grow rapidly. However, there is indeed great uncertainty about who will dominate the next generation of battery competition. . We have a vague feeling that if Chinese companies do not speed up the deployment of next-generation battery technology, the competitive landscape will be rewritten, so the pressure of competition is still huge. Indeed, in our industry, there are many good and bad, and there are many relatively extensive ones. Some practices have affected the reputation of the industry. The battery industry actually doesn’t have a very good reputation, and companies that do well are worthy of praise. However, many companies in these fields have indeed fallen into an extensive and blind development path of encircling land, money, and concepts. In the end, not only If you are unable to achieve righteousness on your own, it will also affect the reputation of the industry. Therefore, it is indeed necessary to encourage truly competitive companies to take on the important task of industry development, so that the industry can truly become bigger and stronger in future competition. This is an aspect that the battery industry really needs to pay close attention to.

　　Fifth, from the perspective of corporate development strategy, expanding into more areas and binding strategic resources have become important measures for battery companies.

　　Expanding the field does not mean expanding into real estate, but expanding into key cross-cutting areas upstream. Blind diversification also needs attention in the battery industry. Once a company feels that it has become such an influential brand in the industry, it is indeed critical to maintain a well-established strategy. We are very worried that companies will not be able to stick to their own strategies and over-consume market brands obtained through competition. This is also an issue that really needs to be grasped. It is necessary to seize opportunities but avoid falling into the trap of blind expansion. In addition, binding strategic resources, especially the layout of upstream resources through internationalization, is an important area that Chinese battery companies are currently exploring, allowing battery companies to assume the responsibility of national strategic resource planning. . Of course, as for how battery companies lay out the industrial chain, what everyone is currently paying the most attention to is the relationship between batteries and vehicles. Through in-depth cooperation between the two, it can indeed solve problems that special specialties could not solve in the past. In the past, batteries did not understand the entire vehicle, so the batteries delivered to the entire vehicle needed to be developed and reused. The entire vehicle did not understand the battery, and there are some issues that we need to study further on how the battery can achieve synergy with the entire vehicle. Through the deep integration between the two, we can solve the "two skins" problem of dual-track operation in the past. However, we also need to consider how to achieve a better "integration-zero relationship". We must not pursue this excessive pursuit of industrial expansion. At this time, let us lose independent, globally competitive and professional battery companies in the market. In a few years, such a company will disappear and transform into a company in other fields. This may not be the best result for the industry. That is, China really needs a number of independent and specialized battery companies with global competitiveness.

　　Sixth, batteries drive the rapid development of equipment, recycling, commercial operations and other businesses.

　　When batteries are developed, they are extremely motivating. They not only drive the development of our cars, but more importantly, equipment. Now the key to good batteries is good equipment. The key to good equipment is that companies can better understand the equipment. Therefore, companies that really do well in batteries are often companies that have a greater say in equipment. Therefore, batteries drive the development of the equipment industry, and also drive the development of the manufacturing industry and the development of intelligence. We found that the battery companies that are doing well are also the best in terms of intelligence. Their intelligent manufacturing, unmanned workshops, and product control are also first-class. Now the intelligence level of battery companies is already ahead of the OEMs. This is the reason why battery companies Its motivation. In addition, it also drives the innovation of new business models. Our research also found that it is very likely that in the next few years there will be national or even overseas battery operating companies. There will be both battery manufacturers and professional battery operating companies. These operating companies It integrates operation and recycling, and can also introduce financial attributes, and a good business model will be realized, that is, it operates batteries, recycles batteries, and utilizes batteries step by step, so that batteries can be digitized and assets are securitized, so in the profit model Maybe it will work. The battery itself is also being service-oriented, and the manufacturing industry is being service-oriented.

　　Seventh, who will control future technology?

　　We found that there is indeed very severe competition in technology. No one dares to guarantee who will dominate the future technology. If you look at the current cost of our power batteries, the cost of the battery cells has reached 5 cents or 6 cents per watt hour. We have achieved low cost through technological progress and have become very competitive. The chairman also talked about it just now, what is the next generation battery? There is indeed a great deal of competitive uncertainty. Therefore, we say that battery technology should play its unique advantages among many technical routes. However, which battery technology can dominate our industry in the future still needs to be observed through innovation. We cannot stay at the existing level, which is potential. Alternative technologies, even disruptive technologies, still exist, so there will be technological "black swans" in this field.

　　Eighth, the key lies in R&D and technological innovation.

　　Our research has found that the industry ultimately lies in innovation and R&D, especially source innovation. But in our field, we feel that the biggest problem is not just insufficient corporate investment. China is the fastest in technological and application innovation in the battery field, but source innovation and basic innovation are lacking. One of the important reasons why source innovation and basic innovation has not been solved for a long time is that our R&D organization method may need to be updated and improved. Those who do basic research often don’t care much about market demand. The chain of industry, academia, and research cannot be opened up. Some technology platforms that undertake national basic research have gone too far and are too engaged in product-level research and development. There is no Assuming the important responsibility of public technology basic research entrusted by the state, our investment and organization in source and basic fields are not in place. This also determines the possibility of weak innovation in this industry in the future, which is a hidden concern.

　　Ninth, promote coordinated development of industries.

　　It is recommended that the industry should have a good ecology and achieve coordinated development. Technology synergy, industrial synergy, market synergy, and interest synergy must also be synergistic. There cannot be too much distortion of interests. That is, long-term losses in a certain link may not be beneficial to the industry. Therefore, we must achieve both industrial synergy and to market synergy and interest synergy.

　　Tenth, in order to construct a good industrial ecology, it is necessary to establish a good policy and regulatory environment.

　　Battery is an industry with full competition and externalities, which requires more efficient and scientific management by the government. However, the government really needs to take into account the laws of innovation in this industry during management and leave sufficient expectations and policy adjustments for corporate technological improvements. time. The research and development cycle and replacement cycle take at least two years or even longer. Too rapid policy adjustments without many expected policy adjustments may make companies easily passive. Second, in supervision, we should put more emphasis on external supervision, such as safety and environmental protection, emphasize ex-post supervision, reduce some relatively simple administrative management, and develop some of the administrative methods we used in the early days that may require more ex-post externalities. Supervision to transform, so as to create a good industrial development environment for our enterprises.

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