Recently, the Ministry of Transport issued a formal notice that by the end of 2020, all buses in key regional municipalities, provincial capital cities, and built-up areas of cities under independent planning will be replaced by new energy vehicles.

　　According to the above goals, buses will be fully electrified in the future, and a large number of traditional fuel buses will be eliminated. It is expected that the market capacity of new new energy buses will exceed one million. This is undoubtedly a great benefit for the new energy bus industry. But as of now, with less than two years left, can the goal of fully electrifying buses be achieved? Can the new energy bus market enter the fast lane in the future?

　　Recently, reporters from China Automotive News interviewed industry experts and business leaders on relevant issues to understand the opportunities and challenges faced by the current new energy bus market.

　　■"It's not that easy to achieve the goal"

　　"It is not that simple to achieve the goal of fully electrifying buses." During the interview, industry insiders said one after another.

　　Among them, Wang Jian, a public transportation scholar at Chongqing Jiaotong University, pointed out that from the perspective of the number of new energy buses in various places, except for developed cities such as Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, which have a high proportion of new energy buses, the promotion effect in other cities has been insufficient. Too ideal. Under this circumstance, it is a relatively big challenge to achieve full electrification of buses in key areas by 2020.

　　"This goal is relatively difficult to achieve for some central and western cities." Li Dusheng, director of the Zhongtong Bus Brand Department, said that the challenge mainly lies in the supporting infrastructure such as charging piles. "While the number of new energy buses continues to increase, , If you want to achieve good operating results, you must have charging pile equipment to support it." However, he pointed out that building charging piles requires occupying a large area of land, but now urban land is at a premium, and land approval can be said to be difficult. The inability to effectively follow up the construction of charging piles has made many public transportation companies shy away from new energy vehicles.

　　In addition, Li Dusheng also emphasized that while completing the replacement of fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles, we must also focus on considering the destination of the eliminated fuel vehicles. "It is understood that most bus companies across the country purchased fuel buses around 2015, and the procurement quantities were very large. If all are replaced with new energy buses in 2020, how to deal with these fuel buses is also a thorny issue. ." he said.

　　"Whether the goal can be achieved ultimately depends on whether users accept and trust new energy vehicles." Cao Guangping, an independent researcher in the new energy vehicle industry, said that the average bus route length generally does not exceed 50 kilometers, and the driving range of any brand of new energy buses is All are capable of operational work. However, many bus companies still do not trust new energy vehicles when choosing vehicles, which makes the promotion of new energy buses encounter great obstacles. "In fact, users' concerns still lie in the vehicle itself: Is the technical level acceptable? Is the product quality excellent? Can the battery life meet the requirements? To eliminate these concerns, car companies must continuously improve their technological innovation, product quality and after-sales service capabilities. , at the same time, the electrification of public transportation also needs to return to the social attributes of the product itself, and think about what kind of products can be truly welcomed by users. Only in this way can the goal of fully electrifying buses be achieved," he said.

　　■Technical routes should be diversified

　　According to people in the bus industry, rather than stipulating the purchase quantity of new energy buses, it is better to focus on the energy saving and emission reduction effects of the vehicles.

　　"The purpose of developing public transportation in China is to facilitate people's travel and provide them with a better riding experience while achieving energy conservation and emission reduction goals. However, it should be noted that electrification of buses is not the only way to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction." Wang Jian believes that the formulation of this policy deviates from the vision of energy conservation and emission reduction in public transportation. "If the goal is energy conservation and emission reduction, emission standards should be used to regulate the market, allowing products with different technical routes to compete freely and select the best. Respect technology Laws and market laws are the more reasonable methods. In addition, China has a vast territory, and the geographical environment and economic level of each region are different, so public transportation should be developed according to local conditions."

　　In addition, Wang Jian also pointed out that there are many technical routes for new energy buses, but they are currently restricted by subsidy policies, which to a certain extent affects the normal and reasonable installation and layout of technical routes. "Today, new energy buses mainly include pure electric, hybrid, fuel cell and other technical routes. In order to cater to subsidy policies, bus companies are relatively passive when adjusting technical routes, which is extremely detrimental to product technological innovation." He said At this time, there is another wave of policy promotion in the field of public transportation, which will definitely attract more capital to flock in. At this time, it is very easy to have problems such as product quality being substandard and technical level not up to standard.

　　"my country's new energy bus industry should coexist with multiple technical routes, and the right to choose product technical routes should be returned to enterprises and the market. In addition, the public transportation field relies heavily on state subsidies. With government support, it should be even more important While growing in scale, we will strive to achieve high-quality development and achieve continuous product innovation and refined production." Cao Guangping said.

　　Regarding the selection of technical routes for new energy buses, Cao Guangping reminded: “For technical routes that cannot meet the economic and social benefits for the time being, it is recommended to do more research in the laboratory, and remember not to try it easily in the field of public transportation. Receive state subsidies. Products must be responsible for the effects of use, the safety of the people, and the state’s investment.”

　　In Wang Jian’s view, technical routes need to be selected based on actual conditions. For example, trolleybuses, fuel cell buses, and hybrid buses should all be considered.

　　■New energy bus market has promising future

　　If progress is carried out according to the timetable set by the Ministry of Transport, the new energy bus market will release a large amount of demand.

　　"Now all bus companies are gearing up and actively preparing to win more orders." Li Dusheng said, "In 2017, there were about 650,000 buses nationwide, including 270,000 new energy buses. The replacement rate of ownership reached 35.9%. Overall, the market potential is still huge, and every company has the opportunity to take a chance. And this release of demand will bring great help to the new energy bus market. "

　　"In 2018, the cumulative sales of new energy buses over 6 meters in my country were 91,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Among the top ten new energy bus companies, only 4 companies showed an upward trend." Liu Wei (pseudonym), an expert in the bus industry It said that the gradual reduction of subsidies has led to a slowdown in the growth of the new energy bus market. Moreover, compared with passenger cars, the amount of subsidies for new energy buses is higher, so the impact of the reduction is relatively greater. However, as the government increases its requirements for clean energy in public transportation, the new energy bus market will usher in major benefits.

　　"In the past few years, although the pace of electrification of buses in first- and second-tier cities has been relatively fast, the market space for new energy buses still exists." A regional manager of a certain brand said: "Take the Beijing market as an example. There are 28,000 buses. Only more than half of the cars are now updated; the market in third- and fourth-tier cities has more room for development, and coupled with policy support, the new energy bus market is promising in the future."

　　In Li Dusheng's view, in addition to policy promotion, the economic advantages are also a key factor in the gradual recognition of new energy buses. "Today, more and more bus companies are beginning to pay attention to the full life cycle cost, and this is the advantage of new energy buses." He pointed out that although the purchase cost of new energy buses is higher, compared with traditional fuel buses, Its later maintenance costs and operating costs are lower. Calculated based on the full life cycle cost, new energy buses do have certain advantages. This is why bus companies favor new energy buses.

　　Of particular concern are hydrogen fuel cell buses. At present, hydrogen fuel cell buses have entered the market introduction period, and mainstream bus companies have launched corresponding products.

　　In fact, the rapid development of hydrogen fuel cell buses is closely related to the tilt of subsidy policies. Among the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy policies, only the subsidy standards for fuel cell vehicles remain unchanged. This means that when subsidies for other new energy vehicles are reduced, fuel cells will not be affected. In addition, coupled with the promotion of electrification of buses in key cities, it is expected that hydrogen fuel buses will also usher in a period of rapid development.

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