The commercialization of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles faces three hurdles: technology, cost, and business model

"Looking to the future, the technical route is the ultimate issue. A disruptive technical route must win in the competition among many technical routes. It must gain advantages in technology and cost, and it must also work in the business model." Zhang Xiyong, general manager of BAIC Group, believes that the commercialization of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles currently faces three hurdles:

The first is the technical hurdle. At present, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the core indicators of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles such as the stack volume power density, low temperature performance, and gas cylinder pressure. The gap between the core components such as proton exchange membranes, bipolar plates, and high-pressure gas cylinders can be seen from the indicators of the leading and catching up companies.

The current development status of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles is basically similar to that of pure electric vehicles ten years ago. With the attention and investment from all aspects, the technology and performance of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles are expected to make great breakthroughs in the next few years.

The second is the cost hurdle. At present, from the perspective of material purchase cost and use cost, hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles are higher than pure electric vehicles, and they cannot compete with traditional fuel vehicles.

In terms of material purchase costs, the price of domestic commercial vehicle battery stacks is about 15,000 yuan per kilowatt, the price of 30-kilowatt battery stacks is about 500,000 yuan, and the price of 60-kilowatt battery stacks is close to 1 million yuan, accounting for more than half of the price of the whole vehicle. The price of pure electric vehicle power batteries with the same performance is only about 30% of its price, calculated at 1.2 yuan per kWh, and the price of power batteries will continue to fall.

In terms of use costs, different countries have different resource endowments, different technical levels, and differences in hydrogen preparation, resulting in a large price gap for end users.

At present, the low market price of hydrogen in China is about 40 yuan per kilogram, of which the transportation price accounts for a considerable proportion. China uses high-pressure gas cylinders for transportation, and each vehicle transports more than 200 kilograms of hydrogen, with a transportation cost of 5 yuan per 100 kilometers; the United States uses liquid hydrogen for transportation, and each vehicle transports four to five tons, with a transportation cost of less than 1 yuan per kilogram per 100 kilometers.

Taking buses as an example, the cost of using hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteriess is more than double that of pure electric vehicles and more than 50% higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, based on the gas price of 40 yuan per kilogram, the electricity price of 0.5-1 yuan per kilowatt-hour, and the diesel price of 6.8 yuan per liter.

From the perspective of future development, if we want to overcome the cost barrier, we must significantly reduce the price of the battery stack to less than 500 yuan per kilowatt through technological upgrades and scale expansion in terms of vehicles. At the same time, we must reduce the terminal hydrogen use price to less than 15 yuan per kilogram through the advancement of hydrogen production costs and liquid hydrogen storage and transportation technology.

The third is the business model barrier, that is, the scenario barrier. From the perspective of the product's own characteristics, hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles have more advantages in the use scenario of a long range of more than 300 kilometers. From the perspective of hydrogen production, storage, and refueling, it is more scientific and reasonable to centrally deploy hydrogen refueling stations within 100 kilometers of the hydrogen production site in areas with good conditions. The amount of hydrogen should be as stable as possible to avoid large fluctuations.

Combining the above characteristics, we can outline the commercialization scenarios of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles, such as medium- and long-distance logistics and small-scale logistics vehicles, represented by buses, shuttle buses, shuttle buses, taxis, and forklifts. Some cities in China have already promoted these directions.

"Combining the above three barriers, we judge that as the cost of the whole vehicle drops significantly in the next few years, demonstration and promotion are expected to increase rapidly in some regions and application scenarios." Zhang Xiyong believes that in the long run, the price of hydrogen, total production capacity and regional layout of production capacity will affect the status of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles in multiple technical routes.

To this end, Zhang Xiyong gave three suggestions:

First, organize domestic automobile companies, energy companies, technology companies, research and development institutions, and universities to form industrial alliances, set up special funds, and introduce technology, cooperate in technology, and incubate industries to support the research of basic common technologies and core key technologies, and provide strong support for technological breakthroughs;

Second, comprehensively consider the energy efficiency and emission reduction effects of hydrogen energy and hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles throughout their life cycle, and use policy levers such as subsidies, taxes, and carbon trading to support the accelerated promotion of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles;

Third, comprehensively consider factors such as hydrogen production conditions and emission reduction needs, select a number of cities to carry out pilot promotion of hydrogen CR2032 button cell batteries vehicles, and determine commercial promotion and hydrogen refueling facility construction from the perspective of market segmentation; strengthen policy guidance and support from the perspectives of policy guidance, promotion planning, and promotion and operation subsidies; explore the construction model of hydrogen refueling stations, gas stations, and charging stations to solve the problems of difficult urban land use and safety management of hydrogen refueling stations.

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