In the future, lithium batteries will still dominate the new energy

Do we want to always use lithium batteries?Will there be other batteries to replace lithium batteries?This is a problem of the sustainable development of power battery technology.

First, lithium batteries will last for a long time.The current specific energy limit of lithium battery is about 300 watt-hours / kg, and the new lithium battery can reach 350 to 400 watt-hours / kg.It is expected that the first generation of all-solid-state batteries with roughly equivalent to the energy of the existing liquid electrolyte lithium batteries will appear in 2025.After 2030, the second generation of full solid state batteries with new positive and negative materials, specific energy to 500 watt-hours / kg, high specific energy lithium-sulfur batteries, metal and air batteries.The recent performance of the sodium ion battery can not meet the requirements of high-performance vehicles.It is expected that by 2035, the performance of sodium batteries and potassium batteries will be greatly improved, with a specific energy of about 300 watt-hours / kg.

From the perspective of the sustainable development of the battery industry, lithium batteries are still dominant until 2030.Roughly forecast that the first generation of all-solid-state batteries (after industrialization) accounted for nearly 1% of the market in about 2030.After 2035, the new generation of solid-state batteries and potassium, magnesium, sodium, lithium-sulfur and other batteries will enter the market.By 2050, liquid lithium-ion batteries may be reduced by about 20%.

The whole chain of battery intelligence is a major trend.Now the material synthesis and battery design still mainly use the "trial and error method", which results in the actual production of the battery is difficult to achieve the theoretical specific capacity.Intelligent means can further optimize the design, such as material screening and design based on material genomics and artificial intelligence, and then using the intelligent battery management in the process of intelligent manufacturing and application, and finally intelligent recycling, to realize the whole process of intelligence.This is the central idea of the EU's battery plan for 2030.

Through intelligent design, the gap between the actual battery performance and the theoretical value can be reduced by half, intelligent recycling can make the utilization rate of recycled raw materials close to 100%, and reduce the carbon footprint of the full life cycle by 1 / 2. The potential of technology is huge, and the sustainable development of power batteries is guaranteed.

Ultra-fast charging: it should be mainly used for high-speed power supply

What people are still not satisfied with electric cars is that charging is not as fast as refueling.During the 2021 National Day holiday, many users complained that electric cars have become "electric fathers".In fact, the high-power power battery can be charged as fast as refueling, but it is lower than energy and cannot meet the requirements of long endurance.

Now there are more and more electric cars with long range, equipped with energy power batteries that emphasize high specific energy, so it is not easy to charge quickly.For example, 350 kW ultra-fast charging, 5 minutes charging close to 30 degrees of electricity, but also to solve many problems: the charging rate is too large, the battery can not stand, the charging current is too big, the car can not stand; the charging power is too big, the power grid can not stand.To this end, the battery itself should have a fast charging capacity, that is, a high peak charging ratio; the voltage of the vehicle electrical system should be increased to 800 V to reduce the total charging current in super-high power charging; it is best to discharge the energy storage battery to achieve a high power of 350 kW to reduce the load of the power grid.This makes it for super-fast charging.

One of the most difficult is the power battery potential of fast charging itself.The charging process is the most prone to safety accidents, the main reason is that fast charging caused by internal short circuit.To this end, in addition to the development of lithium-free fast charging technology, but also choose ultra-fast charging range and range.The study shows that under half of the power, 5 minutes is suitable for safety, life and heating, and the gain outweighs the loss.

Ultra-fast charging should be mainly used for highway emergency recharge.For example, in a car with a range of 600 kilometers, 5 minutes is 200 kilometers, which is more scientific and reasonable.In addition, consider the whole climate, such as heating in winter and dissipate heat in summer.So it must be equipped with fast heating, fast cooling.

Where does the super fast charging its energy storage battery based on the energy storage battery discharge come from?There are two ways, one is a direct charging station with energy storage, but the cost is too high; the second is to combine with power change, the trend of rapid power change of commercial vehicles has been very obvious.

In general, the trucks with high attendance, heavy load and short-distance transportation are the most popular, while the mining areas, construction sites, steel plants, ports and so on are what is to be carried out first, and they will be gradually expanded to cities and expressways in the future.

We believe that the combination of fast charging and fast power change, truck fast change, car fast charging, power replacement standby battery to the car fast charge, will be a complementary advantages of resource sharing solution.Moreover, the use habit, frequency and location of this fast charging and fast changing station are very close to the fuel car refueling.In addition, energy enterprises are very suitable for building fast charging and fast changing coupling stations in gas stations, which is a relatively reasonable business model and transformation direction for them, and has great prospects.

Car network interaction: it is expected to form an "electric vehicle stock market" in the future

According to statistics, 75% of the electricity of household electric cars is obtained through slow charging.With the number of electric vehicles increasing rapidly, slow charging will bring great pressure to the power load, and the era of disorderly charging is coming to an end.In the future, it will enter the orderly charging stage, and the backstage charging will be adjusted to the low range of power load through the electricity price mechanism. At present, there is a demonstration in Shenzhen.The information network for managing charging will intelligently dispatch the charging energy of the power grid, and the prototype of the energy Internet gradually appears.

One further is the two-way development: electric vehicle batteries both charge and discharge.For example, electric cars are connected to a building to form an energy system that can power a building.Wind power and photovoltaic power generation fluctuate greatly, which can be stored first when they are sufficient, and then released when power is short. In this way, the role of energy storage is great, the electricity price difference will be bigger and bigger, and the value of electric vehicles as energy storage devices will appear.

In 2025, the battery capacity of battery cars will exceed 2 billion kilowatt-hours. Based on the number of 300 million electric vehicles in 2040, each car is 65 kilowatt-hours, totaling about 20 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, which is the total electricity that China needs in a day.This huge energy storage system will generate a huge potential for carbon emission reduction.Preliminary estimates that its carbon reduction potential is 1 billion to 2 billion tons, a staggering amount.In short, the potential of electric vehicle energy storage is great, and it will be a huge blue ocean market.

Some people may ask that electric vehicles are scattered, mobile, randomly used, and charging devices are not everywhere. How is this ideal result achieved?

First, we need to speed up the popularization of slow-charging facilities.The ideal state is for the car to be connected to the grid, so that the interactive function of energy storage and grid.For example, using the car two-way charger, the car only needs an intelligent socket to solve the settlement problem.From a technical point of view, as long as there are standards and norms, safety is guaranteed, and the key is how to implement it.

Before 2025, it is mainly orderly charging. Interaction with buildings and micro-networks will be developed from 2025 to 2030, and interaction with the distribution network after 2030.From the perspective of system classification, the bottom level is the charging and discharge hardware facilities, the middle level is a large number of electric vehicle energy storage and micro-network aggregators, and the upper level is the scheduling and management platform of the government intervention.

The power system with renewable energy as the main body will be mainly distributed and market-oriented.Charging and discharge of electric vehicles will be a market. Charging and discharge is like stock trading, when the electricity price is low and the electricity price is high. Automatic adjustment and balance of volatile wind power and photovoltaic renewable energy can be realized through economic incentives.For individuals, mobile APP can be done, which is a vision of green and smart future in the city.