What are the changes in the new energy vehicle industry chain in the future?

In September 2020, the "2035 New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" announced by the State Council made a top-level plan and design for the development of the next 15 years, including: overall deployment, five measures, five special columns, and five safeguard measures.

New energy vehicles are still in a period of rapid growth. The outside world defines last year as the first year of development of new energy vehicles. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 10%, and the passenger car field has exceeded 15%. From the perspective of the overall situation, intelligent, networked and humanized functional design will become the key to the differentiated competition of new energy vehicle products. In electrification, the next main point of competition lies in intelligence and networking, including various differentiated products suitable for consumer consumption. Taking into account the industrial development, especially the changes in consumption structure, we predict that the market size of new energy vehicles in 2025 and 2030 may reach 7 million and 14 million, and the market share will reach 26% and 47%, which is relatively In the base scenario, the other one is relatively optimistic. The main reason is that the development of new energy vehicles will be further accelerated under the “dual carbon” goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

In terms of the power battery industry chain, power batteries are currently mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta represented by Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the Bohai Rim region represented by Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong. Some central cities have experienced rapid industrial growth in recent years, especially in carbon Under the neutralization target, the battery emits the highest carbon dioxide during the production process. For example, many power sources in the southwestern region are hydropower, which belongs to green energy. The layout in this region will also become the basic direction of the next power battery enterprise layout.

Ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are still the mainstream technology routes, and solid-state batteries are likely to be commercialized in large quantities between 2025 and 2030.

Electric drive system, at present, motor and electronic control have formed the industrial layout of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, there are JJE Motor, BAIC New Energy, and UAES; in the Yangtze River Delta region, there are Shanghai Pneumatic, HASCO, Magna, and Suzhou Lvkon; in the Pearl River Delta region, there are BYD, Inovance Technology, and Broad-Ocean. In line with the 2035 new energy plan.

Judging from the market share of motors and electronic controls among the top ten companies, Tesla, BYD, and Founder Motor account for 40%, and the market concentration is getting higher and higher. There is a characteristic that Hongguang MINI has successfully boosted the number and production capacity of Shuangling Motors, including Sungrow Power, Inball and other domestic independent motor companies. From the perspective of the development trend of motors, high voltage, high integration, high reliability, high power density, high sound quality, and high cost performance will become the main directions in the future.