The battle between lithium battery and hydrogen energy routes: Winner takes all in electricity vs single-point breakthrough in hydrogen energy?

　　As an important carrier of secondary energy, the choice between electricity and hydrogen energy seems to have been decided for a long time. However, with the emergence of new concepts in energy organizations such as the energy Internet, new energy vehicles, and blockchain, especially Zhang Guobao, the former director of the National Energy Administration, some time ago, his views on the "technical route" have made people rethink this concept. A far-reaching issue. Whether it will be a winner-take-all scenario for electricity and a continued bullish trend, or a single-point breakthrough and long-term explosion for hydrogen energy, there are still variables.

　　The gap of a century

　　The invention and application of electricity began in the 1870s, setting off the second wave of industrialization. The large-scale power systems that have emerged since the 20th century are one of the most important achievements in the process of human modernization.

　　At present, electricity accounts for about 40% of energy consumption in the industrial sector, about 50% in the construction sector, and about 5% in the transportation sector. It is one of the main energy sources, and the electric energy ratio (the proportion of primary energy used for power generation) is close to 40% on average. , the global power generation has exceeded 23 trillion kilowatt-hours, and the total length of transmission lines exceeds one million kilometers, making it a well-deserved major energy carrier.

　　Considering the lock-in effect and life cycle of energy infrastructure, it will be almost impossible to fundamentally shake the main load status of electricity for quite some time.

　　The focus on hydrogen energy can be traced back to the oil energy crisis in the 1970s. The main source of hydrogen energy is water, which is the most abundant resource on the earth. It can be used for road, special, navigation, aerospace and other mobile source power, and can also be used as In distributed situations, solid, liquid and gaseous states can be stored. It was once considered to be the best alternative transportation energy in the short term and also a long-term strategic energy.

　　The United States launched a hydrogen energy plan in 2003. Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, Italy, the United Kingdom, Iceland, Norway, Germany, France, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and India have all participated in international cooperation in the hydrogen economy. However, Then it died down.

　　Currently, there are only a hundred hydrogen refueling stations in operation around the world, the hydrogen energy output is about 100 million cubic meters per day, and the transmission pipeline is only about 3,000 kilometers. The development of hydrogen energy can currently only be regarded as a reserve technology route. The only breakthrough may be in the transportation sector, which still accounts for a relatively low proportion of electricity consumption.

　　Cost is a short-term constraint

　　With the global response to climate change, energy conservation and emission reduction, development transformation and other changes in recent years, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption has continued to increase, and the use of these energy sources is generally power generation, which has also promoted the improvement of the overall electrification level across the entire economy. .

　　If the evolution trend of the energy structure of the transportation sector could not be seen in the past ten years, now we can see the beginning of electrification, intelligence, and informatization. In railway transportation, electric traction has replaced internal combustion traction as the dominant mode. China, Russia, and Germany , Japan, France and other countries, the proportion of electrified railway mileage has exceeded 50%.

　　Secondly, in terms of new energy vehicle sales, pure electric models account for more than 70% of sales, and hybrid models account for about 30%. Under the influence of subsidies and policy preferences, electric vehicles stand out and are gradually eroding the incremental market of traditional gasoline and diesel internal combustion vehicles.

　　However, in recent years, Japan has frequently announced the results of hydrogen vehicles. It can fill up a high-pressure hydrogen storage tank in three minutes and achieve a cruising range of more than 700 kilometers. It can also enter mass production, which is quite attractive.

　　However, the current process routes for hydrogen production mainly include natural gas steam reforming, petroleum steam reforming, methanol cracking, liquid ammonia cracking, water electrolysis, coal gasification, etc. The market price of hydrogen energy is about US$3-6/kg, and the cost per hundred kilometers is about It costs 5-10 US dollars, about 3-10 times that of electric cars.

　　The cost of hydrogen pipelines is about US$650,000-2.25 million/km (diameter length 1-4 meters), the cost of natural gas pipelines is about US$300,000-1.3 million/km, and the cost of power grids is about US$20-450 depending on the transmission voltage and circuit. Ten thousand US dollars/km, the average transmission cost of 800-1100 UHV is only 2-4 cents/1,000 km.

　　Even considering infrastructure construction such as charging stations and hydrogenation stations, electricity is still superior to hydrogen energy in the transportation sector from a cost perspective. To achieve scale expansion, hydrogen energy still needs major breakthroughs from technology to systems.

　　Who holds the truth?

　　The debate over the technical route of hydrogen energy has attracted the most attention of the Chinese people mainly in neighboring Japan. The Japanese government is joining forces with several of its largest domestic manufacturing companies to strive to create a so-called "hydrogen energy society" and the eye-catching "2020 Hydrogen Energy Society". Olympics", the soon-to-be-launched "future hydrogen cars" and "hydrogen homes", subsidies for hydrogen energy are also much higher than for electric vehicles.

　　However, the source of hydrogen energy is still a problem. The "nuclear energy + seawater" and "Australian coal import" hydrogen production routes are not favored by people. The promotion of technology is also related to the scale of application. Japanese car companies have a high market share in the world and have a foundation for promoting the development of hydrogen vehicles. However, they also face the same infrastructure and cost challenges as electric vehicles. Reasonable construction Cost and innovative business models are still prerequisites.

　　The biggest advantage of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is that their endurance is completely comparable to that of fuel vehicles. However, judging from the current comparison of market forces, it is difficult to say that there will not be a winner-take-all situation, and those who pay a heavy price may be the minority route.

　　The biggest advantage of electricity is that it can be freely interconnected and has its own information attributes, which are homogeneous with digital. This is probably unmatched by hydrogen energy. But in fields such as distributed and energy storage, hydrogen fuel cells can also work hand in hand with electricity to form a new energy network.

　　Brandenburg, Germany, recently built the world's first hybrid energy power station that uses hydrogen energy as a power storage intermediary. This technology can efficiently convert local excess wind and solar energy into hydrogen energy and use existing natural gas facilities for long-term Store it and convert it back into electricity when needed.

　　The attempt to "turn electricity into hydrogen" may provide a new idea for relieving the bottleneck of long-term power storage and long-distance transmission. Only by breaking through the major problem of energy storage can a new era of renewable electricity be possible as soon as possible. Hydrogen energy, like controllable nuclear fusion technology, is a dream for mankind.

　　The main carrier battle may not be too important. It is too early to make a longer-term judgment. What is really important is that they form a joint force in the energy revolution and jointly drive a better world.

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