What kind of impact will the reduction of new energy subsidies have on the industry?

Looking back on 2021, the ongoing epidemic, rising raw material prices, and chip shortages have made the global auto industry difficult, but it will be a historic year for new energy and smart vehicles.

In the field of new energy, the world's leading new energy car companies broke the trillion-dollar market value for the first time, and the top battery companies broke the trillion RMB market value. The sales of new energy vehicles of a single car company approached the scale of one million, and the sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 300 for the first time. 10,000 vehicles, an increase of 170%, private users accounted for more than 80%, and the market penetration rate exceeded 10% for the first time.

In terms of intelligent connectivity, the market penetration rate of new L2 passenger cars in my country has reached 20%, more than 5 million vehicles are equipped with 5G and LTE-V2X and other connected terminals, the national open road test mileage exceeds 5,000 kilometers, and the total mileage of safe road tests More than 10 million kilometers, high-level intelligent networked vehicles have achieved normalized manned and loaded tests on urban roads in many places across the country.

At the opening ceremony, Wang Xia, president of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) Automobile Industry Branch and president of the China Chamber of International Commerce Automobile Industry Chamber of Commerce, said that since the key technologies of electric vehicles were included in the national "Eighth Five-Year Plan", the development of new energy vehicles in China has gone through a lot. 30 years. China's new energy and intelligent networked vehicles have passed the initial stage of development, and are entering a new development stage of higher quality in an all-round way, showing a new development trend.

First, policy will go the other way. The sign of the new stage of development is the complete shift from policy-driven to market-driven. The biggest difference between this high growth and the last one is the market-driven result. In 2022, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by another 30%. The minimum subsidy for each vehicle is less than 5,000 RMB, and the maximum is more than 12,000 RMB. There will be no subsidies from next year. Of course, policies will not be absent from now on, but will shift from encouraging policies to management policies. The decomposition and implementation of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals will have a profound impact on the future development of new energy vehicles.

Secondly, the real competition has just begun, and it will be more and more difficult to lead. Traditional auto giants have begun to invest huge amounts of money in new energy vehicles. Larger Internet and technology company giants have begun to enter the market to build cars. Policy subsidies are about to disappear, and the competition will only intensify. Those brands that have grown up on subsidies and are uncompetitive will accelerate their exit. If we want to continue to lead the market, we can only make technological innovation and work hard on the underlying technology and original innovation. 1000 kilometers of battery life, skateboard chassis, fuel cells, etc., more technical problems are waiting for everyone to overcome.

Finally, the track is long enough, and there is the next tipping point. In the initial stage, some business models have gone through the concept and exploration stage, and began to land from the air, such as the integrated mode of light storage and charging, battery replacement mode, battery bank, etc. Once these new models are transferred to stable commercial operations, they will surely generate a new round of strong push for new energy vehicles. When innovative technologies make new energy vehicles absolutely superior to fuel vehicles in terms of performance and cost, it is the arrival of the next critical point, which will usher in a larger and more lasting development of new energy vehicles. Technological innovation is always the core of new energy smart vehicles, and only technological innovation is the eternal outlet.