New energy vehicles are currently a hot topic. In the declining auto market, sales reached 1.256 million vehicles last year, a year-on-year increase of 61.7%, unrivaled. According to predictions, by 2020, China's total sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units, of which production and sales in 2020 will reach 2 million units. A very simple calculation question, as many new energy vehicles as there are, there are as many power batteries to drive them. If this is used as a standard, recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries seems to be a good business. The opportunity has come. Calculated based on the service life of power batteries of 5-8 years. Calculated from the point when my country's new energy vehicles entered the rapid growth channel in 2014, the first batch of large-scale power batteries are close to their end of life, and this year It is considered by the industry to be the first year of the explosion of domestic power battery recycling. According to predictions from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, by 2020, the cumulative scrap volume of electric vehicle power batteries in my country will reach 120,000-170,000 tons, and its market size will exceed 30 billion yuan by 2022. A more embarrassing reality is that in the face of the surging wave of power battery scrapping, the market has not yet established a complete recycling network to make up for this ecological shortcoming. Battery manufacturers, car companies and even professional battery manufacturers in the industry chain Recycling companies haven't quite figured out how to dig up this gold mine. The "dead cycle" of power battery recycling. Power batteries are trapped in an "dead cycle". In addition to new energy vehicles as a new thing, which has not yet formed a complete ecological closed loop, there are also the following reasons: 1. The technical threshold is not limited by who wants to recycle it. For the recycling and utilization of power batteries, there are currently two methods recognized in the industry, one is echelon utilization, and the other is disassembly and recycling. From a technical perspective, both approaches have certain technical thresholds. First of all, echelon utilization refers to re-testing and screening of recycled power batteries, pairing them into groups, and using them in areas with lower battery performance requirements such as energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles. According to industry standards, the capacity of power batteries is reduced to 80%. The time limit for retirement is approaching. Although it is no longer suitable for automobiles, it can still use "waste heat" in other aspects, and there is a lot of room for utilization. However, when these batteries are reused, it is necessary to detect the electrochemical performance, life decay and other information of the batteries, and select batteries with similar data to group them. This can ensure the consistency of the batteries and the safety of the entire battery system. However, for a long time, new energy vehicle power batteries have not formed a unified standard, which has led to the change of power battery categories from the initial lead-acid batteries, to later nickel-cadmium batteries, nickel-hydrogen batteries, and now to the current ternary lithium batteries. There are so many, how to unify these batteries with different standards and different technical structures is not a simple matter. Secondly, power batteries with a capacity below 40% must enter the disassembly and recycling process. In theory, valuable metal elements such as nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium salts can be disassembled from retired power batteries and recycled into the manufacture of new batteries. Similar to step-by-step utilization, dismantling and recycling also has to face the situation of different brands and different types of batteries. Among them, the internal structure design of the battery, the series and parallel group form, the length of service and use time, the application model and the common working conditions are different. The disassembly plans must also be divided into categories, and the difficulty is not ordinary. 2. From a market perspective, if the profit of power battery recycling is high enough, the so-called technical threshold will definitely be leveled by capital, but the shameful reality is that before the scale effect is formed, the Before the scale effect, power battery recycling was still a "losing money" business. According to relevant reports, the most popular wet recycling method currently costs about 8,500 yuan for one ton of lithium iron phosphate batteries, but the price of recycled materials such as nickel, cobalt, manganese, and rare earth elements extracted from the battery cells is only 8,100 yuan. , which also means that the recycling company has to "refund" 400 yuan. In comparison, the dismantling and recycling profits of ternary lithium batteries are slightly better. However, since ternary power batteries are just completed iterative products and have only been put into use on a large scale in the past two years, the scrapping of this type of batteries is The deadline is still some time away. The unprofitable dilemma corresponds to the reality that the power battery recycling market is stagnant. 3. The residual value is too low, and car owners are "reluctant to sell" and are in a deadlock. Power battery recycling companies lack motivation, so are car owners willing to push power batteries into recycling channels? The reality is that the value retention rate of new energy vehicles is not high, and it only lasts for one year. new car, the price of the car will depreciate by half. Used cars can’t be sold at a high price, let alone retired batteries. From the perspective of car owners, the power battery is the most expensive core component of a car. The huge price difference between new and old batteries makes car owners less willing to retire old batteries. While hoping to buy at a low price, while hoping to sell at a high price, power battery recycling has reached a deadlock at the source. In addition, a noteworthy detail is that from a time perspective, it is correct that this year and next will be the climax of the retirement of the first batch of power batteries. However, according to sales statistics, the total sales of new energy vehicles nationwide from 2010 to 2013 was less than 50,000. This means that the total number of scrapped power batteries in the first batch is limited. It’s hard to make a meal without rice, and without sufficient recycling targets, it will naturally take time for the power battery recycling market to fully open. How to break the situation? Power battery recycling does face many obstacles at the current time point, but it is unavoidable that due to environmental protection and energy saving considerations, these retired batteries must enter recycling channels. From a market perspective, power battery recycling itself will not be the best in the future. It is also of great economic value. The problem that needs to be solved now is how to regulate the behavior of all parties in the industrial chain and establish an ecosystem or business model with clear responsibilities, rights and interests. Intelligent relativity believes that the following aspects can be considered. 1. Track the source and ensure that the battery flow is controllable. Since the outflow of power batteries will indeed cause environmental pollution and certain safety hazards, mandatory measures must be taken to allow retired batteries to enter legal recycling channels. If you want to "return the particles to the warehouse", you can imitate the management model of traditional fuel vehicles, code the batteries, and then bundle them with the vehicle's VI code and recycling code. This can ensure that after the batteries are scrapped, their flow can be controlled. 2. Whoever produces is responsible, and we cannot just take subsidies but fail to deal with the consequences. As we all know, China's new energy vehicle market has been matured by policies, and the country's huge subsidies have become the profit cows of many car companies. If battery recycling cannot enter the market in a short period of time and is a "dirty" and "tiring job", then should those car companies or battery manufacturers that have received subsidies be responsible for the "aftermath" of retired batteries? Stone can attack jade. Countries such as Germany, the United States, and Japan have established a very complete power battery recycling system of "who produces, who is responsible" and use legal forms to fix responsibilities. In this regard, if information disclosure is adopted, information on all links in the industrial chain is disclosed to the public, and a nationwide supervision mechanism is introduced, the development of the industry may be regulated to a certain extent. 3. Battery replacement mode or outlet The biggest difficulty in battery recycling is the traceability of the battery. Currently, some car companies have launched a "battery swap" service that separates the ownership of the battery and the car, and the car owner obtains it by paying a service fee. For charging or battery replacement services, since the ownership of the battery is in the hands of the operator, the tracking and monitoring of the battery are more controllable. Although the gap between brands is wide and it may be impractical to establish battery swap stations that serve all models, this business model is a very good solution.

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