When will the emerging Ni-MH batteries technology be used in cars?

It is worth our attention to see whether the technological breakthroughs of lithium batteries and post-lithium batteries can have an impact on existing electric vehicles from the right beginning. As various Ni-MH batteries materials and advanced Ni-MH batteries research results are promoted in the media to improve our vehicles, there is no direct connection with the actual R&D and product progress of major Ni-MH batteries companies, which makes us doubt the current situation. This article mainly sorts out the maturity paths of currently available cells, cells under development, materials under development and new Ni-MH batteries technologies under research, and explores the patents, materials and process improvement processes generated in various research around the world, as well as late-stage laboratories and mid-term tests, and how to track the dynamics of these Ni-MH batteries technologies to see if they are meaningful to our electric vehicle business. From another perspective, we also observe from the perspective of the industrial chain, focusing on the development dynamics of major supply chain companies in terms of Ni-MH batteries products and Ni-MH batteries materials.

The innovation of lithium batteries mainly depends on the basic research of Ni-MH batteries materials. As shown in the figure below, the first step is to evaluate the availability in terms of material research. Compromise research is not an improvement in physical properties, but involves a lot of experimental verification, so the material R&D cycle is long and the investment is large. In the second stage, the amount of materials is enlarged and the low-cost process technology of materials is evaluated. In these two stages, it still takes 10-20 years from technology research and development to commercial promotion. In the third stage, the Ni-MH batteries cell companies design the Ni-MH batteries cells and the supporting Ni-MH batteries cell processing according to different size specifications, and make Ni-MH batteries cell samples of various shapes. The fourth stage enters the commercialization stage, and evaluates and tests according to customer requirements in various markets, and continuously improves the characteristics of the Ni-MH batteries cells, including safety, performance and life. From the history of research and development and commercialization of lithium batteries, it can be found that the main research and development direction of lithium batteries is to improve the conductivity and energy density of materials, and because the positive electrode material has a smaller specific capacity than the negative electrode material, the research and development is mainly concentrated in the field of positive electrode materials. Frontier research constitutes patents, and companies with technical patents can take the lead in opening up the market, and can consolidate technical barriers and form a unique advantage by applying for patent appeals and other means.

So we first judge the research on batteries, or start from different materials, and then observe the progress of Ni-MH batteries cell companies in material evaluation. In the short term, batteries of certain specifications and sizes will still move forward little by little at a speed of several Ah. Improve the utilization rate of physical shape, combined with the exploration of internal Ni-MH batteries cell design.

From the perspective of materials, the batteries we can see in the short term within 3 years will be mainly 622 and 811, and the related Ni-MH batteries cell design will be continuously improved around this positive electrode material.

At this point in the article, I also want to write about the current concerns. From the release of the roadmap of power batteries to the current situation, the main technical route of batteries is based on the ternary dominated by Japan and South Korea. South Korean Ni-MH batteries companies LG and Samsung SDI started research and development in 1998 and 1999 respectively, and gradually surpassed Japanese technology. Japanese and Korean Ni-MH batteries manufacturers mainly adopt the ternary technology route and have more than 20 years of consumer Ni-MH batteries and more than 10 years of power Ni-MH batteries research and development history. As shown in the figure below, batteries based on ternary are the mainstream models currently in production in the next 2-3 years.

In addition, it will be immediately available to see the reduction of subsidies at the national level. What kind of Ni-MH batteries can meet the requirements of no subsidies and focus on safety assessment? Our main means now is to rely on scale, tons of production capacity on the material side and Gwh of production capacity on the Ni-MH batteries side. In 2017, my country's cathode material output was 207,000 tons, and NCM output was about 84,000 tons. It will take some time to gradually tackle the production stability and Ni-MH batteries safety of high-nickel ternary materials such as NCM111, 523, NCM622, NCM811, and NCA. From this perspective, we see that the various research levels reported by the media may not be able to be put into the car until 5 or even 10 years later. At present, it is mainly the patent value of various research and development institutions, which is difficult to implement in the car all at once. The 300Wh/kg scientific research Ni-MH batteries product we reported before is about 3 years away from fully meeting the requirements for vehicle use. For everyone, distant water cannot quench the thirst. Objectively speaking, the iteration of Ni-MH batteries cells during this period is also relatively fast, and we need to divide our energy to summarize the problems of the vehicles built before, so as to continuously improve our requirements for Ni-MH batteries cells.

Note: To ensure the safety of Ni-MH batteries cells, whether to strictly abide by the abuse and thermal runaway assessment of Ni-MH batteries cells, and how to meet the requirements of more powerful and higher energy density batteries at all levels, these are engineering challenges.

As an engineer, I also want to live in the world of media, with an achievement today and a discovery tomorrow, leading everyone to overcome the bottleneck of the Ni-MH batteries system of electric vehicles. Ni-MH batteries technology can turn a young man into a master by grinding an iron rod into a needle. We must be prepared for a long-term battle.

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