Time:2024.12.06Browse:0
The spring of energy storage has arrived, but the summer of booming industry development is far from coming, and disruptive innovations and breakthroughs are yet to be made in technology. It is expected that electrochemical energy storage technology will undergo disruptive development in the next decade.
Although I have been engaged in energy storage research for many years, I am still a newcomer to the energy storage industry, because it was not until last year that China's energy storage industry really started to develop. Whether it is technology development or industrial application, there are still many things that I need to learn and think about in the future.
2017 is the first year of energy storage in China. The issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of Energy Storage Technology and Industry" marks the arrival of the spring of energy storage. Energy storage projects, especially battery energy storage projects, are springing up like mushrooms after rain in the fields of power generation, grid side, user side, microgrid, communication energy storage, emergency power supply, etc. The spring of China's energy storage has arrived.
“Renewable energy + energy storage” is an inevitable choice
Looking back on the past ten years, the initial development of China's energy storage industry is closely related to the rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic and wind power generation and the rapid development of new energy.
In 2017, China's photovoltaic and wind power generation accounted for 8.0%, becoming the third largest source of electricity after coal power (64.5%) and hydropower (18.6%). The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 130GW, and wind power generation The cumulative grid-connected installed capacity is 164GW. Ten years ago, photovoltaic and wind power together accounted for less than 0.8%. In the past ten years, the cost per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power generation and wind power generation have also dropped by 90% and 70% respectively, and are close to the level of grid parity.
The intermittent and variability of renewable energy power generation, as well as the increasing penetration rate, pose severe challenges to the normal operation and dispatch of the existing power grid system. In recent years, in order to utilize as much renewable energy as possible and improve the reliability and efficiency of power grid operations, various energy storage technology research and engineering demonstration projects have developed rapidly.
By the end of 2017, a total of 175.7GW of energy storage projects had been put into operation around the world, and 32.8GW of energy storage projects had been put into operation in China. The vast majority (>95%) of them were pumped hydro energy storage projects, but electrochemical energy storage has become the most developed The fastest and most watched energy storage technology direction. Although the current cost of energy storage is still high, everyone has reached a consensus: "Renewable energy + energy storage" is an inevitable choice for the development of new energy.
In the past ten years, the initial development of China's energy storage industry is inseparable from the diligent work of a large number of people in the energy storage industry: reducing energy storage costs through technological progress, demonstrating the advantages of energy storage through demonstration applications, identifying problems and accumulating experience, and The calls and reports from industry associations and media have promoted information communication and exchange between industry enterprises and government departments. Through various efforts, the energy storage industry has gradually become familiar and accepted by everyone, and has recently begun to develop and blossom everywhere.
"Clean energy + energy storage + intelligence" is the development direction of the energy Internet. The future development of clean energy and smart energy is inseparable from energy storage.
The country has put forward the goal of making onshore wind power grid parity on the power generation side and photovoltaic power generation parity on the user side by 2020. On the other hand, my country's energy structure is also facing three outstanding problems that need to be solved urgently: the haze problem in North and Northeast China, the peak load power shortage problem in some parts of the southeast, and the abandonment of wind and light in the northwest region.
Energy storage can make a difference in solving the above problems. In the next decade, energy storage will gradually transition from the initial stage to the rapid development stage. The specific performance is as follows:
First, pumped storage power stations with the main purpose of peak shaving and valley filling will be fully constructed;
Second, the total scale of electrochemical energy storage projects on the grid side is likely to reach 10~30GW;
Third, the new energy power generation side will carry out the construction of some key energy storage demonstration projects;
Fourth, heat storage projects that support clean energy heating will have important development in the northern region;
Fifth, distributed energy storage projects combined with comprehensive energy services will develop rapidly in the southeast region.
Here, I also call on relevant national departments to make long-term plans based on the characteristics of our country’s energy structure, guide the development of high-energy-consuming, low-pollution manufacturing industries and data industries in areas rich in primary energy, and try to balance the economic gaps in various regions from a strategic direction. This To some extent, it will also alleviate the resource pressure faced by the development of the energy storage industry.
The technology key to thriving
The spring of energy storage has arrived, but the summer of booming industry development is far from coming. Various types of energy storage technologies have been put into commercial or demonstration applications, demonstrating the advantages of energy storage in applications, but also gradually exposing some problems, especially electrochemical energy storage technology. There is still a considerable gap between the development goals of "low cost, long life, high safety, and easy recycling" and requires disruptive innovation and breakthroughs in technology.
Existing lithium batteries for energy storage are gradually developed from micro-small batteries such as mobile phone batteries. In addition to making the battery volume larger, it has not yet departed from the core design idea of the adhesively coated thin-film electrode structure of small batteries, which brings great challenges to large-scale storage. The consistent design of viable lithium batteries poses fundamental problems.
In addition, battery manufacturing costs remain high, there are potential safety hazards in use, and recycling of batteries after they are scrapped is also very difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to completely break away from the original small battery design ideas and develop disruptive large-scale energy storage battery structural technologies, including ultra-thick slurry electrode technology suitable for capacity-type energy storage and ultra-high-voltage structural technology for power-type energy storage. On this basis, we will innovate and develop low-cost manufacturing technology, safe and life-extending repair technology, and green and environmentally friendly recycling technology to meet the needs of different energy storage application scenarios and support the innovative and breakthrough development of the energy storage industry.
Therefore, it is expected that electrochemical energy storage technology will undergo disruptive development in the next decade. The safety issues and lifespan issues of existing electrochemical energy storage demonstration projects under actual working conditions will gradually emerge, and some of the technical routes will be forced to be abandoned. Some electrochemical energy storage technologies will be newly designed and developed based on the needs of energy storage application scenarios. and comprehensive energy storage technology will be demonstrated, promoted and commercially applied.
For the energy storage industry, which energy storage companies will stand out in the next decade? I think the following four types of companies deserve attention:
An export supplier of energy storage products or production equipment with reliable technology and an international perspective;
An energy storage product supplier with unique technical routes and obvious competitive advantages in cost;
An energy storage operation and maintenance service provider that masters core application technologies and cooperates with insurance companies to provide energy storage leasing services;
An energy storage system company affiliated to the power grid company.
In terms of policy formulation, it is necessary to learn from the development experience of my country's photovoltaic industry and new energy automobile industry, as well as the formulation of international energy storage industry policies during the same period, to promote the development of my country's energy storage industry relatively steadily. It is expected that the energy storage policy mechanism can be expressed far-sightedly within the framework of the power system reform, combined with the characteristics of the local energy structure, adapted to local conditions, and comprehensively promoted.
Energy storage has a long way to go from promoting the consumption of renewable energy to reducing the cost of renewable energy utilization.
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