It is true that various industries will start reshuffling work at different time points. Those who remain unchanged and do not seek innovation are easily eliminated. On the contrary, those who are brave in innovation and focus on the future will make their own abilities stronger. The result is very simple, the former is washed away, and the latter will take the former's place.

　　In the 1970s, the concept of lithium-ion batteries was first proposed and began to be studied. Today, ternary lithium batteries have become the core element of automobile electrification.

　　However, facing the coming era of power battery reshuffle, it is full of confidence but seems worried. Because of technology, the Matthew effect is never recognized.

　　As far as the current new energy vehicle market is concerned, we are most familiar with ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. It can be said that these two power batteries have supported the current stage of global electrification development.

　　However, as everyone pays more and more attention to issues such as cruising range, charging time, and safety, the "old guys" are beginning to be unable to do what they want. While people are complaining, complaining, and being patient, they are looking forward to the early emergence of a battery type that combines high energy density, high safety, high-efficiency charging, and low cost.

　　The "old guy" is under attack from both sides, and "new forces" such as fuel cells and solid-state batteries are waiting for opportunities. Models powered by fuel cells have appeared on the market a few years ago. So, when the era of great reshuffle comes, who will be eliminated, who will continue to survive, and who will stand out?

　　Lithium batteries, the most mainstream and most dangerous

　　To be precise, it should be called "ternary lithium-ion battery" (hereinafter referred to as ternary lithium battery). Sony released the first commercial lithium-ion battery in 1991, revolutionizing the development of consumer electronics. Nowadays, lithium-ion batteries are absolutely mainstream, and the 3C market has always relied on its existence. Relatively speaking, the application of new energy vehicles was later.

　　But as mentioned above, if you don’t make progress, the wave of innovation will sooner or later hit you on the beach of backwardness. Early last year, "Nature", the world's oldest and most prestigious scientific magazine, published an article titled "Only 10 years until the lithium-ion battery revolution." This article pointed out that the performance and performance of lithium-ion batteries The pace of price evolution is slowing down.

　　Looking into the reasons, there are only two reasons:

　　First, technical bottlenecks. A battery is essentially a device that converts stored chemical energy into electrical energy. Therefore, there is a limit to the amount of electricity that can be stored in a crystal structure. Take mobile phones as an example. With the continuous improvement of hardware levels, the technology and performance of mobile phones have developed by leaps and bounds, but the upgrade of supporting lithium batteries is still faltering.

　　Compared with 20 years ago, the energy stored in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries has increased several times. It may seem like a rapid improvement, but in fact it is far from enough, especially compared with the update speed of high-tech industries such as chips and software. It can be said that lithium batteries have gradually moved from being in demand, irreplaceable, and mainstream to being "replaced."

　　After being applied to new energy vehicles, this "slowness" becomes even more prominent. It is impossible for car companies to put a large number of ternary lithium batteries in a car for a simple reason - weight. With the simultaneous increase in vehicle weight, the upward curve of actual endurance capacity will eventually become flat. In addition, charging facilities have not yet reached a perfect level. The development of ternary lithium batteries in the field of power batteries is bound to be the first to reach a decision point.

　　Second, materials. The most important factor that determines the performance of ternary lithium batteries is the materials of the battery poles, especially the cathode material. Nickel, cobalt, and manganese, these three metal elements dominate almost everything. Among them, the greatest significance of the nickel element is to increase the energy density; the role of cobalt is to stabilize the layered structure of the material and improve the cycle and rate performance of the material.

　　Indispensability leads to no choice. As a result, the prices of nickel and cobalt continued to surge in 2017, and the market supply exceeded demand. Although there was a decline in the second half of 2018, the irreplaceability in the short term still prompted prices to rebound. Many cathode material companies and lithium battery companies have stated that they must find alternatives due to cost reasons.

　　The emergence of "NCM811 (nickel: cobalt: manganese = 8:1:1))" allows ternary lithium batteries to effectively respond to doubts. In principle, compared with the mature "532" and "622", the proportion of nickel in 811 has been further improved. While the energy density increases, the cost decreases. With further development in the future, cobalt-free lithium batteries are gradually emerging.

　　But everything has two sides, and NCM811 is not impeccable. More than one expert has pointed out that the higher the nickel ratio, the worse the thermal stability of the entire cathode material. High-temperature instability and low-temperature performance are inherently shortcomings of ternary lithium batteries. As a result, safety has become an obstacle that must be overcome first.

　　Therefore, many power battery companies focus on safety. Jeffrey Yambrick, vice president of global marketing of Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd., is very optimistic about NCM811, but also admits that stability is an issue that must be paid attention to: "The issue of concern for NCM811 We have optimized how to ensure stability at high temperatures. The R&D team of Honeycomb Energy has improved the cathode material so that the cathode material can work normally at minus 20-60 degrees Celsius, and the high temperature of 140-150 degrees Celsius increases the impedance by 3 Orders of magnitude form an open circuit to ensure the safety of the battery core."

　　Frankly speaking, it is too early to talk about the end of ternary lithium batteries. One day, once there is a breakthrough in materials or the ceiling is broken in energy technology, the technical advantages of ternary lithium batteries will once again be achieved. play.

　　Lithium iron phosphate battery, where to go?

　　Strictly speaking, lithium iron phosphate battery is also a type of lithium battery, which refers to a lithium-ion battery using lithium iron phosphate as the cathode material. Therefore, the most essential difference from ternary lithium-ion batteries lies in the cathode material.

　　Compared with ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have obvious shortcomings - low energy density. This alone seems to be enough to kill them with a brick. But don’t forget that the advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries are also outstanding. The biggest reason why lithium iron phosphate batteries are commonly used in new energy logistics vehicles, buses, and trucks is because of their high stability and low cost.

　　In the short term, lithium iron phosphate batteries still have a stable market in the fields of small urban scooters and commercial vehicles. Coupled with the cancellation of the new energy vehicle policy in 2021, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be even more effective.

　　Although the energy density is not as high as that of lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries themselves have not stopped upgrading. Breaking through 200Wh/kg is not a dream. "There is still a lot of room for further development in lithium iron phosphate batteries. We have not given up on lithium iron phosphate batteries and have continued to invest. I think this is a correct decision. Making lithium iron phosphate batteries will not involve Nickel metal, cobalt metal and other resources, so there is great development." Cai Yi, president of Guoxuan High-tech Engineering Research Institute, is very confident in the development of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

　　In 2017, Waterma's use of lithium iron phosphate materials reached nearly 20,000 tons, occupying nearly 30% of the market share. Although in 2018, Waterma was hit hard by the debt crisis, the demand side became more concentrated, and the supply system changed greatly. However, BYD, Beterui, Peking University Xianxian and other companies still plan to further expand production, which also reflects the expectations of power battery companies for the future of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

　　Is there any potential for new technologies?

　　"The true meaning of energy security is hydrogen energy, and the true meaning of new energy vehicles is fuel cell vehicles." Wang Chaoyun, chairman of Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy, is quite confident in the new energy field in which he is engaged.

　　The reason why Wang Chaoyun regards fuel cells as a real new energy source is not just because he is a relevant practitioner, but more importantly because of his understanding of the nature of this technology. He said that fuel cells only require hydrogen and air. With hydrogen, fuel cells can be used, which can be converted into electricity and heat through electrochemical reactions. In this view, he is right.

　　The pure electric vehicles around us use electric drive. Where does the electricity come from? Referring to data from more than a year ago, thermal power accounted for 73.93% of the country's power generation, and hydropower accounted for 18.26% of the country's power generation. Thermal power generation and hydropower generation, as the names suggest, the former uses the heat energy generated when coal resources are burned and converts it into electrical energy through a power generation device, while the latter converts water energy into electrical energy.

　　Needless to say, everyone can understand that whether it is resource utilization at the source or emissions at a later stage, most electricity cannot be 100% clean and pollution-free, and all uses traditional energy. So where is the term new energy?

　　Back to the topic, as a hydrogen fuel cell, its working principle is the reverse reaction of electrolysis of water, that is, a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen in the air, and then generates electrical energy (charge transfer to form electric current) and water. The reaction place is the fuel cell stack. There are two characteristics of hydrogen fuel cells that require special attention. First, they use the most abundant hydrogen element in the universe, and there will be no problem of resource depletion. Second, during the entire working process, the only waste emitted is "water" , there is no pollution problem.

　　In addition, the hydrogenation efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is very high, and it basically takes about the same time as refueling. In terms of cruising range, several models currently in mass production, such as Honda Clarity and Toyota Mirai, can reach more than 500 kilometers.

　　However, fuel cells also have their problems: one is cost, the other is safety. I won’t go into details on the technical level here, but here are a few vivid examples: The current cost of a hydrogen refueling station is at least about 20 million yuan, not counting the land cost. Since hydrogen fuel cell vehicles require complete hydrogen storage equipment, the cost is also high. According to the Japanese official websites of Toyota and Nissan, the Toyota Mirai is twice as expensive as the Nissan LEAF in Japan.

　　In addition, safety is also a big issue. Hydrogen is unstable, flammable when exposed to air, and is colorless and odorless. If the hydrogen storage bottle in the car cannot be absolutely sealed after a collision, or the hydrogen gas can be discharged in time, in the event of a vehicle collision, the consequences will be disastrous.

　　Wang Chaoyun believes that from the current technical level and performance perspective, China's hydrogen fuel cell technology is almost close to the level of Japan and South Korea. Regarding safety issues, he is very confident in the technical aspect. "Our fuel cell, hydrogen and air can be isolated. Use it when you need it, and isolate it when not in use. If it is isolated, it will not burn or explode."

　　At the end of 2018, Wan Gang, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, chairman of the Central Committee of the Zhi Gong Party, and chairman of the China Association for Science and Technology, wrote that "the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles are driving range and charging time, which cannot yet satisfy the needs of large-volume and wide-ranging long-distance buses, Market demands such as double-shift rentals, urban logistics, and long-distance transportation. To this end, the focus of industrialization should be expanded to fuel cell vehicles in a timely manner." Although there are still problems of this kind, the advantages of fuel cells are too prominent, and it is very important for companies The temptation is too great, and if you give it time, scaling is not completely impossible.

　　Solid-state batteries look further ahead than fuel cells, but from a battery structure perspective, they are closer to current ternary lithium batteries. The most obvious difference between solid-state batteries and the latter is that the electrolyte used is a solid-state structure.

　　Don’t underestimate this change. Fisker once claimed that their solid-state battery has applied for a patent. Its energy density is 2.5 times that of traditional lithium batteries, and it has the ability to restore 160 kilometers of endurance in 9 minutes. Compared with ternary lithium batteries, solid-state batteries have the characteristics of high energy density and high stability, but they are shortcomings in terms of conductivity.

　　At present, many vehicle companies and power battery companies are developing solid-state batteries, including Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Bosch, Hitachi, Dyson, etc. Domestic power battery companies also have certain relevant technical reserves, among which CATL has already Obtained many patents for solid electrolyte diaphragms, lithium-ion batteries, and solid electrolyte materials for lithium-ion batteries.

　　At present, the research and development of solid-state batteries is still in the technical reserve stage, and there is still a long way to go before large-scale mass production. "Currently, solid-state batteries are particularly hot. Judging from the industry's judgment, it will take at least 3-5 years for them to be able to successfully demonstrate operation in new energy vehicles with the same slightly higher energy." Anhui Levi Power Sun Xiaodong, chairman of the battery, gave a timetable for implementation in his mind.

　　The significance of solid-state batteries is not to replace them in the short term, but to focus on the future. Whether it is technical features or acceptance, solid-state batteries are a perfect option in the eyes of many people. Although this perfect existence is still far from final scale, it may be much easier to start with the "transition" technology of semi-solid flow batteries.

　　Generally speaking, a certain field will not allow only a single technology to exist. It is more practical for multiple technologies to complement each other. Lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries are making every effort to break through bottlenecks and focus on the commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle markets respectively; fuel cells and solid-state batteries are laying out their future plans to provide technical direction support for the first two. The point of shuffling is not who to wash away, but who to keep in the end.

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