▌Automotive electrification is the main source of demand for power batteries. In 2017, global new energy vehicle sales exceeded 1.223 million units, an increase of 58% over 2016, pushing global new energy vehicle sales to account for more than 1% of total global vehicle sales for the first time. Since 2012, the production and sales of new energy vehicles at home and abroad have continued to grow rapidly, with a compound growth rate of 54% in the past five years. As of the end of 2017, the global cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have reached nearly 4 million units, accounting for 0.3% of the global vehicle population. Among them, China’s cumulative sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded 1.6 million units, accounting for 42% of the global cumulative total. Excluding China Major markets also include the United States, Japan, and European countries such as Norway and Germany. The cumulative sales of the top ten consumer countries account for 93% of the global total. Domestic new energy vehicle production and sales increased from less than 10,000 units in 2011 to nearly 800,000 units in 2017, with a six-year compound growth rate of more than 100%. In 2017, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and have continued to maintain growth since 2018. High growth. In the first seven months, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of nearly 80%, accounting for more than 3% of total domestic vehicle sales. The trend of vehicle electrification has become clear. According to the power source and cruising range of new energy vehicles, electric vehicles can be divided into mild hybrid electric vehicles (with less charge and the main function is to reduce start-stop fuel consumption), hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ( PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV). Pure electric vehicles can be divided into low-end (less than 250km), mid-range (250~380km) and high-end electric vehicles (more than 380km) according to the length of their cruising range. Generally speaking, the cruising range of pure electric vehicles is determined by the amount of electricity carried by the car. , 1kWh of electricity can drive the car for 5-7km. As the main source of power for electric vehicles, power batteries are the biggest beneficiary of vehicle electrification. Benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of the new energy vehicle industry, the shipment volume of power batteries has been rising steadily, and its proportion in lithium battery applications has increased rapidly. In 2017, total global lithium battery shipments reached 148.1GWh, of which total power battery shipments reached 62.35GWh. Energy storage battery shipments also grew rapidly, with energy storage battery shipments reaching 10.4GWh in 2017. Since 2014, the compound growth rate of power batteries and energy storage batteries has reached 80% and 77% respectively. The compound growth rate of traditional consumer batteries is only 7%. The new demand in the lithium battery industry will be dominated by power batteries and energy storage batteries. . Domestic lithium battery shipments also show a similar trend. Before 2013, small battery shipments accounted for more than 90%. By 2017, the proportion of power batteries and energy storage batteries had reached 55%.

　　▌The switching of driving forces for new energy vehicles will not change the high growth of the battery industry. Cost-effectiveness determines the process of vehicle electrification. Battery cost is the key driver. As a mass consumer product, cost-effectiveness is the fundamental factor that determines its technical route. Compared with fuel vehicles, the differences between electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles mainly include the following aspects: Structurally, electric vehicles use power batteries to replace fuel engines, and the powertrain system of fuel vehicles is simplified, and the cost difference also comes from this; In terms of performance, due to the low energy density of power batteries and limited fast charging capabilities, the cruising range and charging experience of electric vehicles are still inferior to those of fuel vehicles. However, as the charge capacity of electric vehicles increases, "range anxiety" has become larger. In order to alleviate; In terms of cost, since the cost of power batteries is still high, the purchase cost of electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles. At the same time, the use cost of electric vehicles is lower. The advantage depends on the annual driving distance and the fuel price/electricity price ratio. We built a model to study the purchase cost and total cost of ownership (TCO) of different models. Under baseline conditions, the purchase cost of an ordinary fuel vehicle is 196,000 yuan, the purchase cost of an electric vehicle of the same grade is 246,000 yuan, and the battery cost is 1,500 yuan/kWh (tax included); the operating life is 8 years, and the vehicle is driven 15,000 times per year. kilometers, and the residual value of the vehicle is 60,000 yuan and 40,000 yuan respectively. During the operation period, the TCO of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles were 213,000 yuan and 248,000 yuan respectively. In comparison, the purchase cost of fuel vehicles is still more competitive, and the fuel cost of electric vehicles still has obvious advantages despite relatively high electricity prices. The cost of batteries has a very obvious impact on the TCO and purchase price of electric vehicles. When other factors remain unchanged, when the battery price drops to 900-1,000 yuan/kWh, the TCO of electric vehicles is basically the same as that of fuel vehicles. Ordinary passenger car consumers will be more motivated to purchase new energy vehicles. When the battery cost further drops below 700 yuan/kWh, the purchase cost of pure electric vehicles can compete with fuel vehicles, and their penetration rate will enter a stage of accelerated growth. . Based on this, we divide the development stages of electric vehicles into the "pre-TCO parity" stage, the TCO parity stage and the purchase cost parity stage. In the pre-TCO parity stage, as costs were still uncompetitive, the rapid growth of electric vehicles in the past few years was mainly driven by policies, especially subsidy policies. At this time, the industry was in a subsidy-driven period; with the decline in battery costs, The TCO of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles is constantly approaching. In some application scenarios, electric vehicles even have a TCO cost advantage. At this time, using some non-subsidized industrial policies to push up the cost of fuel vehicles can further increase the penetration rate of electric vehicles. At this time, the industry is driven by policy pressure; once the battery cost breaks through the critical point, the purchase cost of electric vehicles will take advantage, and the industry will also transition to a consumption-driven stage. The internal reason for the driving force switch is the rapid decline in power battery costs and the continued enhancement of the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles. The external reason is the adjustment of industrial policies.

　　▌Subsidy policies help new energy vehicles complete the market introduction. Although the cost of power batteries has dropped rapidly from 1,000$/kWh in 2009 to the current 150~170$/kWh, the purchase cost and full cost of use of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are still far away. Higher than traditional fuel vehicles. According to BNEF research, the cost of a small fuel-powered vehicle in the United States in 2018 was approximately US$18,000, of which the cost of the powertrain system was approximately US$5,500, while the cost of the battery system and power system of an electric vehicle was close to US$12,000. Therefore, the most effective policy so far remains Mainly direct subsidies - such as China's purchase subsidies for various models and the US tax credit of US$7,500 per vehicle for car companies with sales of less than 200,000 vehicles - are used to narrow the cost gap between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles. Driven by subsidies and other related policies, the introduction of new energy vehicles around the world has been very rapid. In 2012, the global sales of new energy vehicles accounted for less than 0.2%. By 2017, the market share had risen to 1.26%. Entering 2018, global new energy vehicles continue to maintain a surge in growth. According to statistics, global electric vehicle sales reached 760,000 units in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 69%, and the overall market share reached 1.6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in major overseas markets is accelerating. In the first half of the year, European electric vehicle sales increased by 43% year-on-year, with registrations reaching 185,000 units, and the market share increased to 2.2%. Electric vehicle sales in the United States also exceeded 100,000 units. , reaching 122,000 vehicles, 53% of which were pure electric vehicles, with a market share of 1.4%, a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points. The market introduction of new energy vehicles in China has gone through three stages and lasted for more than ten years. Among them, 2003-2008 is the technology verification and science and technology demonstration project stage. The landmark event is the world's largest Olympic new energy vehicle demonstration operation carried out at the Beijing Olympics, with a total of 595 energy-saving and new energy vehicles invested; the second stage is The first phase of the "Ten Cities, Thousands of Vehicles" new energy vehicle promotion project from 2009 to 2012, during which large-scale demonstration operations of new energy vehicles were carried out in 25 pilot cities, promoted a total of 27,000 new energy vehicles; the third phase It is the second phase of the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” demonstration project from 2013 to 2015. At the specific policy level, in 2009, the State Council issued the "Automotive Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", which for the first time put forward the policy guidance of "launching national energy-saving and new energy vehicle demonstration projects, and the central government will arrange funds to provide subsidies." In the same year, the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Carrying out Pilot Work on the Demonstration and Promotion of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles", which clarified that subsidies will be provided for the purchase of new energy vehicles in the public service areas of pilot cities. The era of new energy vehicle subsidies in the public sector has officially arrived. At that time, a pure electric vehicle could receive up to 60,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy funds. Plug-in hybrids (default fuel saving rate of more than 40%) could generally receive 50,000 yuan/vehicle in state subsidy funds. Pure electric vehicles The subsidy for buses is as high as 500,000 yuan per vehicle. Stimulated by strong subsidies, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales have continued to rise. In 2015, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 330,000 units, accounting for more than 1% of new vehicle sales for the first time. Global sales of new energy vehicles that year were The proportion exceeds 50%. At this point, the development of China's new energy vehicle industry has reached an irreversible turning point, and the introduction period has basically ended. In 2017, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country accounted for 2.6% of the total vehicle sales. In the first seven months of 2018, the proportion was as high as 2.84%. The penetration rate of China's new energy vehicles has reached the forefront of the world.

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