Lithium iron phosphate passenger cars will account for 70% in 2022

In November, the total power battery output was 28.2 GWh, lithium iron phosphate battery output was 17.8 GWh, accounting for 63.0%; ternary battery output was 10.4 GWh, accounting for 36.8%. Lithium iron phosphate and ternary year-on-year growth rate of 229.2% vs 42.6%, respectively.

After analyzing the market this month, I will focus on the next step, the choice of different packaging routes of lithium iron phosphate technology for each company.

2021 is a good and bad year for the battery industry.

2021 January-November total production of 188.1GWh, a cumulative increase of 175.5% year-on-year, such a high growth rate on the upstream raw materials produced a pull, making the price of the product rose rapidly. This fact caused the shortage and price increase of upstream raw materials, and doomed small battery companies to need a lot of capital to buy upstream materials next year and face difficulties in dealing with downstream prices.

Figure 1 MMR Securities for 2007-2021YTD, review the two rounds of lithium product prices of large cycles ($ / ton)

Overall power battery production, installed capacity

Power battery production in November totaled 28.2GWh, up 121.8% year-on-year and 12.4% YoY; power battery installed volume was 20.8GWh, up 96.2% YoY and 35.1% YoY.

From the overall power production climb, we can clearly see the power battery industry is on fire.

Fig. 2 Total development of the power battery industry in 2020-2021

Here we break down the data by production and installed capacity to see.

28.2 GWh in power battery production, 10.4 GWh of ternary battery production, accounting for 36.8%, up 42.6% year-on-year and 12.9% YoY.

Lithium iron phosphate battery production 17.8GWh, accounting for 63.0%, an increase of 229.2% year-on-year and 12.0% YoY.

Power battery installed 20.8GWh, ternary batteries installed 9.2GWh, up 57.7% year-on-year, up 32.5% YoY; lithium iron phosphate batteries installed 11.6GWh, up 145.3% YoY, up 37.2% YoY.

From these data systematically, lithium iron phosphate exports this part is relatively small, mainly with the Tesla vehicle exports, so from this data can reflect that the subsequent 2022 ternary installed capacity is to the top, the rapid growth in demand stage production and no rapid growth trend; and lithium iron phosphate data is still continuing to rise.

This difference can prospectively react to the forecast of the installed capacity in the following months.

Fig. 3 Ternary and lithium iron production and installed capacity in November

If we look at the monthly data, it is more reflective of this lithium iron phosphate demand blowout, if we take the Tesla export part of the disturbance (exports of about 15-40,000 units, 60kWh, fluctuations of about 900MWh-2.4GWh), the actual installed base of lithium iron phosphate is also rising rapidly.

Fig. 4 The installed volume of lithium iron phosphate and ternary production from January to November 2021

From the overall data, the cumulative power battery production from January to November is 188.1GWh, with a cumulative increase of 175.5% year-on-year.

Ternary battery production accumulated 82.4GWh, accounting for 43.8%, with a cumulative increase of 106.1% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate battery production accumulated 105.3GWh, accounting for 56.0%, with a cumulative increase of 275.7% year-on-year.

From January to November, the total installed capacity of power batteries was 128.3GWh, up 153.1% year-on-year. Ternary batteries installed volume accumulated 63.3GWh, accounting for 49.3%, up 92.5% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate batteries installed volume accumulated 64.8GWh, accounting for 50.5%, up 270.3% year-on-year.

From here, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in production is a priority response to market changes. From this aspect, the share of lithium iron in 2022 can make the overall share of passenger cars to 70%, or even towards 80%.