For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it also needs a fixed hydrogen fueling place, just like a fuel vehicle needs a gas station. Since hydrogen is a controlled hazardous chemical in China, it is not convenient for ordinary people to access hydrogen. Lower than exposure to gasoline. The reason why hydrogen control is so strict is because as long as the volume concentration of hydrogen in the air is between 4.0% and 75.6%, it will explode when exposed to fire - far more dangerous than gasoline. It is precisely because of this "life extension method" that extends from fuel vehicles that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot allow consumers to complete the charging process at home like electric vehicles, and the refueling process cannot be done without people aside. Supervision, this undoubtedly has some "new" aspects compared to electric vehicles. Secondly, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is essentially an electric vehicle. The same thing as an electric vehicle is that both require a mature three-electric system; the difference is that it hangs the electric vehicle on the big electric vehicle under the chassis. The flat battery pack turns into several high-pressure hydrogen tanks of different volumes, and relies on a fuel cell pack to turn hydrogen into water and electricity through chemical reactions, and use the produced electricity to drive the vehicle. Therefore, in terms of working principle, a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is particularly like an extended-range electric vehicle, except that the gasoline and engine range-extending parts of the power system of this vehicle have become the hydrogen tank and fuel of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle respectively. Battery. This also means that the performance of the hydrogen fuel cell stack has become the "performance bottleneck" of this hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. At present, the power design of the hydrogen fuel cell stack of South Korea's Hyundai Motor's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle NEXO (picture below) is 120kW The design powers of the hydrogen fuel cell stacks of Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity are 114kW and 100kW respectively. In fact, this power level is the current performance limit of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. If you want to increase the power of the hydrogen fuel cell stack, the resulting increase in weight and volume will be unbearable for these products. . But most importantly, the rising costs caused by improving the performance of hydrogen fuel cell stacks will be the "last brick" that crushes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, because current hydrogen fuel cell stack technology relies heavily on the precious metal "platinum" to produce a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. Therefore, there is no so-called high-performance version of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently provided to private users. This makes it look closer to a conceptual product than traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. Now that we are talking about "platinum", we can talk about the uncertainty that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will bring to them due to their dependence on this metal. At present, the industrial applications of platinum mainly come from automobile exhaust purifiers, fuel cell vehicles, flat glass and other industries. Data from the Internet shows that of the 245 tons of platinum sold globally in 2010, 113 tons (46%) were used in the production of automotive catalytic converters; 76 tons (31%) were used in jewelry; and the remaining 35.5 tons were used in applications. In investment, electrodes, anti-cancer drugs, oxygen sensors, spark plugs and turbine engines, etc. Therefore, if fuel cell vehicles begin to be promoted on a large scale, as long as the basic fuel cell technology is not revolutionaryly optimized, the price of platinum in the international market will inevitably be pushed up (competing with fuel vehicles for platinum), thereby reducing our interest in petroleum. dependence has shifted to reliance on precious metal mineral resources. The distribution of platinum mines around the world is extremely uneven. According to online data, South Africa accounts for 82.3% of the world's total platinum reserves (currently discovered), so this is indeed not a good choice for countries with scarce mineral resources. information. Therefore, at present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are indeed unable to serve as a stand-alone new energy solution. When competing face-to-face with traditional fuel vehicles and emerging electric vehicles, the benefits it can bring to manufacturers, industries and consumers are also negligible. (In fact, no one can make a profit by manufacturing and selling hydrogen energy vehicles without relying on subsidies). However, if it is regarded as a "filling gap" product between traditional fuel vehicles and emerging electric vehicles, its meaning of existence is relatively clear. For example, we often complain about the serious pollution caused by traditional fuel buses and trucks, but it is technically difficult to convince customers to replace all these big polluters with electric vehicles, because logistics service providers value time like gold. , but you don’t have the public spirit to let you spend your precious time charging the mop head. But if hydrogen fuel cell technology is used to solve this problem, theoretically better results can be achieved: On the one hand, the product form of large commercial vehicles means that it is not sensitive to the volume and weight of the hydrogen fuel cell stack, so precious metals can be considered. It is not so dependent on technical strategies; at the same time, it is convenient to refill hydrogen fuel and does not need to carry a bulky battery pack, which also gives hydrogen fuel cell tractors and buses an inherent advantage over pure electric vehicles. At the same time, the characteristics of hydrogen as an excellent energy storage medium also mean that it is more suitable for the energy storage needs of distributed power generation systems than electricity. After all, with proper storage technology, hydrogen can be stored as reliably as fossil fuels, but batteries There is no way to do this (it will naturally run out of power). Therefore, relying on hydrogen as an energy storage medium is a very good solution in those remote areas. In fact, Toyota and Honda will add this in the instructions for their hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - when necessary (Japan has many earthquakes, which can easily lead to regional power outages), the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle can be used as a small energy station. For use, the electricity generated can supply a family with emergency supplies for a certain period of time. In fact, there are already mature cases of direct utilization of hydrogen in the aerospace field. The rocket used by the United States every time it launches the space shuttle uses liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen fuel (1:6 ratio). This fuel has a higher calorific value than traditional rocket fuels such as liquid oxygen kerosene and unbiased dimethylhydrazine. , it also provides a greater specific impulse, so this is also an important factor that attracts us to hydrogen energy. Based on what has been said above, what Che Yunji wants to express is: Hydrogen energy, as a form of energy that is clean enough in terms of results, needs to pay more attention to the energy consumption and energy consumption caused by the front-end production links and circulation links in the development process. Environmental pollution, if a large amount of fossil fuel is wasted in order to produce sufficiently clean hydrogen, it is very undesirable. At the same time, in the process of promotion and iteration of hydrogen fuel technology, it cannot be separated from the traditional fossil fuel system and the newer electric technology system. We must look for opportunities for it to upgrade the traditional energy system and make up for the electric system. Possible shortcomings, such as the NIO "nanny car" that has been making a lot of noise before. If the role of the fuel vehicle in it is replaced by a fuel cell vehicle, maybe the whole thing will not look so inconsistent. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have a long history of research in China, but they are extremely niche. Last year, nearly 29 million vehicles were sold in China, while the total domestic promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was less than 2,900 units. , can be said to be one in a million. What really caused widespread concern about hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was the Prime Minister's visit to Japan in the middle of this year. On May 11 this year, Premier Li Keqiang visited Toyota's Hokkaido factory. During the visit, Toyota specially displayed a new energy vehicle that represents its highest level of technology - the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Mirai. In the live pictures of the day, Akio Toyoda, the head of Toyota, played the role of keynote speaker; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe held the Mirai trunk with his hand, his pride looming; Premier Li Keqiang looked directly into the car, with seriousness written all over his face. Afterwards, some media interpreted that the Prime Minister had a "serious expression" when facing Japan's leading new energy technology. Although there are some elements of exaggeration, it is not unreasonable - the Mirai displayed by Toyota this time is not only a mass-produced car, but has also been iterated to the second version, and there is no hydrogen fuel cell passenger car that has been put into mass production in China. car. Also in 2018, just past November, domestic sales of pure electric vehicles reached 138,000 units per month. Compared with the booming trend of pure electric vehicles, the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China is extremely lagging behind. Seventeen years ago, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles actually had no lower status than pure electric vehicles in China's strategy for developing new energy vehicles. In 2001, the national "863" major electric vehicle project was launched. The Ministry of Science and Technology hired 13 experts to form a major special expert group, which proposed a significant "three vertical and three horizontal" overall route for the development of new energy vehicles in China. Among them, the "three horizontals" refer to multi-energy powertrain control systems, motors and their control systems, and batteries and their management systems, while the "three verticals" refer to hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles. It can be seen that the top-level design for the development of new energy vehicles seventeen years ago hoped for the coordinated development of hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, due to various reasons such as technical difficulty, industrial supporting facilities, emission regulations, and infrastructure construction, pure electric vehicles stood out and received further support from policies and markets, reaching the peak of domestic popularity. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which have the least foundation, have basically been relegated to the sidelines. After Premier Li Keqiang inspected Toyota Mirai this year, the industry's attention to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles increased significantly. One expert is sure to be excited about this. Among the original thirteen experts on the major new energy vehicle project, one was in charge of research on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. He was Wan Gang, the leader of the expert team at that time and the former Minister of Science and Technology. Among the major projects, Wan Gang, as the first project leader, undertook the hydrogen fuel cell car project. While pure electric vehicles are experiencing rapid development, Wan Gang is still emphasizing the timely development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. After resigning as Minister of Science and Technology in March this year, Wan Gang made frequent public appearances - in June and November, Wan Gang spoke out for hydrogen fuel cells at the "Hydrogen Energy Industry Innovation and Development Forum" and the CPPCC Biweekly Consultation Symposium. . The most recent time was when Wan Gang personally published an article of support in the People's Daily. With the "care" of the Prime Minister and the unsparing support of the former Minister of Science and Technology, hydrogen fuel cells received multiple peaks of media attention in 2018. As of December this year, a total of more than 70 hydrogen fuel cell models have appeared in the domestic "Recommended New Energy Vehicle Catalog", an increase of more than 200% compared to last year. At the same time, more than ten cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Hangzhou have introduced policies to support the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Data shows that domestic investment plans for hydrogen energy this year have exceeded 200 billion yuan in hydrogen energy towns and industrial parks, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, upstream raw material projects, etc.! For a time, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles came out of the shadows and came to the stage. So, what are the advantages of the "counterattack" hydrogen fuel cell vehicle? Battery life and charging beat pure electric vehicles, but sales are embarrassingly low. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicles currently on the market all use proton exchange membrane technology, which separates hydrogen into hydrogen ions and electrons through an electrolyte membrane. The hydrogen ions pass through the membrane. It combines with oxygen to form water, and the electrons detour to form directional motion, generating electric current. Cars driven by this technology can be regarded as a model of environmental protection. The "exhaust gas" emitted by this car is actually water, which can even be drank directly. Judging from Mr. Wan Gang's work experience, he obviously has feelings for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (it is worth mentioning that his major during school was internal combustion engines), but Wan Gang insists on working for the surging pure electric wave. The voice of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles includes not only emotions, but also many in-depth thoughts on technology and industry. As we all know, although pure electric vehicles are environmentally friendly, their cruising range and charging time have become common criticisms among current fuel vehicle owners. At present, the NEDC cruising range of the best domestic pure electric vehicles is just over 500 kilometers. In order to achieve this cruising range, vehicles often need to be equipped with 500-600 kilograms of battery packs. Moreover, because the NEDC battery life test standards are loosely set, the mileage in actual use is often discounted by 70-20%. If you are facing high-speed working conditions, the mileage will attenuate even more. In terms of charging time, even if most pure electric vehicles use fast charging, it takes 40 minutes to charge the battery to a high capacity (80%) under ideal circumstances. Not to mention, the vehicle-to-pile ratio of China's new energy vehicles has just exceeded 4:1, car owners who do not have their own piles often encounter difficulties in finding piles. Hydrogen fuel vehicles can solve these two problems well. In terms of battery life, the energy density of hydrogen fuel is much higher than that of lithium batteries—it is currently 7 times that of the latter per unit volume. Take Toyota's Mirai as an example. It uses two round bottles with a total volume of 130L to load only 5 kilograms of hydrogen and drive a 1.8-ton car body. However, its EPA cruising range has exceeded 500 kilometers, and its efficiency far exceeds that of lithium-ion batteries. On the issue of charging - for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it is hydrogenation. The whole process is roughly the same as refueling and only takes 3-5 minutes. For pure electric vehicles, Tesla's supercharger takes nearly 1.5 hours to fully charge. Even the speed-competitive battery swapping route has been proven to actually take 10-20 minutes in NIO's actual operations. It should be noted that the cruising range (essentially a battery energy density issue) and charging time issues faced by pure electric vehicles will be difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the future due to limitations of physical laws. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are a perfect combination of the long range and convenient energy replenishment of fuel vehicles and the zero emissions of pure electric vehicles. Therefore, in the eyes of many people in the industry, hydrogen energy vehicles are the ultimate route for new energy vehicles. Persisting in the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been given strategic significance to seize the commanding heights of new energy technology. However, even if we look at the world, the share of hydrogen fuel vehicles in the passenger car market is pitifully small. The only real hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the market are Toyota's Mirai, Honda's Clarity, and Hyundai's ix35 (now updated to NEXO). The total sales last year did not exceed 6,000 units. It can be said that so far, global car companies’ commercial exploration of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles has failed. There is no other reason - the benefits of hydrogen fuel cell cars are not enough to offset their purchase and use costs. Toyota's Mirai sells for about 350,000 yuan in Japan, and Honda's Clarity sells for more than 400,000 yuan before subsidies. Honda is even afraid that it will be too expensive to sell, so Honda adopts a rental-only promotion method for some vehicles. When hydrogenation is needed, Japanese hydrogen fuel cell car owners will find that there are no more than 100 hydrogenation stations distributed across Japan, which means that their driving radius is highly restricted. The long-term cost of using hydrogen for hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles is not as good as the low electricity price of pure electric vehicles. In terms of convenience, hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars are not as good as fuel cars or hybrid cars - Honda's own Accord Hybrid model has an ultimate range of 1,000 kilometers on a tank of fuel, and can be refueled anywhere; compared with long-term use of a car In terms of cost, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot compare with economical pure electric vehicles - they are also Japanese new energy vehicles. The cumulative sales of Nissan's pure electric vehicle Leaf have exceeded200,000 units. Hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, which were originally intended to combine the advantages of fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles, have shown their disadvantages compared to both, and have been caught in the middle and struggled to survive. Is the technology of Toyota and Honda not good enough? Not necessarily. In fact, the hydrogen fuel cell technology mastered by the two companies can fully meet the needs of industrialization, but it is not a wise choice to enter the passenger car market as soon as they enter the market. Hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars cannot be installed at home like charging piles to replenish hydrogen, so their demand for hydrogen refueling stations, like gas stations, must be sufficient and dense enough. However, the transportation and storage costs of hydrogen have remained high. The cost of building a hydrogen refueling station is five times that of a gas station. With global sales of less than 6,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles per year, it is currently a question of whether a hydrogen refueling station can serve 500 vehicles per year. They are generally in a state of loss. If one hydrogen refueling station is built at a loss, the government and enterprises will naturally be unwilling to build more hydrogen refueling stations. As a result, a typical chicken-and-egg problem was born - the relevant parties could not see the profit expectations of hydrogenation stations, resulting in insufficient construction of hydrogenation stations; while consumers were bearing the high price of cars, they also faced the trouble of hydrogenation and could not afford it. Promote the purchase of hydrogen fuel cell models. It is understandable that the sales of Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity cannot increase. Commercial vehicles first - China's road to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Turning back to China, although the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles was included in the plan in 2001, domestic passenger car companies have limited success in commercializing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Achievements are currently zero. In a forum in June, Wan Gang pointed out the gap between domestic and foreign technologies in terms of technology: 1. The average volume power of domestic car companies in hydrogen fuel cell stacks is 2KW/L, and Mirai has exceeded 3KW/L. 2. The use of platinum, the key catalyst for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, in the most advanced foreign technology is only one-fifth of that in China. 3. The most critical membrane electrode, the service life of foreign products can be three times that of domestic products - 9,000 hours. 4. Foreign air compressors are more efficient, which directly affects the efficiency and power output of the stack. Obviously, it is very difficult to catch up with Japanese technology in hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars, and even if we catch up, we will face a bleak market. Therefore, when the technology is immature, it is better to slow down the promotion of hydrogen fuel cells in passenger cars. Combined with the country’s early experience in promoting pure electric vehicles through public transportation, a route to develop Chinese-style hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has emerged—starting with commercial vehicles. At this time, commercial vehicles have begun to electrify. On the one hand, emission regulations are becoming increasingly tight, and high-emission diesel engines need to be replaced; on the other hand, low electricity prices help reduce operating costs. However, the low energy density of power batteries has become a concern for commercial vehicles. Take a domestic 30-seat 8-meter pure electric bus as an example. When equipped with a 95KWh battery, its cruising range is only 115 kilometers. Moreover, when there is no dramatic breakthrough in battery energy density, stack batteries are ineffective—most of the increased battery capacity will be used to carry the battery itself. Therefore, long-distance transportation, which has strict requirements on cruising range, is currently a restricted area for pure electric vehicles. This is exactly where hydrogen fuel cells come in. The two characteristics of commercial vehicles perfectly match their characteristics and development needs. 1. Commercial vehicles are larger and can carry more hydrogen, maximizing the advantages of hydrogen’s high energy density and obtaining ultra-long cruising range. 2. The operating routes and times of commercial vehicles are usually relatively fixed, and there is no requirement for the density of hydrogen refueling stations. For cluster business, one station can meet the needs of a hydrogen fuel cell commercial fleet. At present, in the domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry environment, commercial vehicle companies are indeed taking the lead: Yutong and Foton have already entered the market in small batches of hydrogen fuel cell buses, and SAIC Maxus’ commercial vehicles have started manned trial operations. Dongfeng, FAW, and Shaanxi Automobile are also building their own hydrogen fuel cell models. This year, the cumulative number of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in China has just exceeded 1,200 - a number that seems not worth mentioning. However, industry insiders analyzed from Chexixi that the current situation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is very similar to the development of pure electric vehicles in 2011-2012, with commercial vehicles taking the lead, and the maturity of the underlying infrastructure and industrial chain accelerating. In 2018, 13 hydrogen refueling stations were put into use in China, and 20 more are under construction. According to the "Technical Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles", 100 hydrogenation stations will be built in China in 2020, and 5,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be launched in the country. In 2025, 50,000 vehicles will be launched, and in 2030, 1 million vehicles will be launched. At the same time, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan and other places have introduced detailed rules to encourage the development of hydrogen fuel vehicles. Industry insiders predict that the promotion of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will exceed the target of 5,000 vehicles in 2020. Because in the upstream of the industry, Weichai, which mainly manufactures commercial vehicle engines, officially announced its entry into the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle power systems this year; Shanghai's power system that reshapes energy production has been used in more than 500 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles; the battery stack is key For membrane electrodes, domestic company Hongji Innovation has added a new production capacity of 100,000 square meters... Entering 2018, the industrialization speed of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is obviously accelerating. But what needs to be mentioned here is that experts, including Wan Gang, do not believe that the current development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will conflict with pure electric vehicles. Ouyang Minggao, the current leader of the major new energy vehicle expert group, said, "After many practices, lithium-ion battery systems are more suitable to replace gasoline engines, and hydrogen fuel cell systems are more suitable to replace diesel engines." This also means that in the future, In the future, the passenger car market will still be dominated by pure electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will enter the commercial vehicle field to supplement the shortcomings of pure electric vehicles and hybrid models. There is no phenomenon that the domestic new energy vehicle development route has taken a big turn and pure electric vehicles will be replaced as interpreted by the outside world. Conclusion: Taking another leg towards new energy vehicles. Since being included in the national three-vertical development plan for new energy vehicles seventeen years ago, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have had a troubled life. In November 2018, China’s new energy vehicle sales included 138,000 pure electric vehicles and 38,000 hybrid models. You can’t even see statistics on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. However, the development process of pure electric vehicles has exposed obvious shortcomings, which require the development of other categories of new energy vehicles to make up for it. In fact, this was also the intention of the “Three Verticals and Three Horizontals” plan 17 years ago. In particular, when global energy conservation and emission reduction regulations are further squeezing the living space of hybrid models and the future of hybrid new energy vehicles becomes increasingly uncertain, another "thigh" of new energy vehicles needs to grow up and be launched immediately. Live. In this way, the domestic new energy vehicle product system will be sound and can meet the various needs of consumers and society.

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