aaa battery technology routes are diversified, Sanyuan is becoming more and more popular

　　In the future, the development trend of power batteries will definitely be ternary batteries as the mainstream, with multiple technical routes developing together. For enterprises, laying out two or even multiple technical routes for R&D and production has become a common choice for more and more enterprises.

　　On July 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 297th batch of licensed "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprises and Products" directory. According to statistics, a total of 227 new energy vehicles have entered the market, including 71 modified models and 27 chassis models.

　　Among the 227 new energy models, there are 110 models equipped with iron phosphate, accounting for 48.5%; while there are 57 models equipped with ternary material batteries, accounting for 25.1%; there are 39 models equipped with them, accounting for 25.1%. 17.2%; it is equipped with 3 models, accounting for 1.3%. In addition, there are 18 models without specifying the specific battery type.

　　Power battery routes are diversified

　　Obviously, the current power battery market is mainly divided into four technical routes, namely: lithium iron phosphate, ternary battery, lithium titanate, and lithium manganate. In addition, hydrogen fuel cells are gradually gaining favor in the market. Two fuel cells were shortlisted in the fourth batch of catalogs released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on May 2 and the fifth batch of catalogs released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on June 2.

　　Judging from the current development trend of power batteries, on the one hand, the development direction of power batteries can be basically determined; on the other hand, the research and development direction of power batteries is being promoted jointly by multiple lines. Although power batteries are in a state of "letting a hundred flowers bloom" on the technical roadmap, the competition for the mainstream market has been going on for a long time, and it is not yet known who will win.

　　Wang Binggang, leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Engineering Expert Group, pointed out that the technologies currently on the market may be eliminated, and it is still unclear which technology can be stabilized. Whoever can take the initiative in innovation may be able to master it. The fate of future power batteries.

　　Multiple routes to advance together

　　Wei Yincang, chairman of Zhuhai Yinlong, pointed out that power batteries should follow the five-pointed star theory, that is, long life, wide temperature resistance, high reliability, balanced power and energy density, multi-function, and low cost are also crucial. These power battery performance indicators are the common pursuit of all aaa battery companies.

　　But so far, no battery has surpassed other similar batteries in all performances. Therefore, each technical route has its own advantages and disadvantages in market application, and each has its own market foundation and main application fields.

　　Let’s first look at ternary batteries. Their biggest advantages are large battery capacity and high energy density, which can effectively alleviate passenger car consumers’ anxiety about battery range. They also make ternary batteries the dominant player in the passenger car market and in special-purpose vehicles. The market share in the field has also continued to increase.

　　Although ternary batteries have outstanding advantages in specific energy, the shortcomings of safety issues caused by poor thermal stability are also significant. On June 11, a car caught fire after hitting a guardrail in Rizhao City, Shandong Province. The cause of the accident is currently under investigation.

　　Previously, Tesla had suffered several fire accidents, including at the end of April, when a Tesla Model Two Model S vehicles at the charging station also caught fire. Whether the above accidents were due to internal or external causes, it shows that even technology leaders like Tesla cannot completely eliminate the fire hazard of ternary batteries.

　　Even so, other fire incidents occurred one after another. Fortunately, there were no collective casualties. Therefore, although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology lifted the restriction on the use of ternary batteries in passenger cars at the beginning of this year, in the 1 to 6 batches of recommended catalogs that have been released, ternary batteries are still basically excluded from the supporting batteries of passenger car models. As a battery for commercial buses, Application factors, safety is the first priority after all.

　　The safety of ternary batteries needs to be improved

　　Next, let’s look at iron phosphate. As the most mature technical route in China, lithium iron phosphate once dominated the domestic market with its performance advantages of high safety and high cycle. However, with the advancement of the new energy industry, the market development trend has begun to shift towards high energy density, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has basically reached the theoretical upper limit. Therefore, the defect of low energy density of lithium iron phosphate has become increasingly prominent, and it has gradually withdrawn from the mainstream market.

　　At present, lithium iron phosphate is losing ground in the competition with ternary batteries in the special vehicle market and has completely withdrawn from the passenger car market. Although the field of passenger cars is still dominated by lithium iron phosphate, the poor low-temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate also limits the use of lithium iron phosphate in winter and its promotion in the northern market, leaving lithium titanate and lithium manganate to carve up passenger cars. market opportunities.

　　Let’s look at lithium manganate. It is mainly used in the plug-in hybrid bus market and a small part of the pure electric bus market. The advantages of high safety and low cost of lithium manganate can fully meet the market demand for commercial buses. In the pure electric bus market , compared with lithium iron phosphate, it has the advantage of good low-temperature performance, allowing lithium manganate to gain a firm foothold in the northern passenger car market. However, the defect of poor high-temperature performance also limits its further expansion in the pure electric bus market.

　　Plug-in hybrid buses do not have high performance requirements for batteries, so battery price is particularly important in market competition. Phylion R&D Director Cheng Kai pointed out that the lithium manganate material itself has outstanding cost advantages. With the vigorous development of domestic new energy vehicles, the prices of raw materials have increased significantly. Lithium carbonate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, nickel, cobalt, and copper have all been spared. Only manganese dioxide, the main material of lithium manganate, has stable prices.

　　Finally, let’s look at lithium titanate and fuel cells. Currently, both types of batteries are only used in small quantities in the pure electric bus market, but the market is developing rapidly and has huge market potential. The rapid domestic development is inseparable from the rapid rise of Zhuhai Yinlong. In May 2010, Zhuhai Yinlong completed the acquisition of American Aoti Nanotechnology Co., Ltd., which laid technical support for Zhuhai Yinlong.

　　In December 2016, Dong Mingzhu invested in Zhuhai Yinlong in his own name, opening up the market for Zhuhai Yinlong. Compared with other technical routes, titanate pools far outperform other technical routes in terms of safety, cycle life, high and low temperature resistance, and charging time, but they also face the shortcomings of low energy density and high cost. However, Wei Yincang said that through continued innovative research and development, the energy density of Zhuhai Yinlong lithium titanate batteries will exceed that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the market potential will be further enhanced in the future.

　　Zhuhai Yinlong Bus

　　Hydrogen fuel cells can fundamentally solve the performance deficiencies and completely eliminate users' anxiety about battery performance such as safety and energy density. However, fuel cells also face practical difficulties such as high costs, difficulties in building hydrogen refueling stations, and difficulty in storing hydrogen fuel. At the same time, compared with foreign countries, the domestic market started relatively late, and it still needs to go through a market gestation period to make technical reserves.

　　Of course, even the defective parts of battery performance can still meet the minimum technical indicators for use in the market. With the continuous improvement of battery technology and the overall advancement of the new energy vehicle industry, the performance defects of various technical routes will gradually be made up for. For example, with the advancement of PACK's system management technology, battery safety problems can be gradually alleviated; with the advancement of fast charging technology, the problem of low battery energy density can be gradually alleviated; and domestic batteries double their energy density every four years and double their costs, etc. wait.

　　Replacement of ternary lithium iron phosphate is expected to become mainstream

　　Li Zhihua, chairman of Shanshan Energy, pointed out that for enterprises, the biggest problem in research and development is not to choose the wrong direction. 2017 is an inflection point in the development of new energy vehicles in China. A series of new policy adjustments are all aimed at the development direction of high energy density of power batteries. High specific energy ternary batteries have naturally become the darling of the market.

　　The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "suspension of the inclusion of ternary lithium buses in the catalog" in 2016 seems to have given lithium iron phosphate companies the illusion that lithium iron phosphate will continue to prosper. After all, it seems that the lithium iron phosphate route will continue to receive policy support in a short period of time. However, time has changed, and the new recommended catalog in 2017 has raised the standards for battery energy density, which has shattered this confidence; many companies have lamented that the trend has changed too quickly.

　　Policy changes rely on market demand. Market drivers are rooted in customer needs. Higher energy density ternary batteries are essentially consumers’ choices. my country's ternary technology started late and has a low technical level. As ternary batteries become the mainstream of the market, the research and development progress of ternary batteries will continue to accelerate. Compared with lithium iron phosphate, its advantages will continue to be highlighted.

　　Lithium iron phosphate's future market disadvantages are mainly reflected in two aspects. The first is the loss of the mainstream market for new energy vehicles. At present, the application market of lithium iron phosphate is mainly in the pure electric bus market. According to 2016 data, electric buses have accounted for nearly 90% of the market share in the passenger car market, and the space for market growth is getting smaller and smaller.

　　The market share of ternary batteries has steadily increased

　　Looking back at the ternary battery passenger car market, new energy passenger car sales accounted for 91.6% of the overall sales in the first quarter of 2017. New energy passenger cars have become a veritable market mainstream. At the same time, from the perspective of market potential, there are still There is huge market space to tap.

　　The second is that energy density has become a development trend. On the one hand, cruising range and charging problems, as users' biggest anxiety, directly affect consumers' willingness to buy cars. If the new energy industry wants to further open up the market, the key is to increase energy density.

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