Time:2024.12.24Browse:0
The International Energy Agency (IEA) once assumed in the "Energy Technology Outlook 2010" that if there are 500 million electric vehicles (EV) and 800 million plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) on the road in 2050, the world will Reduce 2.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions. According to the vision described in the "EV and PHEV Technology Roadmap" released by the IEA, by 2050, the average annual sales of EV and PHEV will reach 50 million vehicles, achieving widespread application around the world, and significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fossil fuel consumption. . Industry insiders say that to achieve the ambitious 2050 sales target, countries need to sell as many EVs and PHEVs as possible between 2015 and 2020. By 2020, the combined annual sales of global EVs and PHEVs will reach at least 5 million vehicles. Current problems to be solved include increasing the number of vehicle models, reasonably improving the productivity of various vehicle models, reducing battery costs, and providing sufficient charging infrastructure. Among them, lithium batteries are the key technology that EVs and PHEVs need to focus on improving. The roadmap points out that the future improvement direction of battery technology lies in three aspects, namely, increasing the storage capacity of the battery, increasing the number of discharge cycles of the battery, and improving the durability of the battery. The IEA predicts that after 2015, new chemical batteries with higher energy density will be developed and applied to EVs and PHEVs with all-electric driving range. This new type of battery will use high-capacity cathode materials, alloy electrodes and electrolytes with a stable voltage of 5 volts. It is understood that currently, the U.S. Department of Energy is supporting exploratory research on several new lithium-ion chemical batteries. The plan involves research on lithium alloy/high-voltage cathode materials, lithium-sulfur batteries, lithium metal batteries/lithium polymer batteries, etc. These policies will accelerate technological improvement, development and application. In addition, new battery chemistries that can increase energy density will bring important changes to battery design. This means energy storage systems require fewer active materials, battery cells, and hardware components, and these improvements will make EVs and PHEVs lighter, smaller, and cheaper. The roadmap also proposes that governments should vigorously encourage and support promising battery manufacturers, especially those with innovative technologies, to ensure that investment costs and risks do not hinder the construction and development of battery manufacturing plants. In order to cope with the increase in EV and PHEV production and capacity expansion, all manufacturers must ensure sufficient investment in batteries and production materials. To avoid supply bottlenecks, the supply of lithium and rare earth metals and their costs are also areas that should be focused on in the medium term. It is worth noting that EVs and PHEVs need to meet different standards related to their performance to maximize their market potential. Therefore, performance indicators such as vehicle original cost, efficiency and annual combustion cost, maintenance costs, electric driving range, charging speed, carbon dioxide and pollutant emissions will play an important role in the market promotion of EV and PHEV. EVs and PHEVs should strive to achieve comparable performance levels and value to internal combustion engine vehicles of similar size and purpose. The roadmap recommends establishing unified indicators around the world that can represent the characteristics of EVs and PHEVs in the short term. According to IEA analysis, successful implementation of the roadmap requires coordination of the interests of all parties. For example, ensure that EVs and PHEVs are cost-competitive, provide adequate charging infrastructure and ensure power supply; pay attention to the research on user consumption needs and consumer behavior, strengthen data collection and analysis, and formulate market strategies based on this and assist the government in formulating Correct industrial policy. The IEA also pointed out in the road map that governments should strengthen cooperation to ensure a coordinated development direction, while adopting the most efficient methods to accelerate technological development. Especially in terms of shared technology research and development, software and hardware resources in areas such as charging infrastructure should be shared, and countries should jointly discuss outstanding issues such as the supply of lithium materials and rare earth metals. Automakers, battery manufacturers, power companies and other stakeholders will also need to work together with governments to achieve this goal.
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