What kind of battery company is more competitive? What impact will policies have on industry development? What is the degree of overcapacity in the industry? How do companies within the industry differentiate? What is the current profit margin of the company? The power battery industry is an emerging industry and has developed rapidly with an average annual growth rate of 27% since 2014 with policy support. The huge market potential has attracted a large amount of industrial investment. Market participants include traditional lithium battery companies, lead-acid battery companies, upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain, and practitioners from other industries who have entered the power battery industry through mergers and acquisitions. Investment has gradually become overheated. The power battery industry has high requirements for technical level, financial strength and policy grasp. As competition intensifies, the power battery industry has become significantly differentiated. There have been "constantly victorious generals" such as CATL, and there have been former tycoons such as Waltma who "lost Maicheng" due to a broken capital chain. , and at the same time, there are a number of rising stars that are always disturbing the list of the top ten power battery companies. What kind of battery company is more competitive? What impact will policies have on industry development? What is the degree of overcapacity in the industry? How do companies within the industry differentiate? What is the current profit margin of the company? This article summarizes for you the development history of the power battery industry, the industrial chain and status of the power battery industry, the main products of the power battery industry, the structure and production process of power batteries, investment in GWh of power battery units, main performance indicators of power batteries, classification of power batteries and different technologies. The theoretical energy density of the route monomer will allow you to become a power battery "expert" in one article and lay the foundation for studying the above issues. 1. History of Power Battery Development Lithium-ion battery is a secondary battery (rechargeable battery), which mainly relies on the movement of lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes to work. During the charge and discharge process, Li+ is intercalated and deintercalated back and forth between the two electrodes (during charging, Li+ is deintercalated from the positive electrode and embedded in the negative electrode through the electrolyte. The negative electrode is in a lithium-rich state, and the opposite is true during discharge). Compared with traditional lead-acid batteries and nickel-chromium batteries, lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high energy density, long cycle life, good charge and discharge performance, high operating voltage, no memory effect, less pollution and high safety. Lithium batteries are mainly divided into consumer lithium batteries, power batteries and energy storage batteries according to downstream applications. Judging from its development context, lithium-ion batteries were first mainly used in the 3C field, namely consumer lithium batteries. With the development of technology and the continuous improvement of battery performance, lithium-ion batteries are gradually being used to provide power for power tools, electric vehicles and other transportation vehicles, that is, power batteries. Since 2015, the development of the energy storage field has created a new market demand for lithium-ion batteries; however, due to the low technical level requirements for batteries in the energy storage field, the batteries used are mainly those that have been eliminated by power battery companies and have surplus production capacity or are recycled and reused. power battery. From the perspective of market development speed, as the 3C industry market scale growth continued to decline after peaking around 2010, the market gradually became saturated, and the growth rate of consumer lithium-ion batteries continued to decline. Although there was a slight rebound in 2017, the overall growth rate Still less than 10%. Since 2014, the rapid development of the global new energy vehicle industry has caused the shipment volume of the lithium battery industry to grow at an annual rate of 27% in the past four years. As of the end of 2017, power battery shipments reached 62.35GWh, accounting for 42% of lithium-ion battery shipments. In addition, energy storage batteries maintained a growth rate of about 40% from 2015 to 2017, but still accounted for a small proportion of lithium battery shipments. 2. Basic knowledge of power batteries 1. Industrial chain The power battery industry is in the middle reaches of the new energy power industry chain. The upstream mainly includes the industrial chain links such as the raw materials required for the production of batteries (positive electrodes, negative electrodes, electrolytes, separators, packaging, and other parts), as well as the upstream metal material production and mineral resource mining links (lithium, cobalt, and manganese metal compounds). Smelting and cobalt ore, manganese ore, nickel ore, graphite ore mining, etc.). The downstream mainly consists of new energy vehicle companies [divided into passenger cars, commercial vehicles and special vehicles according to vehicle type, and pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles according to power sources]. The main products of power battery companies are battery cells, battery modules and battery packs (see Table 1 for details). In addition, because some battery companies only produce battery cells and outsource the battery pack (PACK) business, some sub-industries specializing in modules and PACK have also been derived between battery companies and car companies. In terms of industrial chain status, since the most upstream resources of battery companies are mainly non-ferrous metal commodities, prices are greatly affected by industry supply and demand and funding. Midstream battery and cathode material companies are only passive recipients of price. In the context of sharp fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt and the rapid expansion of production capacity in the power battery industry, it is difficult for battery companies to completely transmit the increase in costs to downstream (the subsequent study will detail the company's processing fees and profits), and there are relatively Huge cost control pressure. At the same time, under the influence of policies such as the reduction of subsidies and the "30,000 kilometers" policy, the profitability and cash-generating capabilities of downstream car companies have weakened. Operational pressure is gradually transmitted from car companies to battery companies, resulting in continued price cuts for power battery companies' products, rising accounts receivable, and generally weakening profitability and cash-earning performance. Overall, power battery companies have weak bargaining power with upstream and downstream companies, their profit margins and cash flow are more susceptible to the impact of upstream and downstream industries, and their status in the industrial chain is low. 2. Structure and production process of power battery The structure of lithium-ion battery mainly includes positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, separator and casing. The production process can generally be divided into three parts: the front section, the middle section and the back section. Among them, the front-end process includes ingredients, mixing, coating, rolling, slitting, etc.; the middle-end process includes winding/lamination, packaging, drying, liquid injection, sealing, cleaning, etc.; the back-stage process mainly includes formation, volume separation, PACK etc. The front-end production process is the key to determining battery performance. For example, with the same ingredients, sufficient and high-quality vacuum stirring is the basis for high-quality completion of subsequent coating and rolling processes, and is also a prerequisite for improving battery energy density and stability; high-quality rolling increases the nickel content per unit area Improvement can also increase the energy density of the battery. At the same time, high uniformity of coating and rolling will also improve the stability and safety of the battery. Therefore, the front-end equipment for lithium battery production (mixers, coating machines, roller presses, etc.) is the core equipment related to the quality of the entire production line. It has the highest technical content and the highest equipment value (accounting for about 40% of the value of the entire production line~ 50%). The middle-stage equipment (die-cutting machine, winding machine, laminating machine, liquid injection machine, etc.) accounts for about 30% (the price of laminating mode equipment is higher than that of winding mode), and the back-end equipment (forming machine, volumetric testing equipment , process warehousing and logistics automation, etc.) accounting for 20%. At present, front-end equipment still relies heavily on imports, and middle- and back-end equipment can basically achieve import substitution. However, for companies with high equipment integration requirements, the entire production line is still completely dependent on imports. 3. Power battery unit GWh investment Power battery project investment mainly includes civil construction, equipment and installation, working capital, etc. Among them, in terms of land, according to statistics, the general construction of 1GWh production capacity requires about 100 to 150 acres of land. The cost of land purchase varies greatly, but it is generally between 20 and 30 million; the construction project cost is about 66 to 150 million yuan. In terms of production equipment, the value varies greatly depending on whether the equipment is imported, the equipment's technical route and the degree of equipment automation. Generally speaking, the price of foreign advanced production lines is significantly higher than the price of domestic production lines (the price range of domestic equipment is 36,000 to 50,000 yuan, and the price of imported equipment is 70,000 to 100,000 yuan); the price of integrated production lines is significantly higher than that of assembly production lines; the price of soft package lamination technology production lines The price is significantly higher than the hard-packed winding production line. In addition, working capital and other taxes and fees are approximately 170 to 190 million yuan. Overall, domestic mainstream power battery manufacturers invest approximately 650 to 900 million yuan per GWh. 4. Main performance indicators of battery performance The core technical indicators of power batteries include energy, energy density, charge and discharge rate, cycle life, safety, consistency, reliability and many other indicators. Among them, when the vehicle weight is given and the vehicle is driven under normal working conditions, the battery energy mainly determines the cruising range of the new energy vehicle. Battery energy (Wh) is equal to energy density (Wh/L) times battery volume (L), or specific energy (Wh/kg) times battery mass (kg). Since new energy vehicle manufacturers must strictly control the space occupied by batteries in the body of a specific model, when the volume of the power battery is certain, the higher the energy density of the battery core, the greater the energy of the battery and the shorter the cruising range. The longer. Therefore, the country began to define the energy density of power batteries in 2017 [The energy density of the battery cells is called the single energy density. After the battery cells are PACKed into groups, the overall energy density will drop significantly. This energy density is called the system energy density. , the national policy assessment index of "system energy density" is included in the scope of subsidy assessment to promote the technological development of new energy vehicles and battery industries. To sum up, energy density is the most important indicator to consider when designing power batteries. The consistency of power batteries is another important indicator. The performance indicators of a single battery include energy, internal resistance, open circuit voltage, etc. There are many individual cells connected in series and parallel in the battery system (a Tesla uses as many as 5,000 to 7,000 cylindrical 18650 cells). If the internal resistance of many single cells cannot be kept highly consistent, when the same current flows, the cell with a large internal resistance will heat up, leading to safety accidents such as explosions. On the other hand, there is a short board effect in the energy and life of the battery system (determined by the battery with the smallest energy and shortest life in the system). Therefore, for power battery manufacturers, they must not only produce high-energy-density batteries in the laboratory, but also ensure strong consistency in the production of batteries in order to meet the battery requirements of car companies. Ensuring battery consistency requires relatively advanced battery production equipment, strict process control and related supporting technologies. There are often contradictions in pursuing various performance indicators of power batteries. For example, increasing battery energy density often reduces battery consistency, improving fast charging performance often reduces battery life, and increasing power often sacrifices battery energy density. To improve performance indicators in multiple aspects at the same time, companies need to improve their own equipment, technology, and management levels, and at the same time make trade-offs between multiple goals when designing products. 5. Classification Lithium-ion batteries can be divided into lithium cobalt oxide batteries, ternary batteries (lithium nickel cobalt manganate NCM or lithium nickel cobalt aluminate NCA), lithium manganate batteries, and lithium iron phosphate batteries according to different positive electrode materials. Among them, the ternary battery NCM can be classified according to the different ratios of the three metals, such as NCM111, NCM532, NCM622, NCM811, etc. Although lithium cobalt oxide batteries have high energy density, they are expensive and have poor safety, so they are mainly used in the 3C field. Although ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries, and lithium manganese oxide batteries are not as energy dense as lithium cobalt oxide batteries, they are widely used in the field of power batteries because of their obvious advantages in safety and cycleability. In 2017, shipments of lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries in the power battery market accounted for almost half each, with lithium manganate batteries accounting for a smaller share. Ternary materials have advantages in battery energy density, specific power, high-rate charging, and low-temperature resistance, but they are weaker than lithium iron phosphate batteries in terms of cost, cycleability, and safety. In addition to policy guidance factors, in the new energy vehicle market, the batteries used in passenger cars are mainly lithium iron phosphate, and the batteries used in cars are mainly ternary batteries. The ternary battery can be regarded as a hybrid upgraded version of lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate and lithium nickel oxide batteries. It neutralizes the advantages and disadvantages of the three batteries in terms of energy density, safety and cyclability, and has become a mainstream technology in the field of power batteries. One of the routes. According to the different proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese in the cathode material, ternary batteries can be subdivided into NCM111, NCM532, NCM622, NCM811, etc. For example, NCM532 is a ternary battery with a ratio of nickel, manganese, and cobalt of 5:3:2. Generally speaking, in ternary batteries, the higher the nickel content, the higher the energy density of the battery (see Table 6 for details), but the worse the safety. At present, the latest technology in the power battery industry is high-nickel ternary lithium batteries, mainly including NCA and NCM811. Among them, NCA is a mixture of nickel, cobalt and aluminum, with a common ratio of 8:1.5:0.5. The energy density of a single unit can reach 300Wh/kg, which is higher than the current NCM811 battery with an energy upper limit of about 280Wh/kg. It is currently the highest energy density in the world. The highest lithium-ion battery. The NCA production environment is extremely harsh, with high production costs and technical requirements. At present, for the latest high-nickel ternary lithium battery technology, Japan and South Korea mainly choose NCA, but the output is not high. The main reason is insufficient market demand. Domestic NCA technology is still immature, so NCM811 is mainly chosen in the high-nickel ternary field. Some cathode material companies and battery companies have shipped small batches, but the degree of commercialization is still low. With the continuous upgrading of industrial policy requirements, the continuous maturation of technology, and the rising demand for mid- to high-end vehicles in the downstream, it is expected that the market share of high-nickel batteries will gradually increase after 2020. In 2016, NCM111, NCM523 and NCM622 accounted for 61%, 34% and 5% respectively of the upstream ternary cathode material shipments. However, by the first quarter of 2018, MCM111 had withdrawn from the market, and NCM523's proportion increased to 78%, becoming the mainstream of the industry; at the same time, NCM622 increased to 14%, and high-nickel ternary materials were also shipped in small quantities. In terms of production lines, NCM532 and NCM622 batteries can basically be produced on the same production line by changing the ratio. However, since the high-temperature synthesis and assembly of high-nickel ternary (NCM811, NCA) cathode materials need to be carried out in a pure oxygen atmosphere, and the humidity control requirement is below 10%, companies need to redesign their factories and equipment, making it difficult to share production lines with other products. . Power batteries are divided into cylindrical batteries, square batteries and soft pack batteries according to their shape and packaging methods. Among them, cylindrical batteries and square batteries are hard-packed, and the shells are mainly steel shells or aluminum shells (low prices). Soft-pack battery casings are mainly made of aluminum-plastic film (expensive). From the perspective of development history, cylindrical batteries were the first battery packaging form used. At present, production has been standardized. The mainstream models are 18650 and 21700 [21700 cylindrical batteries. "21" refers to the battery diameter of 21mm, "70" refers to the height of 70mm, " 0” represents a cylindrical battery]. The square batteries that appeared later (generally using aluminum shells), the single battery volume is larger than the cylindrical battery, the gap is smaller when grouped, the battery pack has fewer structural parts per unit volume, and the weight is lighter. Therefore, in the single battery When batteries are assembled into a system, the energy density decreases even less [according to calculations by the Argonne Laboratory in the United States, the energy density decreases by about 40% after cylindrical batteries are assembled, and the energy density decreases by 30% after prismatic batteries are assembled]. In addition, the charge and discharge rate, cycle life and safety of square batteries are also better than those of cylindrical batteries. Therefore, in the context of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials (NCM523 and NCM611) being the mainstream, the current market is mainly square batteries, and cylindrical batteries are mainly used in mini cars and power tools, and in passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The sector has a low proportion [In the first half of 2018, among the 15.58GWh domestic battery installed capacity, square type accounted for 76%, and round type accounted for 76%.

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